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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Choices Jessb 2y 6 | J M Liles — 17% R388 W65 P187 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | - | 33 (1) | 23 (3) | 22 (5) | 21 (4) | 22 (4) | 27 (3) | 27 (3) | 25 (3) | 32 (2) | 32 (1) | 22 | 21 | 18 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Melbury Meteord 2y 14 | A Welch — 13% R303 W40 P141 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 23 (5) | 36 (1) | 21 (5) | 32 (2) | 33 (2) | 26 (5) | 36 (1) | 30 (1) | 26 (2) | - | 41 | 47 | 48 | 46 | 29 | 30 | 4 | 4/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ballygogue Jetd 3y 16 | A Welch — 13% R303 W40 P141 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 21 (5) | 57 (2) | 60 (3) | 48 (5) | 37 (6) | 35 (2) | 34 (3) | 65 (6) | 62 (5) | 55 (6) | 22 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 29 | 19 | 1 | 5/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Brinkleys Lilab 2y 7 | V A Lea — 14% R148 W21 P58 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 26 (3) | 32 (1) | 27 (3) | 24 (2) | 23 (4) | 21 (4) | 19 (5) | 20 (5) | 28 (3) | 25 (5) | 28 | 26 | 16 | 21 | 25 | 26 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ St Edmunds Joed 2y 9 | P B Philpott — 18% R129 W23 P72 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 31 (2) | 32 (1) | 31 (1) | 28 (2) | 20 (4) | 49 (5) | 26 (5) | 21 (3) | 24 (5) | - | 27 | 29 | 23 | 40 | 28 | 30 | 2 | 11/8F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Antigua Burnb 3yN/R 15 | D D Porter — 16% R472 W77 P252 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | - | 15 (6) | 33 (2) | 25 (4) | 26 (5) | 36 (1) | 27 (3) | 16 (6) | 28 (2) | 20 (6) | 23 (5) | 37 | 27 | 24 | 26 | 25 | 25 | - | - | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ballygogue Jet | 16.13 | 16.36 | 16.86 | 55 | +0.73 | 0 career wins | |
| 1 | Choices Jess | 16.14 | 16.57 | 16.14 | 60 | 0.00 | Won last time | |
| 2 | Melbury Meteor | 16.25 | 16.50 | 16.71 | 51 | +0.46 | 6 places from 10 | |
| 4 | Brinkleys Lila | 16.28 | 16.62 | 16.61 | 49 | +0.33 | 1 win from 10 | |
| 5 | St Edmunds Joe | 16.28 | 16.55 | 16.28 | 56 | 0.00 | In form, bad trap | |
| 6 | Antigua Burn | 16.31 | 16.67 | 17.13 | 40 | +0.82 | Slow last time |
The break decides these 270-metre dashes at Towcester, and at D3 grade the rail is the place to be — trap 1 wins 23% of them while trap 5 limps along at 13%. Choices Jess gets the golden combination: the fastest dog in the field on the clock, drawn in the best box for the grade, and arriving off a win in which she equalled her personal best. Ballygogue Jet actually owns the quickest single time in the race and blistering first-bend figures, but he's never won a race in his life and was well beaten on his sprint return a fortnight ago. St Edmunds Joe is the form dog — two wins and two seconds in his last five — but he's saddled with the worst box in the race, and Melbury Meteor, placed in six of ten course and distance starts, is the ever-reliable chaser. Expect Jess to fire out and the in-form pair to be picking up the pieces.
The fastest dog in the race on speed figures and drawn in the box that wins more D3 sprints here than any other. She won at D4 grade last time out, clocking 16.14 — equalling her personal best and the quickest recent time in this field — and she owns two wins and three places from ten course and distance starts. The step back up to D3 is a small one, and her earlier runs at this grade came when she was running much slower than she is now. With the rail draw and the sharpest current pace, she can make every yard.
The form dog of the race — back-to-back wins at D4 in June followed by two seconds, including one at this grade a fortnight ago when he matched his best time of 16.28. Two wins and four places from nine course and distance starts, the second-best speed figures in the field, and his trainer Philpott operates at 22%, the strongest strike rate on show here. The one big black mark is the draw: trap 5 wins barely one in eight of these. If he can get across cleanly from the wrong box, he's the biggest threat to the selection.
The most reliable framer in the race — three wins and six placed efforts from ten course and distance starts, and she's hit the first two in half her career runs. She won at this grade in mid-June and was second twice in May, though her last run was a quiet fifth and her recent times have drifted to 16.71. The best track and distance suitability numbers in the field say this is her patch; she just needs the sharpness back.
The paper speedster — his best of 16.13 is the quickest single time in the race and his first-bend figures are outstanding — but the record tells a harder story: he has never won a graded race, and his return to sprinting a fortnight ago produced a well-beaten fifth in 16.76. The spring form over 500 metres at A3 and A4 level shows real ability, and a sharp practice spin here in June leading throughout hints the fire still burns. He's the classic talented maiden: capable of winning this, equally capable of finding trouble again.
Won at D4 grade at the start of the month and backed it up with a fair third on her return to this level last Saturday, but the wider record is modest — one win and two places from ten course and distance starts, and her best time of 16.28 leaves her a length or so shy of the quickest here. Honest and improving slightly, but she needs a few of the principals to fluff the break.
Hard to fancy on what he's shown lately. Last Saturday's sixth was his worst run of the summer — a 17.18 clock that's nearly a second off his best — and while he did win at this grade in early June, he's managed just one win and three places from ten course and distance starts. The slowest speed figures in the field and a wide draw complete a tough hand. He has been second at this level this month, so a bold show isn't impossible, but others make far more appeal.
Key insight: Trap 1 leads the way at D3 over 270m at 23.3% from 344 runs, with trap 5 the graveyard at 13.3%. The fastest dog in the field wins 22.6% from 747 runs — the strongest single signal at a grade where the ratings blur together.
T1:23.3% T2:21.1% T3:20.4% T4:18.3% T5:13.3% T6:14.1%
2,212 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 270m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (270m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 435m | 500m | 550m | 650m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Choices Jess | 0.614 | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | Melbury Meteor | 0.611 | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | Ballygogue Jet | 0.606 | — | 0.602 | 0.551 | 0.631 |
| 4 | Brinkleys Lila | 0.616 | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | St Edmunds Joe | 0.613 | 0.632 | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.