| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Caseys Kroyd 2y 9 | S Atkinson — 19% R238 W45 P147 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | - | 24 (2) | 24 (2) | 25 (2) | 19 (4) | 23 (2) | 28 (1) | 27 (1) | 19 (3) | 21 (3) | - | 41 | 42 | 46 | 44 | 24 | 30 | 1 | 1/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Westfield Crused 1y | J L Smith — 19% R90 W17 P50 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Philipstown Tomod 4y 14 | C M Dibb — 13% R323 W41 P151 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 15 (6) | 21 (4) | 14 (5) | 14 (4) | 15 (4) | 19 (3) | 9 (5) | 24 (2) | 17 (4) | 15 (5) | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 10/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Lincoln Sonnetb 3y 5 | J L Smith — 19% R90 W17 P50 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 20 (3) | 27 (1) | 16 (5) | 11 (6) | 58 (6) | 30 (4) | 21 (1) | 20 (5) | 51 (5) | - | 17 | 14 | 21 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 2 | 10/11F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Westfield Sorreld 1y | J L Smith — 19% R90 W17 P50 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | - | 4 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caseys Kroy | 15.33 | 15.51 | 15.41 | 60 | +0.08 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Philipstown Tomo | 15.41 | 15.97 | 15.61 | 47 | +0.20 | 0 wins from 10 | |
| 4 | Lincoln Sonnet | 15.52 | 15.84 | 15.59 | 49 | +0.07 | Best trap | |
| 2 | Westfield Cruse | Racing debut — trial times around 15.9, roughly five lengths off the selection's best. | — | Trials only | ||||
| 5 | Westfield Sorrel | Racing debut — trials all 16.0 seconds and slower with slow starts in the comments. | — | Trials only | ||||
Over 245 metres at Star Pelaw the race is decided in the first three seconds — there is no time to recover from a slow break on a circuit where leaders so rarely come back. The clock is king at this grade: the fastest dog on speed ratings wins a remarkable 42.9% of these D5 dashes, and the draw pattern favours the middle-to-wide boxes, with trap 4 winning 28.6% and trap 2 a dreadful 6.7%. Caseys Kroy towers over this field on the clock and should be straight to the front from the rail. The two newcomers, Westfield Cruse and Westfield Sorrel, have only slow trial times to their names, and the rest have been beaten regularly at this level. If Kroy breaks on terms, this is his to lose.
Comfortably the fastest dog in the race — his best of 15.33 is a couple of lengths quicker than anything his rivals have managed, and the top-rated speed dog wins over 40% at these conditions. His course record is a study in near-misses: top-two in eight of nine runs here but only two wins, including second in each of his last three. The rail box is a quiet one at this grade, but on the clock this is the weakest field he has faced in a while. Hard to see what beats him if he traps cleanly.
Drawn in the strongest occupied box at this grade — trap 4 wins 28.6% of these dashes — and won here just two starts back. He ran in open-class sprint company in the spring, so there is more ability in the locker than the grade suggests, even if the form since has been up and down. If the selection is slow away, this is the one most likely to profit from it.
Makes her racing debut, so all we have are schooling runs — she won a three-dog trial last week, but the times are the concern: around 15.9 seconds, roughly five lengths slower than the selection's best. She is also drawn in trap 2, which has won just 6.7% at this grade. Young dogs can improve sharply from trials to racing, so watch the market, but on the evidence she has plenty to find.
Ten runs at this course and distance without a win and just one place tells the story — she has been consistently a step behind this class of sprinter. Her ratings are the lowest of the experienced runners and her best time still leaves her a length or two shy of the selection at his best. The draw is fair, but others make far more appeal on everything that matters over this trip.
The second newcomer in the field and even harder to fancy than her kennelmate — her trials have all been slow, 16 seconds and upwards, with slow starts and crowding littering the comments. Debutants from this kennel deserve a second glance in the betting because the trainer does well here, but nothing in the schooling runs suggests she can trouble the principals first time out.
Key insight: The fastest-rated dog wins 42.9% of D5 sprints here (42 runs) — a huge signal. Trap 2 wins just 6.7% from 30 runs; trap 4 is the best occupied box today at 28.6%.
T1:13.3% T2:6.7% T3:18.8% T4:28.6% T5:18.2% T6:33.3%
184 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 245m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 245m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (245m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 220m | 245m | 275m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caseys Kroy | — | 0.633 | — |
| 2 | Westfield Cruse | — | — | — |
| 3 | Philipstown Tomo | — | 0.647 | — |
| 4 | Lincoln Sonnet | 0.659 | 0.646 | 0.651 |
| 5 | Westfield Sorrel | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.