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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Affleck Henbitd 3y 8 | C Darch — 22% R365 W79 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | - | 22 (2) | 25 (3) | 47 (4) | 37 (6) | 36 (5) | 44 (5) | 64 (4) | 67 (2) | 57 (4) | 78 (2) | 37 | 28 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Daisy Doob 3y 16 | P T Maynard — 21% R174 W36 P100 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 32 (1) | 25 (3) | 18 (5) | 26 (3) | 28 (3) | 22 (4) | 27 (2) | 17 (5) | 29 (2) | 30 (3) | 37 | 21 | 28 | 17 | 25 | 27 | 3 | 9/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Roseberry Beanrib 4y 26 | A L Jeffery — 19% R347 W67 P185 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 17 (6) | 30 (1) | 24 (3) | 26 (2) | 26 (2) | 30 (1) | 15 (5) | 20 (5) | 17 (5) | 20 (5) | 29 | 20 | 16 | 39 | 24 | 26 | 4 | 16/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Baggios Gizmod 3y 5 | A L Jeffery — 19% R347 W67 P185 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 63 | - | 29 (3) | 31 (2) | 34 (1) | 20 (5) | 19 (6) | 33 (2) | 34 (1) | 31 (2) | 28 (2) | 28 (3) | 28 | 32 | 45 | 49 | 29 | 31 | 2 | 8/15F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Chadwell Tysond 3y 7 | G C Wright — 23% R107 W25 P59 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 23 (4) | 31 (4) | 18 (1) | 22 (6) | 10 (4) | 16 (6) | 40 (3) | 52 (5) | 48 (1) | - | 19 | 12 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 21 | 1 | 7/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Affleck Henbit | 16.68 | 16.93 | 17.18 | 38 | +0.50 | Closer, oppose | |
| 2 | Daisy Doo | 16.43 | 16.76 | 16.92 | 48 | +0.49 | Steady | |
| 3 | Roseberry Beanri | 16.57 | 16.94 | 16.72 | 46 | +0.15 | Grade rise | |
| 4 | Baggios Gizmo | 16.28 | 16.52 | 16.42 | 63 | +0.14 | Danger | |
| 5 | Chadwell Tyson | 16.51 | 16.75 | 16.58 | 53 | +0.07 | Model pick |
Back to the minimum trip at Valley, where there's no room for anyone held up early to work their way through. Trap 5 has been the standout box in this exact grade over more than 2,300 runs, winning close to 23% of the time, with trap 1 the weakest at under 16%. There's a confirmed closer in this field in Affleck Henbit — a running style that simply doesn't work at 260 metres here — while Chadwell Tyson combines the best trap in the grade with by far the sharpest early pace of anyone lined up. Baggios Gizmo carries the fastest recorded time in the race and drops down from a tougher grade last time out, giving him a real look-in too. Whoever's quickest away from trap 5 or 6 should be doing most of the early running.
Drawn in trap 5, comfortably the best box in this grade at close to 23% from over 2,300 runs, and holds by far the sharpest early pace figures of anyone in this field. At a track and trip where there's no time to close, getting there first from the best box is the winning formula, and this is the clearest combination of the two in the race. His finishing average is modest and his pace can be inconsistent from run to run, but the raw speed away from the traps combined with the strongest trap in the grade gives him a genuine structural edge that the raw performance numbers alone don't capture. Trainer G C Wright sits at a healthy 28% strike rate.
The fastest dog in the race on recorded times and drops down in grade after finishing second at the tougher D3 level last time out — a promising sign that he's ahead of this company on pure ability. His balanced running style doesn't lean too hard on early pace or a late kick, which should suit him reasonably well even from a trap that's only produced middling returns in this grade. Trainer A L Jeffery is in good form at close to a 30% strike rate. The main danger to the selection if he breaks on terms.
A confirmed finisher who does his best work from off the pace — exactly the wrong running style for Valley's minimum trip, where there simply isn't time for a closing run to land. Placed second last time out but that was at this same lower grade. Drawn in trap 1, which has been the weakest box in this grade too. Two structural strikes against him here.
A consistent if unspectacular sort — third last time out and rarely far away, but without a win in her recent starts. Middling recorded pace and a fair trap in this grade, but nothing here stands out enough to make a strong case for the win. More likely to pick up a place if the pace up front falls apart.
Won last time out but at the easier D5 grade, and steps up to D4 today. Her recorded pace is around the middle of this field and the trap she's drawn in has been unremarkable in this grade. A workmanlike sort who'll need more from the clock to win at this level.
Key insight: Trap 5 is the standout box in D4 at Valley over 260m (22.55% from 377 runs), with trap 6 close behind (20.74%). Trap 1 is the weakest at 15.63%. Speed rank 1 wins 25.88%, the strongest single signal in this dataset.
T1:15.63% T2:17.27% T3:16.62% T4:17.11% T5:22.55% T6:20.74%
2,309 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 260m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (260m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 260m | 450m | 460m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Affleck Henbit | 0.651 | — | 0.639 |
| 2 | Daisy Doo | 0.645 | — | — |
| 3 | Roseberry Beanri | 0.652 | — | — |
| 4 | Baggios Gizmo | 0.635 | — | — |
| 5 | Chadwell Tyson | 0.651 | 0.626 | 0.652 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.