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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ballymac Addieb 3y 33 | B Heaton — 15% R223 W34 P105 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 19 (6) | 20 (6) | 23 (5) | 28 (3) | 27 (5) | 31 (3) | 20 (6) | 21 (6) | 36 (1) | 28 (4) | - | 26 | - | 11 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Gazes Bobyd 4y 15 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 29 (1) | 25 (2) | 24 (3) | 19 (5) | 21 (5) | 21 (4) | 24 (3) | 28 (1) | 26 (3) | 22 (3) | 1 | 24 | - | 30 | 24 | 23 | 6 | 10/3 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Airlie Isabellab 2y 7 | T D Coote — 19% R521 W97 P280 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 80 | 28 (2) | 22 (4) | 26 (3) | 34 (6) | 25 (3) | 25 (3) | 37 (4) | 41 (4) | 37 (5) | 52 (2) | 11 | 9 | - | 13 | 30 | 25 | 1 | 11/10F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Comer Muirb 4y 56 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 46 | 70 (1) | 43 (5) | 22 (6) | 34 (2) | 35 (6) | 44 (5) | 60 (2) | 70 (1) | 44 (4) | 68 (1) | 27 | 27 | - | 14 | 47 | 24 | 2 | 9/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Lantern Brightb 1y 16 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 51 | 33 (5) | 18 (6) | 24 (4) | 18 (6) | 19 (6) | 78 (1) | 40 (6) | 71 (1) | 35 (6) | 59 (2) | - | 29 | - | 15 | 34 | 25 | 3 | 8/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Drombeg Daisyb 3y 37 | I Zivkovic — 13% R588 W79 P277 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 17 (6) | 25 (5) | 49 (5) | 24 (6) | 37 (6) | 28 (1) | 21 (3) | 31 (6) | 37 (3) | - | 1 | 30 | - | 21 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 12/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Drombeg Daisy | 16.48 | 16.88 | 17.26 | 48 | +0.78 | Off since June | |
| 5 | Lantern Bright | 16.54 | 16.99 | 16.86 | 51 | +0.32 | Poor recent form | |
| 1 | Ballymac Addie | 16.63 | 16.96 | 16.98 | 49 | +0.35 | Off 4m, cold form | |
| 4 | Comer Muir | 16.72 | 16.85 | 16.82 | 52 | +0.10 | Model pick | |
| 2 | Gazes Boby | 16.87 | 17.09 | 16.81 | 46 | -0.06 | Won last time | |
| 3 | Airlie Isabella | 16.90 | 17.00 | 16.82 | 48 | -0.08 | Off 3m, never won |
A 268m handicap down Kinsley's famous slope — the front markers get a head start, with Ballymac Addie off four metres and traps 2 and 3 off three, while the three scratch runners give the starts away. History is unsentimental about these races: from 258 handicap runs at this trip, trap 4 is the best box at 24.5% and the fastest-rated dog wins 28% — the back markers, usually the classiest, run them down more often than not. Airlie Isabella has the sharpest break and the best first-bend skills plus a three-metre start, so she will be flying down the hill in front. But Comer Muir, fresh from a 462m win and the top-rated runner here by a distance, sits exactly where the winners come from in these handicaps.
The class runner giving the starts away — top-rated in this field by a wide margin and fresh from winning over 462m here last week with easily his best recent effort. The handicap statistics are firmly in his corner: trap 4 is the best box in these races at nearly one in four, and the fastest-rated dog wins 28% of them, because class from scratch usually runs the front markers down before the line. He will need to pick his way past traffic on the dash down the hill, but the record says his position is exactly where these are won from.
A three-metre start plus the sharpest break and the best first-bend figures in the race — she will be several lengths clear turning down the hill and could make this very uncomfortable for the fancied runners. The catch is stark: she has never won a race in her career. But she has never had a set-up like this either, and second place last week suggests she is close to her peak.
Gets the biggest head start of all — four metres — but she has not won in a very long time, five of her last six ended out of the frame, and she has barely raced in months. The start advantage flatters to deceive: trap 1 wins just 12% of these handicaps despite the head start. Form this cold rarely thaws on demand.
Won at D5 last time and has been improving steadily — first, second and third in his last three — and he gets a three-metre start to work with. If the scratch runners dawdle out of the boxes he is the sort to nick it on the line, and of the front markers he is clearly the one in form.
Runs from scratch with a respectable personal best, but her recent form is a string of unplaced efforts — one bright run months ago does not offset five duds since. Others at the scratch end have far stronger claims.
A scratch runner who has not raced since mid-June and has not beaten more than a dog or two home in months. The wide box is historically kind in these handicaps, but kindness only goes so far — the form simply is not there.
Key insight: In 268m handicaps here the scratch end dominates: trap 4 wins 24.5% from 49 runs and trap 6 wins 23.1%, while trap 1 — despite the biggest head start — wins just 12.2%. The fastest-rated dog wins 28.1% of these, the strongest signal in the race type: class off scratch beats a head start.
T1:12.2% T2:18.0% T3:18.4% T4:24.5% T5:17.1% T6:23.1%
258 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 268m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 268m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (268m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 268m | 462m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ballymac Addie | 0.633 | — | — |
| 2 | Gazes Boby | 0.638 | — | — |
| 3 | Airlie Isabella | 0.634 | 0.644 | 0.611 |
| 4 | Comer Muir | 0.629 | 0.627 | — |
| 5 | Lantern Bright | 0.634 | 0.628 | — |
| 6 | Drombeg Daisy | 0.630 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.