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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hexel Masonb 3y 26 | R Mccarthy — 20% R179 W35 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 47 | 81 (1) | 61 (4) | 66 (2) | 60 (2) | 61 (4) | 67 (3) | 68 (3) | 81 (1) | 60 (4) | 57 (3) | 31 | 20 | - | 38 | 67 | 39 | 3 | 7/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Caseys Jaked 4y 29 | S Atkinson — 19% R238 W45 P147 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 57 | 86 (1) | 82 (1) | 65 (4) | 47 (5) | 52 (5) | 62 (3) | 73 (2) | 69 (2) | 65 (3) | 87 (1) | 42 | 39 | 57 | 42 | 70 | 51 | 1 | 2/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Glengiblin Frankd 3y 34 | R Mccarthy — 20% R179 W35 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 54 | 48 (5) | 70 (2) | 65 (3) | 85 (1) | 75 (2) | 84 (1) | 75 (2) | 65 (3) | 83 (1) | 72 (2) | 30 | 36 | 47 | 47 | 69 | 34 | 4 | 15/8F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Plagiarismb 3y 23 | M R Sillars — 14% R21 W3 P9 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 43 | 32 (4) | 26 (4) | 36 (1) | 31 (2) | 72 (3) | 74 (2) | 63 (5) | 64 (4) | 83 (4) | 27 (5) | 20 | 23 | - | 11 | 71 | 37 | 5 | 5/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Blackstone Danid 3y 24 | C M Dibb — 13% R323 W41 P151 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 55 | 77 (1) | 53 (5) | 62 (3) | 64 (2) | 32 (2) | 34 (3) | 73 (2) | 70 (4) | 83 (1) | 80 (1) | 41 | 32 | 43 | 42 | 69 | 38 | 2 | 7/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Caseys Jake | 26.03 | 26.38 | 26.06 | 59 | +0.03 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Glengiblin Frank | 26.20 | 26.43 | 26.93 | 43 | +0.73 | Off his best | |
| 1 | Hexel Mason | 26.22 | 26.52 | 26.24 | 51 | +0.02 | Won last week | |
| 5 | Plagiarism | 26.23 | 26.32 | 26.41 | 52 | +0.18 | 8 months off trip | |
| 6 | Blackstone Dani | 26.23 | 26.50 | 26.67 | 44 | +0.44 | Won last week |
The best race on the card and, on the numbers, one of the most clear-cut. Star Pelaw's 435 metres is the country's premier front-runner's trip — nearly half of all winners lead throughout — and at A3 grade trap 2 is the strongest box at 23.1% with trap 5 the weakest at 14.6%. Caseys Jake arrives with the two best recent performances in the field, the fastest times, the top speed rating and the best box, and when the top-rated dog is this far clear of the field here it historically wins around one in three. He prefers to strike late rather than lead, so expect Hexel Mason and Blackstone Dani — both last-time-out winners with early dash — to cut out the running before Jake's class tells in the closing stages.
Won his last two by producing the two biggest performances this field has managed in months — an 86-rated victory at this grade on Saturday and an 82 the week before — and the clock backs it up: his 26.03 best and his 26.06 winning run last week are both the quickest in the race. Add the top speed rating, three wins and five places from ten course-and-distance starts, and the best box at this grade, and this is as strong a hand as the card offers. He does his best work late rather than from the front, the one risk at a leader's track, but on current form he is simply better than these.
Won at A4 last week with a career-best 81-rated performance and gets the rail draw at the track where leaders are so hard to peg back. Consistent to a fault — top-two in three of his last six — and the step up to A3 looks within reach on that latest run, which came within a whisker of his best time. If he pings the lids and controls it from the front, the selection may simply run out of track.
The early-June version of this dog — 85 and 84-rated wins at this grade — would win this race. But he was well beaten at this level last week, nearly three-quarters of a second off his best, he does his best work early and tends to weaken late, and trap 3 is a below-par box at this grade. The talent is real and he holds three wins and seven places from ten runs here; the timing just looks wrong.
The highest career average in the field, but it is built on open-class form from last November — since then it has been three modest sprints and an eight-month absence from this trip. He is slowly away by nature, drawn in the worst box at this grade at 14.6%, and needs to prove the stamina is still there after so long sprinting. A fast solo trial in June offers a flicker of hope, and the each-way price may tempt, but the evidence doesn't.
Won at A4 last week with a 77-rated run and owns three wins from eight course-and-distance starts, so she is no forlorn hope stepping up. She breaks fast but tends to empty late, and the wide box wins below its share at this grade at 17.5%. She could well take them along for three bends; holding off the selection's finish from out there is the harder part.
Key insight: Trap 2 is the best box at A3 (23.1% from 91 runs). When the top-rated dog is clear by double figures at this track and trip it wins 34.4% — and Caseys Jake's rating gap is 12 points.
T1:20.8% T2:23.1% T3:16.7% T4:19.4% T5:14.6% T6:17.5%
604 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 435m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Hexel Mason | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Caseys Jake | 50 | 57 | Closer |
3Glengiblin Frank | 58 | 39 | Fader |
5Plagiarism | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Blackstone Dani | 60 | 35 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 435m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (435m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 245m | 435m | 590m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hexel Mason | — | 0.610 | — |
| 2 | Caseys Jake | — | 0.606 | — |
| 3 | Glengiblin Frank | — | 0.608 | — |
| 5 | Plagiarism | 0.617 | 0.605 | 0.623 |
| 6 | Blackstone Dani | 0.612 | 0.609 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.