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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hazelgrove Flashb 3y 6 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 54 | 56 (2) | 49 (5) | 63 (1) | 48 (4) | 51 (3) | 62 (1) | 37 (4) | 39 (4) | 62 (1) | 24 (3) | 24 | 31 | 24 | 33 | 53 | 46 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Glenbrookdiamondb 2y 6 | B Heaton — 15% R223 W34 P105 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 68 | 50 (3) | 47 (4) | 46 (4) | 42 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | 47 | 36 | 1 | 10/3 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ballymac Beaud 3y 4 | B Heaton — 15% R223 W34 P105 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 46 | 41 (4) | 54 (2) | 50 (2) | 66 (1) | 48 (4) | 31 (1) | 36 (4) | 31 (1) | 37 (5) | 31 (1) | 28 | 21 | 14 | 27 | 48 | 44 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Meenagh Medinab 3y 13 | I Zivkovic — 13% R588 W79 P277 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 47 | 46 (3) | 47 (4) | 53 (2) | 38 (6) | 23 (5) | 46 (4) | 75 (1) | 52 (4) | 25 (3) | 36 (5) | 19 | 23 | 27 | 22 | 49 | 38 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Bells Meadowd 4y 15 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 36 | 49 (2) | 48 (5) | 48 (5) | 36 (6) | 66 (2) | 51 (3) | 65 (2) | 44 (5) | 70 (1) | 53 (3) | 15 | 25 | 46 | 35 | 51 | 47 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Swift Katb 3y 35 | J S Atkins — 15% R279 W42 P143 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 57 | 50 (2) | 25 (3) | 27 (4) | 31 (1) | 50 (5) | 20 (3) | 79 (3) | 97 (1) | 45 (1) | 79 (2) | 35 | 28 | 18 | 18 | 58 | 38 | 6 | 13/8F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bells Meadow | 28.67 | 29.03 | 28.70 | 58 | +0.03 | Late runner | |
| 4 | Meenagh Medina | 28.75 | 29.22 | 28.94 | 51 | +0.19 | 1 win from 8 C&D | |
| 3 | Ballymac Beau | 28.82 | 29.19 | 28.96 | 49 | +0.14 | Best box at A7 | |
| 1 | Hazelgrove Flash | 28.90 | 29.24 | 28.67 | 49 | -0.23 | Worst box at A7 | |
| 2 | Glenbrookdiamond | 29.03 | 29.27 | 28.73 | 47 | -0.30 | Model pick | |
| 6 | Swift Kat | 29.16 | 29.16 | 28.76 | 45 | -0.40 | Form dog, 1 C&D run |
Kinsley's downhill charge to the first bend rewards fast breakers even over the 462m trip, and at A7 the draw pattern flips completely from the grade below: trap 1, the best box at A6, becomes the WORST at A7, winning barely 11.7%, while trap 3 leads at 20.4% (1,781 runs). Glenbrookdiamond has the sharpest early dash and the best first-bend skills in the field — expect the young improver to be slung clear down the hill from trap 2, the second-best box at this grade. Swift Kat has the pace to press from the wide draw, while Bells Meadow, the quickest on the clock, does all her work late and needs the leaders to come back to her. A tight, ordinary A7 where nothing separates cleanly on the numbers — the definition of an open race, and the front-running improver gets the nod.
Only four career races and no win yet, but she has improved her rating every single time out and owns the sharpest early dash and the best first-bend ability in this field. On a track where the downhill slope slings fast breakers clear, that profile is gold — she should lead them into the first bend from trap 2, the second-best box at this grade. Four runs is a thin body of evidence and this is a speculative vote, but every rival here is exposed and ordinary while she is unexposed and improving. Today could be the day the maiden tag goes.
The best recent form in the race — second at this grade last time out in her only course-and-distance start, clocking a solid 28.76 — and she has enough early speed to lie handy from the wide draw. Her efforts over this full trip read considerably better than her sprint dabbles earlier in the year, which drag her average down. If the young leader wobbles, she is best placed to profit.
A genuine course specialist — 3 wins and 4 places from 9 course-and-distance starts, and second at this grade last time out. Any other day he would be near the top of the shortlist, but trap 1 at A7 is statistically the worst draw at any Kinsley grade, winning barely 11%. History is firmly against the box.
Drawn in the best box at this grade, winning just over 20%, and he has a course-and-distance win among seven tries plus back-to-back seconds earlier this month. Steady rather than spectacular, and his versatile racing style means he can take up whatever position the break gives him.
A middling profile all round — one course-and-distance win from eight attempts, placed third at this grade last time, and a racing style that neither dominates the early exchanges nor storms home late. Nothing about the draw or the pace picture particularly helps or hinders him today.
The quickest in the field on the clock and finished second last time, so ability is not the issue. The problem is how she uses it — all her best work comes late, and Kinsley's downhill start usually means the front runners are too far gone to catch. Trap 5 has been a below-average draw at this grade too.
Key insight: Trap 1 is the worst box at A7 (11.7% from 206 runs) — a complete reversal from A6 where it dominates. Trap 3 leads at 20.4%. The top-rated dog wins just 17.3% at this grade, so the figures alone are close to guesswork here.
T1:11.7% T2:18.7% T3:20.4% T4:16.3% T5:15.4% T6:17.2%
1,781 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Hazelgrove Flash | 49 | 51 | All-Rounder |
2Glenbrookdiamond | 67 | 14 | Fader |
3Ballymac Beau | 50 | 52 | All-Rounder |
4Meenagh Medina | 50 | 49 | All-Rounder |
5Bells Meadow | 32 | 97 | Closer |
6Swift Kat | 58 | 42 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 462m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (462m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 253m | 268m | 450m | 462m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hazelgrove Flash | — | 0.626 | — | 0.633 |
| 2 | Glenbrookdiamond | — | — | — | 0.633 |
| 3 | Ballymac Beau | — | 0.629 | — | 0.632 |
| 4 | Meenagh Medina | — | 0.632 | — | 0.632 |
| 5 | Bells Meadow | — | — | — | 0.628 |
| 6 | Swift Kat | 0.605 | 0.630 | 0.608 | 0.631 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.