Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Crokers Lisab 2y 16 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 29 (3) | 38 (1) | 69 (3) | 35 (3) | 35 (2) | 31 (2) | 33 (1) | 27 (3) | 28 (4) | 33 (2) | 36 | 33 | 30 | 38 | 33 | 34 | 3 | 5/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Naughty Aceb 1y 8 | G C Wright — 23% R107 W25 P59 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 33 (2) | 34 (1) | 30 (3) | 33 (3) | 25 (4) | 30 (5) | 63 (4) | 59 (2) | 40 (6) | - | 1 | 27 | 12 | 32 | 32 | 29 | 1 | 5/6F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Comer Sueb 2y 7 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | - | 24 (5) | 34 (2) | 34 (1) | 29 (1) | 24 (2) | 26 (3) | 27 (2) | 25 (3) | 29 (2) | 24 (4) | 28 | 33 | 14 | 40 | 28 | 30 | 6 | 25/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Crokers Wiffend 2y 8 | C Darch — 22% R365 W79 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | - | 27 (4) | 80 (2) | 35 (1) | 26 (2) | 54 (4) | 29 (4) | 30 (2) | 24 (4) | 29 (3) | 27 (5) | 38 | 33 | 23 | 43 | 29 | 32 | 4 | 10/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Only The Futureb 3y 6 | A L Jeffery — 19% R347 W67 P185 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | - | 19 (6) | 37 (1) | 21 (6) | 33 (1) | 20 (5) | 23 (4) | 20 (6) | 31 (2) | 37 (6) | 43 (4) | 33 | 33 | 32 | 38 | 27 | 30 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Vixons Lionheartd 2y 9 | C Darch — 22% R365 W79 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 15 (6) | 30 (3) | 34 (3) | 60 (2) | 29 (4) | 37 (1) | 29 (4) | 29 (2) | 30 (4) | 37 (1) | 36 | 34 | 44 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 2 | 2/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crokers Lisa | 16.20 | 16.40 | 16.20 | 53 | 0.00 | Weak trap | |
| 2 | Naughty Ace | 16.23 | 16.39 | 16.23 | 53 | 0.00 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Comer Sue | 16.30 | 16.66 | 16.74 | 39 | +0.44 | Slowest in field | |
| 4 | Crokers Wiffen | 16.00 | 16.53 | 16.00 | 57 | 0.00 | Closer, oppose | |
| 5 | Only The Future | 16.40 | 16.68 | 16.42 | 41 | +0.02 | Lacks pace | |
| 6 | Vixons Lionheart | 16.20 | 16.44 | 16.35 | 50 | +0.15 | Closer, oppose |
Another minimum-trip sprint at Valley, where the tight little circuit gives closers almost no chance to make up lost ground once the front pair have gone. Today's D3 numbers put trap 6 and trap 2 as the two best boxes over nearly 2,000 runs, with trap 1 the weakest by some distance. Two of the six runners here are out-and-out closers by running style — a profile that simply doesn't work at 260 metres on this track, no matter how well they finish elsewhere — so the shape of this race really comes down to who's sharpest away from the boxes. Naughty Ace has by far the best early pace figures in the field and gets across cleanly before fading late, which at this trip is exactly the right way round. Crokers Lisa is fast enough to go with her but starts from the weakest box in the grade.
The best early pace figures in the entire field by a wide margin, and drawn in trap 2, the second-best box in this grade over almost 2,000 runs here. She's the type who gets to the front and fades late, but at this minimum trip that fading tendency barely matters — there simply isn't time for anyone to reel her back in once she's clear. Placed second last time out and has been a model of consistency through her recent starts without a bad run mixed in. Trainer G C Wright is in good form at close to a 30% strike rate. The combination of best pace and a strong trap makes her the type to be positive about.
Won last time out at this exact grade, course and distance, and matches the pick for recorded pace — only the trap 4 dog goes quicker on the clock. The concern is the draw: trap 1 has been comfortably the weakest box in D3 races here, winning under 15% of the time from over 300 runs, which is a real structural disadvantage at a track where the first few strides decide so much. If she breaks well despite the poor draw history, she's fast enough to be the biggest threat to the selection.
The slowest dog in the field on recorded times and finished fifth last time out at this same grade and track. Trap 3 carries a reasonable record here but her own form doesn't suggest she can exploit it, with only one placed finish in her last three starts. Hard to make a strong case for her at the business end.
The fastest dog in the race on recorded times and was runner-up in a much tougher open race last time out, so there's real ability here. But she's a confirmed finisher who does her best work from off the pace — and at Valley over the minimum trip there simply isn't enough time or room for a closing run to land. Her early pace figures are the weakest of the non-slowest runners, which backs up the concern. Talented, but fighting the shape of the race.
Won last time out at this same grade and has been a genuinely consistent performer with a balanced running style that doesn't lean too hard on early pace or a late kick. The issue is raw speed — she's towards the back of this field on recorded times, and trap 5 is one of the weaker boxes in this grade. A consistent sort but needs more pace to trouble the front two.
Drawn in the best trap in this grade, which is a genuine plus, but he's another confirmed closer who does his best work finishing off races rather than making the running — exactly the wrong profile for a track where there's no time to close at the minimum trip. Third last time out and reasonably consistent, but the running style works against him regardless of how good the box is.
Key insight: Trap 6 and trap 2 are the two strongest boxes in D3 at Valley over 260m. Trap 1 is the weakest at 14.98%. Two confirmed closers in this field (traps 4 and 6) run against the grain of a track where closers structurally can't win at the minimum trip.
T1:14.98% T2:21.31% T3:19.22% T4:16.93% T5:16.77% T6:22.99%
1,921 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 260m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (260m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 260m | 450m | 460m | 650m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crokers Lisa | 0.632 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Naughty Ace | 0.631 | 0.624 | — | 0.434 |
| 3 | Comer Sue | 0.641 | — | — | — |
| 4 | Crokers Wiffen | 0.635 | — | 0.641 | — |
| 5 | Only The Future | 0.643 | — | 0.651 | — |
| 6 | Vixons Lionheart | 0.636 | — | 0.636 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.