Four consecutive top-two finishes including an A5 win last week rated 76 — matching the selection's figure — and his 26.35 clocking that day was the fastest recent time in this field. Trap 2 wins a fair 19.8% at this grade. He is improving fast and would be no surprise whatsoever; the case for the selection over him rests on her three course wins against his one from seven. A real chance.

The great unknown — a racing debutant whose entire record is trials, so his figures can't be trusted for pack racing where bumping and traffic change everything. That said, the schooling runs include a fast 26.67 solo win in June, and he lands in trap 3, the best box at this grade by a distance at 27.8%. Debutants often run green in traffic first time. One strictly for the market-watchers — impossible to assess with confidence from trial form alone.

The highest performance average in the field, with back-to-back wins rated 78 and 79 in late June before two solid thirds since. She does her best work late, which caps enthusiasm at a track where leaders so rarely come back, but her class is genuine and she almost never runs a bad race — six straight runs at this grade without dipping below 49. Strong place claims and a winning chance if the early pace collapses.

Nine course-and-distance runs without a win, form tailing away since May when he was at least running respectably at A3, and a modest effort in a 275-metre invitation event last time. Trap 5 wins just 14.8% at this grade. The 26.29 best time at the top of the speed table is ancient history on current evidence — he hasn't been within half a second of it in months. Others are preferred.