Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Killieford Antond 1y 15 | M R Sillars — 14% R21 W3 P9 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 51 | 56 (3) | 49 (4) | 69 (1) | 64 (1) | 40 (5) | 57 (3) | - | - | - | - | 3 | 28 | 10 | 28 | 56 | 32 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Fionntra Ogied 3y 7 | R Mccarthy — 20% R179 W35 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 54 | 55 (5) | 75 (1) | 62 (6) | 75 (2) | 71 (1) | 64 (1) | 68 (2) | 54 (1) | 54 (2) | - | 47 | 43 | 44 | 56 | 65 | 51 | 2 | 10/3 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Bogger Cutieb 2y 26 | S Atkinson — 19% R238 W45 P147 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 27 | 74 (4) | 56 (4) | 56 (4) | 52 (5) | 47 (4) | 48 (4) | 34 (4) | 49 (5) | 68 (3) | 56 (4) | 36 | 21 | 21 | 11 | 56 | 36 | 5 | 11/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Glengiblin Bellab 3y 25 | R Mccarthy — 20% R179 W35 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 32 | 61 (3) | 60 (2) | 63 (3) | 50 (4) | 56 (3) | 75 (1) | 59 (4) | 44 (5) | 66 (1) | 46 (4) | 19 | 29 | 17 | 24 | 59 | 36 | 3 | 7/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Haywards Avab 4y 15 | R Mccarthy — 20% R179 W35 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 57 | 54 (4) | 71 (2) | 57 (4) | 58 (3) | 44 (5) | 41 (1) | 38 (5) | 59 (3) | 61 (5) | 26 (5) | 36 | 32 | 15 | 10 | 56 | 43 | 1 | 1/1F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bogger Cutie | 26.24 | 26.88 | 26.60 | 51 | +0.36 | 0 wins from 9 | |
| 3 | Fionntra Ogie | 26.42 | 26.66 | 26.66 | 51 | +0.24 | 4 course wins | |
| 5 | Glengiblin Bella | 26.43 | 26.77 | 26.59 | 50 | +0.16 | Consistent | |
| 6 | Haywards Ava | 26.47 | 26.72 | 26.54 | 52 | +0.07 | Model pick | |
| 1 | Killieford Anton | 26.70 | 26.97 | 26.85 | 39 | +0.15 | Below par |
Same conditions as the last — an A5 over 435 metres where the market leader's profile is a trap: the top-rated dog converts a lowly 17.5% at this grade while the second-rated wins 23.9%, and the middle boxes dominate with trap 3 at 24.2%. Nearly half of all winners at this track lead throughout. That framing flips this race on its head. Fionntra Ogie is the top-rated with a glittering course record — four wins from ten — and the best box, but he carries exactly the favourite profile that underperforms here. Haywards Ava is the second-rated with the best speed figure in the field and the sharpest early pace bar none — the winning style at a leader's track if she can cross from the wide box. Glengiblin Bella stays on late, Killieford Anton needs his June form back, and Bogger Cutie's fast clock hides a course record of nought from nine.
The profile that wins these: second-rated — and at this grade and trip the second-rated dog converts more often than the favourite, 23.9% against 17.5% — with the best speed figure in the field and the sharpest early pace bar none. She ran a 71-rated second on 30 June and was beaten barely two lengths in stronger A4 company last week. If she pings the lids she leads them to the first bend, and at a track where nearly half the winners make every yard of it, that is usually the race. The knocks are real — trap 6 wins just 15.5% at this grade and she is winless in eight course starts — which is why confidence stays modest rather than bold.
The top rating, the best box at this grade — trap 3 wins 24.2% — and a course record that reads four wins and seven top-two finishes from ten starts, the best strike rate in the field by a mile. He races up with the pace and won at this grade with a 75-rated run on 30 June. The catch is the profile: top-rated dogs convert just 17.5% at this grade and trip, the worst-performing favourite profile on the card. Every chance on his record — the conditions data just says he gets turned over more often than his followers expect.
Back-to-back wins in mid-June show what he can do, and the rail draw is a friend at a track that loves its leaders — but his speed figure is the lowest in the field and he has been third and fourth since that purple patch. Two wins from six course-and-distance runs is respectable. He needs to rediscover his June break-speed to trouble the big two here.
The fastest best time in the field at 26.24 — and nought wins, nought places from nine course-and-distance runs, which tells you how misleading a clock can be. Slowly away and staying on when it's all too late; she even ran a solid fourth over 590 metres in open company last week, which rather confirms her future lies over further. The trip and the track just don't suit the way she races.
The model of consistency — third, second and third in her last three, all at this grade, with a 75-rated win in early June on the record. She finishes her races off strongly, which at this track usually means minor money rather than the win unless the leaders overcook the early pace. Ten course-and-distance runs with two wins. Solid place claims; needs chaos up front for more.
Key insight: Top-rated dogs win only 17.5% at A5 here while second-rated win 23.9% (159 runs) — the second-rated profile with the top speed figure is the statistical sweet spot at these conditions.
T1:15.5% T2:17.0% T3:24.2% T4:23.9% T5:18.9% T6:15.5%
654 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 435m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Killieford Anton | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Fionntra Ogie | 59 | 39 | Fader |
4Bogger Cutie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Glengiblin Bella | 38 | 70 | Closer |
6Haywards Ava | 62 | 34 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 435m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (435m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 245m | 435m | 590m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Killieford Anton | — | 0.620 | — |
| 3 | Fionntra Ogie | — | 0.613 | — |
| 4 | Bogger Cutie | — | 0.618 | 0.632 |
| 5 | Glengiblin Bella | — | 0.615 | — |
| 6 | Haywards Ava | 0.610 | 0.614 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.