Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Swift Aimb 4y 15 | J M Liles — 17% R388 W65 P187 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 63 (5) | 22 (6) | 41 (1) | 33 (3) | 33 (3) | 37 (2) | 22 (5) | 32 (3) | 31 (4) | 45 (1) | 54 | 37 | 33 | 29 | 32 | 35 | 2 | 7/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Stratton Girlb 3y 16 | N J Deas — 16% R387 W62 P198 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 27 (6) | 34 (2) | 25 (6) | 34 (2) | 32 (3) | 41 (1) | 33 (2) | 26 (4) | 37 (1) | 26 (4) | 46 | 46 | 30 | 39 | 31 | 32 | 3 | 10/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Salacres Nandob 2y 35 | P H Harnden — 15% R354 W54 P201 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 45 (5) | 54 (4) | 48 (6) | 51 (5) | 82 (1) | 62 (3) | 77 (1) | 61 (3) | 61 (4) | 66 (3) | 36 | 26 | - | - | 57 | 32 | 4 | 11/10F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Salacres Slickd 4y 35 | P H Harnden — 15% R354 W54 P201 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 32 (2) | 53 (5) | 60 (5) | 41 (6) | 87 (6) | 84 (1) | 63 (1) | 86 (3) | 60 (1) | - | 38 | 33 | 18 | 18 | 32 | 19 | 1 | 13/8 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Swift Pavlod 3y 15 | N J Deas — 16% R387 W62 P198 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 27 (5) | 28 (4) | 25 (5) | 34 (3) | 25 (4) | 42 (6) | 29 (1) | 36 (3) | 29 (3) | - | 22 | 16 | 21 | 12 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Salacres Nando | No 270m form in recent races. Times not comparable. | — | Fastest + best trap | ||||
| 6 | Swift Pavlo | 15.99 | 16.38 | 16.43 | 51 | +0.44 | Out of form | |
| 1 | Swift Aim | 16.09 | 16.34 | 16.55 | 48 | +0.46 | 2 C&D wins | |
| 2 | Stratton Girl | 16.11 | 16.34 | 16.48 | 49 | +0.37 | 65% place rate | |
| 4 | Salacres Slick | 16.23 | 16.23 | 16.23 | 54 | 0.00 | 15.95 trial | |
Raw pace rules Towcester's 270-metre dash — the race is usually decided in the first three seconds — and at D2 grade trap 3 has been the box to be in, winning 24% while traps 5 and 6 languish at 13%. That's a gift for Salacres Nando, who lands the plum draw with comfortably the fastest time and the sharpest break in this five-dog field as he drops back from longer-trip company. The Harnden kennel also fields Salacres Slick, a former A1-class performer whose practice spin here in June was the quickest anyone in this race has covered the trip all summer — but he's slow into stride, and over 270 metres that's the one flaw you can't hide. Stratton Girl and Swift Aim are the proven sprint-grade yardsticks who'll be closest if the class droppers misfire, while Swift Pavlo needs to recapture spring form.
Everything lines up. He's the fastest dog in the race by a wide margin — a best of 15.90 for the trip against nothing quicker than 15.99 elsewhere — with the sharpest early dash in the field, and he lands in trap 3, the box that wins a quarter of these D2 sprints. He drops back to the minimum trip from A3 and A4 company over 500 metres, where he won with a huge 82-rated performance in May, so the class edge is real too. The one question is match practice at the trip — his recent racing has all been over the longer distance — but with his gate speed from the right box, the others may simply never see him.
The class horse of the race on old form — he was running in A1 and A2 company over 500 metres in the spring, rating as high as 87, and his June practice spin here clocked 15.95, the fastest trip time by anyone in this field all summer. Second at this grade on his sprint debut a fortnight ago confirmed the switch has promise. The flaw is the break: he's slow into stride and does his best work late, and over 270 metres that means giving a head start to the fastest breaker in the race. If he traps level for once, he wins.
Took his chance in open company over 245 metres at the weekend and ran a career-best 63-rated race in fifth — form that would win this if repeated. Before that he'd been a solid citizen at this grade, winning here in late May, and he owns two wins and three places from nine course and distance starts. Breaks well from the rail and won a quiet solo spin here a fortnight ago. The head-scratcher is consistency: the run before the open was a well-beaten sixth at this level.
The reliability option — she's hit the frame in 65% of her starts, with two wins and five places from ten course and distance runs, and she was second at this grade twice in the past six weeks. Her best of 16.11 stands up well against the sprint regulars, though last Saturday's sixth was a rare blank. She breaks honestly rather than brilliantly, which usually leaves her chasing the fastest starters home.
Once clocked 15.99 for the trip — second-fastest in this field — but that dog hasn't shown up lately: fifth, fourth and fifth in his last three at this grade with ratings stuck in the 20s, and just one win and one place from ten course and distance starts. He's also drawn in one of the two boxes that win barely one race in eight at this grade. The old speed would make him dangerous; there's little recent evidence it's still there.
Key insight: Trap 3 is the strongest box at D2 over 270m at 24.2% from 454 runs, with the outside pair well adrift at 13%. The fastest dog in the field wins 24.8% from 868 runs — speed and the break decide these.
T1:21.4% T2:19.6% T3:24.2% T4:21.0% T5:13.2% T6:13.3%
2,410 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 270m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (270m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 245m | 270m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swift Aim | 0.621 | 0.605 | — |
| 2 | Stratton Girl | — | 0.605 | — |
| 3 | Salacres Nando | — | — | 0.598 |
| 4 | Salacres Slick | — | 0.601 | 0.592 |
| 6 | Swift Pavlo | — | 0.607 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.