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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 2 | ▶ Tiny Dancerb 4y 26 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 49 | 45 (5) | 47 (5) | 46 (5) | 38 (5) | 59 (3) | 51 (4) | 57 (2) | 37 (5) | 71 (1) | 56 (3) | 35 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 50 | 43 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Hawkfield Elvisd 2y 25 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 39 | 57 (2) | 80 (3) | 55 (3) | 58 (2) | 69 (1) | 57 (3) | 52 (3) | 46 (5) | 69 (1) | 42 (5) | 29 | 28 | 45 | 29 | 62 | 38 | 3 | 4/5F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ My Little Farmerd 2y 26 | P T Maynard — 21% R174 W36 P100 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 31 | 96 | 19 (5) | 24 (3) | 22 (4) | 28 (2) | 26 (3) | 27 (2) | 29 (1) | 23 (3) | 25 (5) | 36 (6) | 18 | 23 | 5 | - | 30 | 29 | 5 | 10/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Roanna Jackd 4y 15 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 44 | 44 (3) | 48 (4) | 46 (5) | 62 (2) | 37 (5) | 54 (2) | 44 (5) | 72 (1) | 51 (4) | 42 (5) | 24 | 29 | 43 | 27 | 50 | 47 | 1 | 5/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Hawkfield Tiptoed 3y 5 | A L Jeffery — 19% R347 W67 P185 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 72 | 53 (3) | 62 (2) | 65 (1) | 37 (6) | 42 (6) | 53 (4) | 26 (5) | 22 (6) | 37 (2) | 31 (4) | 40 | 36 | 32 | 32 | 53 | 45 | 2 | 9/4 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tiny Dancer | 28.94 | 29.47 | 29.56 | 52 | +0.62 | Weak trap | |
| 3 | Hawkfield Elvis | 29.24 | 29.44 | 29.45 | 50 | +0.21 | Danger, top form | |
| 4 | My Little Farmer | 29.53 | 29.77 | 30.01 | 31 | +0.48 | First try at trip | |
| 5 | Roanna Jack | 28.88 | 29.44 | 29.43 | 56 | +0.55 | Best trap, closer | |
| 6 | Hawkfield Tiptoe | 29.21 | 29.76 | 29.21 | 48 | 0.00 | Model pick |
Standard trip on Valley's tight circuit, where the short run to the first bend generally favours dogs racing up with the pace over confirmed closers. Trap 5 has been the best available box in this grade at nearly 22%, with trap 2 the weakest. Hawkfield Elvis arrives with by far the highest average performance figures in the field, built partly on a recent run over the much longer 645-metre marathon trip, but he's a confirmed closer with an erratic pace pattern — a tougher combination on this track. Hawkfield Tiptoe combines a decent trap with strong early pace and the meeting's most in-form trainer, having won two starts back and finished runner-up last time out.
Won two starts back and was runner-up last time out, showing solid, improving recent form at this exact grade. His early pace figures are among the strongest in the field, and being fast early but capable of holding it together suits a track where getting into a forward position matters. Trap 6 has been a reasonably productive box in this grade. Trainer A L Jeffery is the standout in the field at close to a 30% strike rate, a meaningful supporting signal. The blend of solid recent form, useful early pace and the best trainer in the race makes this the shrewdest way in.
By some distance the highest average performance figures in this field, including a recent run over the much longer 645-metre marathon trip in tough open-race company, where he was competitive. He's a confirmed finisher who does his best work from off the pace, and his pace pattern swings wildly from run to run — a combination that's a harder fit on Valley's tight circuit, where the short run to the first bend generally rewards dogs racing prominently. If the raw quality shows up regardless of running style, he's the biggest danger to the selection.
A balanced, versatile runner with the second-fastest recorded time in the field, but her recent finishes have mostly been down the field — fifth in three of her last six starts, with a couple of placed efforts mixed in. Drawn in the weakest trap for this grade, which compounds the modest recent form.
Switches up from the minimum trip at the lower D4 grade, where his sharp early pace was one of the standout figures in his races. That early speed could translate well to the longer trip and this tighter track, but it's a first look at this test and the slowest recorded time of this field over 460 metres raises a real question about whether he stays on. Trap 4 is a below-par box in this grade too.
The fastest dog in the field on recorded times and drawn in the best available trap in this grade — a strong combination on paper. The catch is her running style: she's a confirmed finisher who does her best work from off the pace, which tends to be a tougher ask on this tight circuit. Fourth last time out and generally competitive without quite winning recently.
Key insight: Trap 5 is the strongest available box in A6 at Valley over 460m (21.97%), trap 2 the weakest (16.11%). The highest raw performance figures in the field belong to a confirmed closer with erratic pace, while the pick offers a more balanced, trap-suited profile.
T1:21.71% T2:16.11% T3:16.57% T4:16.29% T5:21.97% T6:20.69%
968 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
2Tiny Dancer | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Hawkfield Elvis | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4My Little Farmer | 95 | 0 | Fader |
5Roanna Jack | 44 | 58 | Closer |
6Hawkfield Tiptoe | 64 | 5 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 460m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (460m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 260m | 460m | 462m | 645m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tiny Dancer | — | 0.641 | — | — |
| 3 | Hawkfield Elvis | — | 0.640 | — | 0.648 |
| 4 | My Little Farmer | 0.648 | — | 0.647 | — |
| 5 | Roanna Jack | — | 0.641 | — | — |
| 6 | Hawkfield Tiptoe | 0.637 | 0.648 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.