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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tunnelroadrunnerb 4y 16 | A Ioannou — 13% R93 W12 P45 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 16 (6) | 24 (3) | 22 (4) | 16 (6) | 18 (5) | 26 (2) | 21 (2) | 23 (3) | 24 (2) | - | 22 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 20 | 20 | 6 | 14/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Purmac Timmyd 4y 16 | N J Deas — 16% R387 W62 P198 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 19 | - | 14 (5) | 15 (5) | 14 (5) | 14 (6) | 13 (6) | 28 (6) | 25 (6) | 30 (6) | 31 (5) | 21 (6) | 8 | - | - | - | 14 | 12 | 1 | 50/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Sharp N Smartb 4y 56 | N J Deas — 16% R387 W62 P198 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 38 (4) | 29 (4) | 36 (4) | 47 (2) | 44 (3) | 27 (2) | 17 (5) | 22 (3) | 25 (2) | 21 (3) | 31 | 21 | 34 | 27 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Choices Peridotd 3y 44 | J M Liles — 17% R388 W65 P187 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 20 (6) | 33 (6) | 60 (1) | 41 (4) | 43 (4) | 73 (3) | 44 (4) | 57 (1) | 65 (4) | 36 (4) | 34 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 43 | 10 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Drumcrow Maverikd 5y 27 | P B Philpott — 18% R129 W23 P72 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 24 (2) | 17 (5) | 28 (1) | 24 (3) | 19 (5) | 22 (5) | 21 (4) | 29 (1) | 20 (4) | 24 (3) | 36 | 30 | 51 | 31 | 23 | 24 | 3 | 2/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Essex Abbieb 2y 7 | S J Roberts — 0% R6 W0 P4 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 24 (3) | 48 (4) | 41 (2) | 35 (3) | 32 (4) | 35 (5) | 43 (4) | 54 (4) | 23 (1) | - | 14 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4/5F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Choices Peridot | No 270m form in recent races. Times not comparable. | — | First 270m race | ||||
| 1 | Tunnelroadrunner | 16.48 | 16.90 | 17.09 | 44 | +0.61 | 0 wins from 10 | |
| 3 | Sharp N Smart | 16.49 | 16.87 | 16.49 | 54 | 0.00 | Class drop | |
| 5 | Drumcrow Maverik | 16.53 | 16.78 | 16.68 | 53 | +0.15 | 2 C&D wins | |
| 6 | Essex Abbie | 16.65 | 16.66 | 16.70 | 53 | +0.05 | Lightly raced C&D | |
| 2 | Purmac Timmy | 17.23 | 17.38 | 17.28 | 20 | +0.05 | Winless | |
Towcester's 270-metre dash is all about the break — raw speed settles these long before the line, and at this bottom grade the fastest dog in the field wins a healthy three in ten. The trap pattern at D5 is gentler than at the higher sprint grades: trap 3 has been the best box at around one in five, while trap 5 is the weakest. That plays straight into Sharp N Smart's paws — he has far and away the sharpest break in this field and is drawn in the right box to use it. Drumcrow Maverik, the only proven winner at this course and distance in the line-up, gives chase from the wrong side of the draw. The rest have plenty to find on the clock: Purmac Timmy and Tunnelroadrunner have been well held in this grade all summer, and Choices Peridot is slow away and completely unproven over a trip this short.
Far and away the quickest away in this field — his first-bend figures are in a different league to anything else here — and he's drawn in the box that wins most often at this grade and trip. He drops into the bottom sprint grade off a summer of racing in better company over 460 metres, where he was fourth three times without disgracing himself, and he sharpened up with a solo spin here a fortnight ago, leading all the way. Two placed efforts from five course and distance runs. Over a trip this short, his early dash should settle it before anything can land a blow.
The only dog in the race with a course and distance win to his name — two of them, in fact, from ten starts, including a victory at this grade in mid-June. He was second here a fortnight ago and his trainer operates at a solid 24% strike rate. The knock is the draw: trap 5 has been the weakest box at this grade and trip. He's quick enough to go with the selection early if he breaks level, and he's the obvious threat if the favourite's sprint form proves too light.
Winless in ten course and distance attempts with four placed efforts, and his latest run was a well-beaten sixth at this grade a fortnight ago. All recent form is at this level and the clock is drifting the wrong way — 17.09 last time against a best of 16.48. A quiet solo spin here in June didn't suggest a revival is imminent. Needs several of these to misfire.
The one to cross off first. He's never won or placed in five course and distance starts, his last five runs at this grade have all been fifth or sixth, and his best time of 17.23 is the slowest in the race by three quarters of a second — an eternity over 270 metres. Consistent, but consistently beaten. Even at the bottom grade this looks beyond him.
Owns the fastest personal best in the race at 16.29, but everything else is against her. She has never raced this trip in a graded contest, all her recent form is over 500 metres where she was well beaten in her last two, and she's slow into stride — a fatal flaw over 270 metres, where the race is decided in the first three seconds. A sluggish practice spin here last week did nothing to change that impression. The speed is real, but she won't get time to use it.
Only three course and distance runs and no win or place to show for them, and she'd had just one race since April before finishing third here a fortnight ago. That comeback run was respectable and her times are steady rather than sharp — she's clocked 16.65 twice, which leaves her a couple of lengths shy of the principals on the watch. Tends to do her best work late, which is rarely enough over this trip.
Key insight: The fastest dog in the field wins 30.7% at D5 over 270m (127 runs) — comfortably the strongest signal at this grade, while the overall ratings barely separate the top two. Trap 3 is the best box at 20.6%, trap 5 the worst at 14.6%.
T1:18.2% T2:18.9% T3:20.6% T4:16.1% T5:14.6% T6:17.5%
640 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 270m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (270m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 460m | 500m | 712m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunnelroadrunner | 0.626 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Purmac Timmy | 0.644 | — | 0.626 | — |
| 3 | Sharp N Smart | 0.625 | 0.615 | — | — |
| 4 | Choices Peridot | — | — | 0.613 | 0.632 |
| 5 | Drumcrow Maverik | 0.621 | — | — | — |
| 6 | Essex Abbie | 0.617 | — | 0.615 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.