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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ballinabola Phild 7y 14 | G C Wright — 23% R107 W25 P59 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 26 | 53 (2) | 56 (3) | 60 (3) | 73 (1) | 68 (1) | 51 (2) | 44 (4) | 16 (3) | 7 (6) | 49 (5) | 42 | 36 | 35 | 33 | 53 | 45 | 2 | 6/4F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Ballyregan Tarab 3y 14 | P T Maynard — 21% R174 W36 P100 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 43 | 51 (3) | 51 (2) | 50 (3) | 57 (3) | 68 (1) | 41 (4) | 54 (3) | 16 (3) | 59 (2) | 43 (5) | 20 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 51 | 37 | 4 | 2/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Arrigle Busterd 2y 7 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 36 | 50 | 66 (1) | 35 (5) | 46 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | 40 | 26 | 3 | 6/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Shanbally Bluesd 3y 18 | G C Wright — 23% R107 W25 P59 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 55 | 53 (3) | 37 (5) | 46 (4) | 69 (1) | 58 (3) | 47 (2) | 56 (3) | 54 (3) | 10 (6) | 22 (1) | - | 24 | 31 | 21 | 48 | 44 | 1 | 11/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Miltown Hopeb 4y 15 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 53 | 50 (2) | 24 (4) | 47 (4) | 50 (4) | 47 (4) | 47 (4) | 56 (3) | 49 (4) | 41 (5) | 49 (2) | 21 | 28 | 8 | 11 | 49 | 41 | 5 | 11/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ballinabola Phil | 29.33 | 29.55 | 29.57 | 50 | +0.24 | Model pick | |
| 2 | Ballyregan Tara | 29.17 | 29.52 | 29.93 | 47 | +0.76 | Closer | |
| 3 | Arrigle Buster | 29.64 | 29.77 | 29.89 | 36 | +0.25 | 2 runs only | |
| 4 | Shanbally Blues | 29.24 | 29.52 | 29.37 | 55 | +0.13 | Danger | |
| 5 | Miltown Hope | 29.43 | 29.67 | 29.48 | 47 | +0.05 | Best trap |
Standard trip at Valley, a tight track with a short run to the first bend where early pace tends to hold the edge over dogs who race from off the pace. In this grade trap 5 and trap 1 have been the two best boxes, both around 22%, with trap 2 the weakest. Ballinabola Phil arrives in trap 1 having been competitive a level higher at A5, including a runner-up finish last time out, and now drops back into this company. Shanbally Blues holds the fastest recorded time in the field and won two starts back. There's a confirmed closer in Ballyregan Tara, whose running style is a tougher fit for this tight circuit regardless of her respectable underlying figures.
Drops down from the tougher A5 grade after finishing runner-up last time out, and his recent performance figures have sat in a tight, competitive band even at that higher level — the highest average rating of anyone in this race. Trap 1 is the second-best box in this grade at nearly 22%, and he's the second-fastest on recorded times too. Trainer G C Wright is among the strongest in the meeting at close to a 30% strike rate. The class edge from stepping down, combined with a strong trap and solid pace, makes this the clearest case in the race.
The fastest dog in the field on recorded times, won two starts back and has been third in each of his last two runs. A balanced, versatile racing style that should suit this tight track reasonably well. Trap 4 is a below-par box in this grade, which is the main structural knock, but the pace on offer makes him a genuine threat if he breaks on terms.
A respectable, very consistent runner on the raw figures, but she's a confirmed finisher who does her best work from off the pace — a tougher ask on Valley's tight circuit where the short run to the first bend favours dogs racing up with the pack. Drawn in the weakest trap in this grade too. Third last time out, in and around the frame throughout her recent starts without quite getting to the front.
Only two runs on record in this system, both at this same grade and both finishing fifth. That's a genuinely small sample to judge him on, and the figures so far — the slowest recorded time in the field — don't give much encouragement. Too little evidence to make a strong case either way, but nothing here points to a winning effort.
Drawn in the best trap in this grade, which is a genuine structural plus, but her recent finishing positions have been stuck around fourth in four of her last five starts, with only a single runner-up effort standing out. Her recorded pace is around the middle of this field. The trap gives her some claims for a place, but nothing in the recent results suggests a winning effort is imminent.
Key insight: Trap 5 and trap 1 are the two strongest boxes in A6 at Valley over 460m, both around 22%. Trap 2 is the weakest at 16.11%. The pick combines the second-best trap with a class drop from competitive A5 form.
T1:21.71% T2:16.11% T3:16.57% T4:16.29% T5:21.97% T6:20.69%
968 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ballinabola Phil | 51 | 44 | All-Rounder |
2Ballyregan Tara | 42 | 81 | Closer |
3Arrigle Buster | 46 | 45 | All-Rounder |
4Shanbally Blues | 55 | 55 | All-Rounder |
5Miltown Hope | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 460m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (460m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 260m | 450m | 460m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ballinabola Phil | — | 0.619 | 0.644 |
| 2 | Ballyregan Tara | — | — | 0.642 |
| 3 | Arrigle Buster | — | — | 0.646 |
| 4 | Shanbally Blues | — | — | 0.641 |
| 5 | Miltown Hope | 0.640 | — | 0.645 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.