Shares the field's best speed figure and was second twice at this grade and trip in April, but two things stand squarely in the way: he's spent the summer sprinting with modest results, and he's drawn trap 1 — the worst box at this grade, winning barely one race in nine. Placed in three of five course and distance starts without winning, and just one victory in his last twenty-odd races. The engine is decent; the launch pad isn't.

The form is drifting the wrong way — fifth at this grade a fortnight ago in 30.86, his slowest clock of the year, continuing a gentle slide from the 46-rated second he ran in mid-May. He's honest, with one win and four places from ten course and distance starts, and he shows early dash before weakening. Trainer Crocker's 22% strike rate earns respect, but this dog needs to find his spring form again, and quickly.

Owns the fastest personal best in the race at 30.25, but the record since is a puzzle — no win or place in five course and distance starts, and his best recent efforts have come in 712-metre stayers races where his strong finish gets time to work. At this trip he keeps arriving too late, and his last clock of 30.77 was well below par. A career place rate of 15% tells the story: he's a marathon dog moonlighting at the wrong distance.

As reliable as they come at this level — two wins and five places from eight course and distance starts, second at this grade ten days ago, and a winner here in early June. He's another who does his best work late, and the draw is the problem: trap 5 wins barely one in nine at this grade. He'll be running on when it matters, and if the leaders tie up he's the one most likely to profit alongside Pulleen Blackie. A win bet needs a lot of traffic luck from that box.