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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Violets Girlb 2y 25 | M R Sillars — 14% R21 W3 P9 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 58 | 41 (5) | 29 (3) | 26 (3) | 60 (2) | 31 (3) | 20 (4) | 24 (5) | 43 (5) | 33 (5) | - | 24 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 48 | 29 | 3 | 2/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Daring Poppyb 2y 35 | R Mccarthy — 20% R179 W35 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 42 | 47 (5) | 38 (6) | 41 (5) | 53 (4) | 47 (5) | 41 (6) | 56 (4) | 64 (3) | 54 (3) | 52 (5) | 21 | 19 | 26 | 8 | 47 | 31 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Kilbarry Limitb 4y 31 | C M Dibb — 13% R321 W41 P151 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 48 | 56 (3) | 41 (5) | 53 (5) | 51 (4) | 73 (1) | 48 (4) | 67 (1) | 28 (3) | 32 (2) | 45 (2) | 20 | 22 | 17 | 24 | 54 | 38 | 2 | 3/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Bogger Dewieb 3y 16 | S Atkinson — 19% R238 W45 P147 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 44 | 50 (3) | 57 (4) | 58 (4) | 56 (3) | 71 (1) | 64 (2) | 57 (3) | 72 (1) | 59 (4) | 57 (4) | 23 | 27 | 26 | 27 | 61 | 43 | 1 | 13/8F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Crafty San Sirod 3y 7 | C M Dibb — 13% R321 W41 P151 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 72 | 55 (4) | 70 (1) | 44 (5) | 65 (1) | 46 (3) | 51 (3) | 42 (2) | 28 (5) | 40 (5) | 58 (3) | 33 | 21 | 12 | 32 | 52 | 41 | 5 | 4/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kilbarry Limit | 26.36 | 26.84 | 26.63 | 52 | +0.27 | Best trap | |
| 4 | Bogger Dewie | 26.38 | 26.70 | 26.67 | 54 | +0.29 | Model pick | |
| 2 | Daring Poppy | 26.45 | 26.85 | 26.76 | 49 | +0.31 | 0 wins from 9 | |
| 6 | Crafty San Siro | 26.54 | 27.12 | 26.58 | 45 | +0.04 | Won last week | |
| 1 | Violets Girl | 26.55 | 26.94 | 27.25 | 38 | +0.70 | Off her best |
A wide-open A5 where the conditions data tells you to stay humble: the top-rated dog wins just 17.5% at this grade and trip — the second-rated actually converts more often at 23.9% — and the middle boxes rule, trap 3 at 24.2% and trap 4 at 23.9%, with both flanks below 16%. Star Pelaw remains the country's premier leader's track, with nearly half of all winners going all the way. Crafty San Siro is the one with the early fireworks — comfortably the sharpest to the first bend — and he'll take beating if he gets a clean break, though the wide box works against him. Bogger Dewie is the opposite type: top-rated, fastest on speed figures and relentlessly consistent, but reliant on running them down late. Kilbarry Limit gets the best box of all and stays on well.
The most solid dog in an unreliable race — top-rated, the best speed figure in the field, and a metronome: he hasn't dipped below a 56-rated run in six starts, winning at A6 in late June and placing twice at this grade since. Trap 4 is one of the two strongest boxes at this grade at 23.9%. The knock is his style — he does his best work late at a track where leaders usually hold on — and top-rated dogs convert poorly at this grade here, so confidence stays measured. But on class, consistency and draw he holds the strongest overall claim.
The early pace of the race by a street — the sharpest first-bend figure in the field — and bang in form, winning two of his last three including a 70-rated A6 victory on Saturday. At a track where nearly half the winners make every yard, that early dash is gold dust. Two problems: trap 6 wins just 15.5% at this grade, and he empties late when anything presses him. If he crosses cleanly to the front at the first bend, he probably stays there.
The rail draw is no help at this grade — trap 1 wins just 15.5% at A5 — and her form is honest but limited: one 60-rated second in mid-June stands out from a string of much quieter efforts, and she was five lengths off her best last time. Quick enough early to be prominent for a bend or two, but she weakens and the stronger stayers should stream past late.
Nine course-and-distance runs without a single win or place is a damning record, and her ratings sit below what this race should require. She was also off the track for three months before her recent return run, where she finished fifth again. The draw is middling at this grade and there are simply faster, more reliable dogs on either side of her. Opposable.
Drawn in the best box in the race — trap 3 wins 24.2% at this grade — and capable on his day, winning at this level with a 73-rated run in June, backed by the fastest best time in the field and a third here last week. He does his finishing late rather than early. In a race where the two market leaders have opposite flaws, his combination of draw, clock and honesty makes him a live each-way alternative.
Key insight: The top-rated dog wins only 17.5% at A5 over 435m (183 runs) — the second-rated wins MORE at 23.9%. The middle boxes (traps 3 and 4) are the only ones above 19%.
T1:15.5% T2:17.0% T3:24.2% T4:23.9% T5:18.9% T6:15.5%
654 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 435m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Violets Girl | 62 | 36 | Fader |
2Daring Poppy | 47 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Kilbarry Limit | 50 | 58 | Closer |
4Bogger Dewie | 44 | 74 | Closer |
6Crafty San Siro | 72 | 6 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 435m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (435m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 245m | 435m | 590m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Violets Girl | 0.620 | 0.619 | — |
| 2 | Daring Poppy | — | 0.617 | 0.637 |
| 3 | Kilbarry Limit | 0.619 | 0.617 | — |
| 4 | Bogger Dewie | — | 0.613 | — |
| 6 | Crafty San Siro | — | 0.622 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.