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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 2 | ▶ Ashway Granited 4y 35 | A G Rawlings — 20% R188 W37 P108 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | 52 | 55 (4) | 38 (5) | 50 (4) | 44 (5) | 53 (4) | 62 (2) | 73 (1) | 49 (5) | 37 (5) | 74 (1) | 30 | 29 | 31 | 16 | 52 | 36 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Nitro Novab 2y 15 | A G Rawlings — 20% R188 W37 P108 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 49 | 74 (1) | 44 (4) | 70 (1) | 58 (2) | 66 (2) | 41 (5) | 57 (2) | 53 (3) | 46 (5) | 68 (2) | 21 | 39 | 46 | 49 | 59 | 46 | 1 | 8/11F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Chadwell Emrab 2y 36 | G C Wright — 23% R107 W25 P59 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 38 | 46 (6) | 25 (4) | 33 (1) | 26 (4) | 17 (5) | 21 (4) | 43 (5) | 60 (3) | 57 (2) | 67 (2) | 17 | 19 | 23 | - | 53 | 29 | 4 | 7/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Metric Busterd 2y 17 | G C Wright — 23% R107 W25 P59 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 54 | 69 (1) | 47 (3) | 38 (4) | 66 (1) | 33 (1) | 44 (3) | 22 (2) | 15 (4) | 73 (5) | - | 44 | 29 | 24 | 29 | 49 | 39 | 3 | 8/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Gavins Caked 3y 15 | C Darch — 22% R365 W79 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 50 | 73 (1) | 61 (3) | 52 (3) | 27 (3) | 46 (5) | 42 (5) | 70 (1) | 33 (3) | 34 (2) | 73 (1) | 58 | 32 | 25 | 40 | 60 | 48 | 2 | 4/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ashway Granite | 29.15 | 29.59 | 29.60 | 41 | +0.45 | Slowest in field | |
| 3 | Nitro Nova | 28.94 | 29.36 | 29.07 | 56 | +0.13 | Danger | |
| 4 | Chadwell Emra | 29.35 | 29.35 | 29.35 | 46 | 0.00 | Erratic pace | |
| 5 | Metric Buster | 29.26 | 29.65 | 29.26 | 43 | 0.00 | Best trap | |
| 6 | Gavins Cake | 29.06 | 29.35 | 29.20 | 53 | +0.14 | Model pick |
Valley's standard trip is a tight track with a short run to the first bend, and confirmed closers historically find the sharp turns hard work compared to dogs who race up with the pace. Trap 1 has been the best box in this grade but is a non-runner today, leaving trap 5 as the strongest of the remaining draws at just over 21%, with trap 2 the weakest. Nitro Nova is the fastest in the race on recorded times but does her best work from off the pace — the running style that tends to struggle here — while Gavins Cake combines a near-identical turn of speed with a more versatile, balanced racing style and the best average performance figures in the field. Both won last time out, setting up an interesting head-to-head between raw pace and race-shape suitability.
Won last time out at this same grade and holds the highest average performance rating in the field, built on a run of consistently improving form. Only the trap 3 dog is faster on recorded times, and the gap between them is minimal, while his balanced, versatile racing style should hold up better than a pure closer on Valley's tight turns. Trainer C Darch sits around a 20% strike rate. With a near-identical turn of foot to the fastest dog in the race and a racing style better suited to the track, plus the strongest overall form figures on offer, this looks the shrewd choice.
The fastest dog in the field on recorded times and won last time out at this same grade. She's a confirmed finisher who does her best work from off the pace, which is normally a tougher ask on Valley's tight circuit where the short run to the first bend and sharp turns don't give closers much room to work with. Her recent form has been solid without being spectacular beyond that last win. If she can overcome the running-style question, the raw pace on offer makes her the biggest threat to the selection.
The slowest dog in the field on recorded times and drawn in trap 2, which has been the weakest box in this grade. A run of modest finishes recently — fourth or fifth in four of her last five starts, with a second-place effort mixed in. Hard to find a strong case for her against sharper rivals here.
Drops down from the tougher A4 grade after finishing last time out, though the form leading into that was more encouraging over the shorter trip. Her pace figures swing wildly between runs, making her hard to trust, and trap 4 has been a below-par box in this grade. The drop in company is the main thing in her favour.
Drawn in the best available trap in this grade and won last time out, though that was at the easier A6 level and she steps up today. A balanced, very consistent runner who doesn't lean too hard on one phase of the race, but her recorded pace is towards the slower end of this field. The trap is a genuine plus; the step up in grade and modest pace figures are the questions.
Key insight: Trap 1 is the standout box in A5 at Valley over 460m (23.86%) but is a non-runner today, leaving trap 5 as the best available draw at 21.29%. Trap 2 is the weakest at 14%. Composite rank 1 wins 28.66% here, one of the stronger composite signals across today's card.
T1:23.86% T2:14.00% T3:18.59% T4:14.63% T5:21.29% T6:18.95%
1,135 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
2Ashway Granite | 46 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Nitro Nova | 48 | 62 | Closer |
4Chadwell Emra | 100 | 0 | Fader |
5Metric Buster | 52 | 38 | All-Rounder |
6Gavins Cake | 50 | 52 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 460m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (460m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 260m | 450m | 460m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ashway Granite | — | — | 0.643 |
| 3 | Nitro Nova | — | — | 0.638 |
| 4 | Chadwell Emra | 0.645 | 0.614 | 0.638 |
| 5 | Metric Buster | 0.636 | 0.616 | 0.645 |
| 6 | Gavins Cake | 0.631 | — | 0.638 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.