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Congratulations to Swift Delicious - 3 wins in a row at Towcester
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Salacres Elmejord 4y 14 | P H Harnden — 15% R354 W54 P201 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 50 | 46 (3) | 43 (5) | 52 (2) | 46 (5) | 51 (4) | 60 (2) | 64 (2) | 49 (3) | 44 (3) | 54 (3) | 31 | 38 | 15 | 16 | 50 | 49 | 2 | 13/8F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Swift Deliciousb 4y 211 | N J Deas — 16% R387 W62 P198 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 38 | 62 (1) | 55 (1) | 90 (1) | 47 (2) | 42 (3) | 45 (2) | 48 (2) | 71 (2) | 69 (2) | 58 (5) | 34 | 21 | 10 | 48 | 59 | 45 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ivy Hill Maisyb 2y 17 | J M Liles — 17% R388 W65 P187 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 41 | 78 (2) | 56 (3) | 60 (2) | 62 (1) | 51 (2) | 78 (4) | 39 (4) | 64 (5) | 67 (5) | - | 33 | 28 | 16 | 34 | 63 | 49 | 3 | 11/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Dakota Goldb 2y 16 | A Ioannou — 13% R93 W12 P45 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 63 | 35 (6) | 38 (5) | 43 (5) | 47 (5) | 51 (4) | 43 (5) | 45 (4) | 68 (1) | 61 (1) | 42 (5) | 21 | 20 | 20 | 13 | 44 | 37 | 4 | 7/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ El Prez Banditd 3y 18 | V A Lea — 14% R148 W21 P58 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 52 | 38 (5) | 43 (5) | 37 (6) | 54 (3) | 68 (1) | 62 (1) | 51 (3) | 42 (4) | 38 (6) | - | 26 | 27 | 31 | 19 | 47 | 36 | 6 | 14/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Toems Modelb 2y 15 | A Welch — 13% R303 W40 P141 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 52 | 44 (5) | 39 (4) | 53 (2) | 27 (3) | 9 (6) | 46 (4) | 36 (6) | 28 (6) | - | - | 11 | 15 | 7 | 13 | 42 | 34 | 1 | 7/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salacres Elmejor | 29.93 | 30.27 | 30.26 | 54 | +0.33 | 0 C&D wins | |
| 4 | Dakota Gold | 29.94 | 30.34 | 30.46 | 49 | +0.52 | Fades late | |
| 5 | El Prez Bandit | 29.96 | 30.33 | 30.96 | 44 | +1.00 | Slow last time | |
| 3 | Ivy Hill Maisy | 30.01 | 30.28 | 30.01 | 56 | 0.00 | Class drop | |
| 6 | Toems Model | 30.04 | 30.37 | 30.49 | 47 | +0.45 | 0 career wins | |
| 2 | Swift Delicious | 30.09 | 30.41 | 29.99 | 51 | -0.10 | 3 wins in a row |
Towcester's 500 metres rides like a galloping trip but the first bend still punishes the wrong boxes, and at A6 the pattern flattens right out — traps 1 and 4 lead at around 21% apiece with trap 3 the quietest at 16%. The sharpest single pointer at this grade is raw speed: the fastest dog in the field wins better than one in four. Dakota Gold is the one with the early gears — expect him to bowl along in front from trap 4 — but he has a habit of emptying late, and stalking him are two genuinely classy sorts who both finish their races off strongly. Ivy Hill Maisy was second in open company over 590 metres on Saturday and Swift Delicious arrives chasing a four-timer. The front-runner setting it up for two proper closers is the likeliest script, and the question is simply which of the pair gets there first.
Drops into A6 off the back of a second in open company over 590 metres on Saturday — a 78-rated run that's simply a different level to this field. She's the fastest dog in the race on speed figures, won at A7 grade here in June, and has placed in four of five course and distance starts including that win. Her recent form line — never below 51, twice touching 78 — towers over this grade. She's slow away and does her damage late, which at this trip is workable, especially with a pace-setter like Dakota Gold guaranteed to give her something to run at. The draw in trap 3 is the quietest box at this grade, the only real nit to pick.
The card even carries his congratulations banner — three wins on the bounce, taking in a 712-metre stayers event rated a monster 90, then victories at A8 and A7 grade in the last fortnight. He's placed in five of six course and distance starts with two wins, so the track clearly suits. The rise to A6 is the next step, and the knocks are real: he gives away lengths at the boxes — his early pace figures are the weakest in the race — and his best clock of 30.09 leaves him slower than the principals on raw time. But winners find a way, and he's finishing his races off better than anything here bar one.
Honest and consistent — placed in almost half his starts, third at this grade last Sunday — but he's yet to win in ten course and distance attempts and that record is starting to look like a character reference rather than a coincidence. All recent form is at this level or A5, with a best of 60 back in May. Breaks fairly and races handy from the rail draw, so he'll be in the fight for the places again.
The speed merchant of the race early — sharpest first-bend figures in the field and guaranteed to have them all chasing him into the back straight. The problem is what happens after: he's finished fifth or sixth in each of his last five races, weakening late every time, and his last two runs at this grade produced ratings in the 30s. Two wins from ten course and distance starts show he can pinch one when he steals an easy lead, and trap 4 is statistically the best box at this grade. If he's left alone in front he's dangerous; if pressed, he'll come back to them.
Won back-to-back races at A7 and A6 grade in late May with ratings of 62 and 68, so the ability is in there, but the four runs since have all been beaten efforts at A5 and the clock backs up the eye — 30.76 last time against a best of 29.96. Dropping back to A6 helps, and he's versatile enough to sit handy, but he needs to rediscover the spring form quickly. Two wins from ten course and distance starts.
Still a maiden after a career of trying, and while the second at A5 grade in mid-June rated a respectable 53, the two runs since have been well-beaten efforts. Only three course and distance starts — one place — and his times leave him needing the race to fall apart in front of him. Confirmed wide runner who at least gets the draw he wants in trap 6. Hard to see him breaking his duck in this company.
Key insight: A6 is the grade where the overall ratings weaken at Towcester — the top-rated dog wins just 21.9% — but the fastest dog in the field wins 27.3% from 433 runs. Speed is the lens here. Trap bias is flat, with trap 4 best at 21.5% and trap 3 quietest at 16.3%.
T1:21.1% T2:19.8% T3:16.3% T4:21.5% T5:17.6% T6:18.4%
1,486 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Salacres Elmejor | 50 | 52 | All-Rounder |
2Swift Delicious | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Ivy Hill Maisy | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Dakota Gold | 60 | 11 | Fader |
5El Prez Bandit | 51 | 34 | All-Rounder |
6Toems Model | 50 | 48 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 500m | 525m | 590m | 712m | 942m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salacres Elmejor | — | 0.605 | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | Swift Delicious | — | 0.608 | — | — | 0.631 | — |
| 3 | Ivy Hill Maisy | — | 0.606 | — | 0.631 | 0.626 | 0.639 |
| 4 | Dakota Gold | — | 0.607 | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | El Prez Bandit | — | 0.607 | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | Toems Model | 0.637 | 0.607 | 0.579 | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.