Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Melbury Rocketd 2y 27 | A Welch — 13% R303 W40 P141 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | 52 | 35 (2) | 37 (4) | 26 (6) | 21 (6) | 28 (5) | 33 (3) | 30 (3) | 35 (2) | 33 (3) | 41 (1) | 38 | 27 | - | - | 31 | 34 | 6 | 10/3 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Vinies Petb 2y 26 | D D Porter — 16% R472 W77 P252 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 52 | 52 (2) | 31 (1) | 25 (4) | 25 (3) | 17 (6) | 17 (6) | 30 (2) | 31 (1) | 27 (3) | 27 (2) | 43 | 34 | - | 18 | 30 | 40 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ High Chanced 2y 18 | K J Crocker — 18% R121 W22 P67 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 52 | 30 (6) | 30 (5) | 37 (4) | 43 (2) | 41 (3) | 36 (6) | 50 (2) | 49 (3) | 60 (1) | 44 (5) | 38 | 16 | - | 15 | 39 | 41 | 3 | 3/1F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Cushie Seamied 2y 15 | A Welch — 13% R303 W40 P141 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 39 | 56 (1) | 43 (4) | 37 (4) | 33 (3) | 24 (6) | 37 (1) | 57 (3) | 45 (4) | 40 (3) | - | - | 28 | - | 27 | 42 | 35 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Deerland Flyerd 2y 17 | D D Porter — 16% R472 W77 P252 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 51 | 53 (2) | 37 (5) | 36 (4) | 43 (3) | 44 (3) | 45 (4) | 48 (4) | 48 (6) | 52 (6) | - | 27 | 10 | - | 13 | 44 | 38 | 1 | 10/3 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Cragbrien Herod 2y 17 | D D Porter — 16% R472 W77 P252 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 45 | 43 (3) | 46 (3) | 44 (3) | 30 (4) | 31 (4) | 24 (6) | 36 (1) | 27 (2) | 32 (1) | 24 (2) | 19 | 20 | - | - | 37 | 42 | 2 | 10/3 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | High Chance | 27.19 | 27.62 | 28.02 | 53 | +0.83 | Fastest best time | |
| 5 | Deerland Flyer | 27.40 | 27.74 | 27.71 | 53 | +0.31 | 0 career wins | |
| 6 | Cragbrien Hero | 27.40 | 27.55 | 27.81 | 55 | +0.41 | Class drop | |
| 2 | Vinies Pet | 27.67 | 27.67 | 27.67 | 51 | 0.00 | Improving | |
| 4 | Cushie Seamie | 27.79 | 27.90 | 27.79 | 42 | 0.00 | Won last time | |
| 1 | Melbury Rocket | 27.86 | 27.86 | 27.86 | 41 | 0.00 | 1 run at trip |
The 460-metre trip at Towcester is the middle distance on this card and the form book treads carefully here — only a couple of hundred runners have contested B3 at this trip, so the trap pattern is a lean rather than gospel: traps 1 and 3 have done best at just under 23% apiece, with trap 4 the graveyard at 12%. It's also a grade where the top-rated dog wins far less often than usual, so this is a race to solve with the watch and the running styles. Melbury Rocket and Vinies Pet share the sharpest early dash and should dispute the lead into the first turn, with Cragbrien Hero — the quickest in the field on average times — stalking them out wide. High Chance and Deerland Flyer are both slow starters who need the leaders to come back to them, while last week's winner Cushie Seamie builds into his races from the worst box in the race.
The quickest dog in the race on the clock — top speed figure in the field and the best average time at 27.55 — and he drops back to B3 after two solid thirds in stronger B2 company. His last three runs have all been thirds at this level or above, so he's knocking on the door, and when he spun round this course and distance solo in June he clocked the fastest practice time of anyone here, leading from the fourth bend out wide. He races in the open spaces of trap 6, breaks decently, and can lie handy rather than needing everything to go wrong in front. The class edge from B2 should tell.
Arrives in the best form of anyone — a 56-rated win at B4 grade last week was the strongest single performance in this field this month, and he's won three of his last nine starts overall. He steps up a grade off the back of it and has a win from three course and distance starts. The problems are the draw and the style: trap 4 wins barely one race in eight at this grade and trip, and he's slow into stride, doing his best work in the second half of the race. He'll need a clear passage mid-track.
A sprinter trying the longer trip again — five of his last six races were over 270 metres and his only graded run at this distance produced a modest fourth. He does own genuine early speed and won a solo spin over this course and distance in June in a fast time, leading throughout from an inside draw, so the switch isn't without logic. But one graded run at the trip is thin evidence he sees out the extra 190 metres under pressure, and he's been beaten in this company before.
The improver in the race. Second at this grade and trip eleven days ago with a career-best 52-rated run, having won at D4 sprint grade the time before, and she ran on strongly in a fast practice spin over this course and distance in June. Shares the best early dash in the field and breaks well. The concern is depth of form — before this recent purple patch she was finishing down the field in sprint company, so she needs to confirm the step forward rather than bounce back to her old level.
The most experienced dog in the race at this course and distance — nine starts, a win and three places — and his best of 27.19 is the fastest anyone here has ever run the trip in a race. The recent runs have been quieter, sixth and fifth in this grade, but he was second and third at this level in late spring, so the ability hasn't gone anywhere. He gives them all a start and comes late, which needs a strong pace up front — and this race should provide one. Trainer Crocker operates at a healthy 22%.
The highest performance average in the race and second at this grade last Sunday with a career-best run, but there's a catch you can't ignore: he has never won a graded race — twenty-plus career starts, not one victory. He's slow away, stays on late, and keeps finding one too good. Dropping from B2 company helps his cause on paper, and his closing burst is the sharpest in the field, but until he actually gets his head in front he's one to keep on the right side of each-way only.
Key insight: Only 200 runs at B3 over 460m and the ratings barely predict anything at this grade — the top-rated dog wins just 12%. Traps 1 and 3 lead at 22.9% each, trap 4 is the worst at 12.1%. A race for judgement rather than numbers.
T1:22.9% T2:14.3% T3:22.9% T4:12.1% T5:16.1% T6:16.1%
200 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Melbury Rocket | 63 | 0 | Fader |
2Vinies Pet | 63 | 0 | Fader |
3High Chance | 21 | 100 | Closer |
4Cushie Seamie | 46 | 100 | Closer |
5Deerland Flyer | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Cragbrien Hero | 54 | 0 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 460m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (460m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 450m | 460m | 476m | 500m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbury Rocket | 0.606 | — | 0.606 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Vinies Pet | 0.618 | — | 0.602 | — | — | — |
| 3 | High Chance | — | — | 0.601 | — | 0.615 | — |
| 4 | Cushie Seamie | 0.601 | — | 0.607 | — | — | 0.576 |
| 5 | Deerland Flyer | — | 0.619 | 0.603 | 0.614 | — | — |
| 6 | Cragbrien Hero | 0.608 | — | 0.599 | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.