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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Geneva Josieb 3y 4 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 26 (4) | 31 (3) | 31 (3) | 29 (3) | 29 (3) | 33 (1) | 27 (2) | 20 (5) | 30 (1) | 28 (1) | 47 | 37 | 2 | 35 | 29 | 33 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Home Grainneb 3y 15 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 25 (4) | 22 (5) | 29 (3) | 28 (4) | 33 (1) | 26 (3) | 32 (2) | 25 (5) | 27 (2) | 26 (3) | 35 | 23 | 7 | 15 | 27 | 25 | 5 | 16/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Shelone Niftyb 3y 8 | A L Jeffery — 19% R347 W67 P185 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 37 (1) | 31 (1) | 16 (6) | 24 (6) | 38 (5) | 17 (1) | 26 (6) | 33 (5) | 27 (2) | - | 26 | 22 | 34 | 34 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 5/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Lady Fernb 2y 8 | G C Wright — 23% R107 W25 P59 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 33 (1) | 21 (4) | 30 (1) | 29 (2) | 19 (4) | 76 (1) | 46 (3) | 46 (2) | 40 (2) | 29 (6) | 46 | 39 | - | 47 | 27 | 28 | 2 | 4/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Affleck Salsabilb 3y 17 | C Darch — 22% R365 W79 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | - | 69 (5) | 28 (4) | 64 (2) | 39 (1) | 33 (2) | 66 (3) | 64 (3) | 59 (4) | 27 (4) | 38 (1) | 24 | 37 | 31 | 40 | 33 | 30 | 1 | 4/7F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Affleck Nashwand 3y 9 | C Darch — 22% R365 W79 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | - | 34 (1) | 32 (2) | 26 (3) | 25 (3) | 30 (3) | 33 (2) | 24 (6) | 29 (4) | 27 (5) | 39 (1) | 33 | 22 | 22 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geneva Josie | 16.46 | 16.68 | 16.46 | 48 | 0.00 | Weak trap | |
| 2 | Home Grainne | 16.39 | 16.65 | 16.66 | 47 | +0.27 | Steady trap | |
| 3 | Shelone Nifty | 16.28 | 16.80 | 16.70 | 44 | +0.42 | Slowest in field | |
| 4 | Lady Fern | 16.44 | 16.72 | 16.44 | 48 | 0.00 | Grade rise | |
| 5 | Affleck Salsabil | 16.16 | 16.36 | 16.38 | 60 | +0.22 | Danger | |
| 6 | Affleck Nashwan | 16.15 | 16.54 | 16.28 | 58 | +0.13 | Model pick |
Valley's 260m sprint is one of the shortest tests in the country — a tight, small track with almost no time for anyone held up early to get back into it. The general trap pattern here has trap 3 as the strongest box and trap 4 as a near-death draw, but today's grade-specific numbers from nearly 2,000 runs at D3 tell a different story: trap 6 is the standout at this level, winning almost 23% of the time, trap 1 is the one to avoid at under 15%, and trap 4 sits only just below average rather than being a structural elimination. The fastest dog in the race on the clock is drawn in trap 5, and at this trip a quick-breaking dog who fades late can still hold on because there simply isn't the room or time for a closer to reel them in. Whoever gets across from the good boxes early holds a big edge; anyone left flat-footed at the traps is playing catch-up on a track that doesn't forgive it.
Won last time out at the lower D4 grade and drawn in trap 6, which has been the standout box in this exact grade over the course and distance — a near-23% strike rate from almost 2,000 runs, well clear of the rest of the field. Only the trap 5 dog has a faster recorded time, and the gap between them is minimal, so he loses almost nothing on pure pace while holding a significantly better draw. Trainer C Darch sits around a 20% strike rate, a reasonable supporting signal. With a recent win under his belt and the best trap in the grade, this looks the shrewd booking of the race.
The fastest dog in the field on recent times and the sharpest away from the traps too, which matters enormously at a trip where there's no time to make up lost ground. Her form has bounced around — a big performance dropping back from open company last time out, mixed with some quieter efforts in between — but she was competing in much stronger races than this only a couple of runs ago and drops back into an easier grade today. Trap 5 is a below-average box in this grade, and she tends to be at her best early before others close in late, but at this minimal trip that fading tendency matters far less than it would over a longer distance. The one most likely to beat the selection if she gets across well.
Consistently there or thereabouts without doing anything spectacular — third in each of her last four starts. Drawn in trap 1, which has been the weakest box in this grade over almost 2,000 runs here, and her early pace figures don't stand out enough to overcome that. A minor-placed sort who needs things to fall right rather than a genuine winning claim.
A fair second-string trap today — trap 2 has been the second-best box in this grade — but the form doesn't back it up, with finishes of fourth, fifth, third and fourth in her last four starts. Her early pace and closing figures are the slowest on offer alongside the trap 3 runner, and she looks to need a career-best to figure prominently against sharper types drawn either side of her.
Won last time out at the lower D4 grade and steps up in company today. Trap 3 is traditionally the standout box at Valley over the minimum trip, though today's larger D3 sample has it as a solid rather than spectacular option. The clock is the concern — she's the slowest of the six on recorded times, and stepping up a grade off that kind of pace makes her hard to fancy for the win, even with a favourable draw.
Won two of her last three starts, both at lower grades, and now faces a step up to D3. Trap 4 has a reputation as a near-unwinnable draw at Valley over 260 metres, though the actual D3 numbers this season put it closer to the middle of the pack rather than a lost cause. Matches the pick and the main danger on early speed figures without quite matching either for peak pace, and the rise in grade off a run of easier company adds a question mark.
Key insight: Trap 6 is comfortably the best box in D3 at Valley over 260m (22.99% from 274 runs) — well ahead of the wider track's aggregate trap-3 bias. Trap 1 is the weakest at 14.98%. Speed rank 1 wins 27.64%, the strongest single signal in this dataset.
T1:14.98% T2:21.31% T3:19.22% T4:16.93% T5:16.77% T6:22.99%
1,921 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 260m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (260m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 245m | 260m | 330m | 460m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geneva Josie | — | 0.639 | — | — |
| 2 | Home Grainne | — | 0.640 | — | — |
| 3 | Shelone Nifty | 0.617 | 0.645 | — | — |
| 4 | Lady Fern | — | 0.643 | 0.566 | — |
| 5 | Affleck Salsabil | — | 0.631 | — | 0.633 |
| 6 | Affleck Nashwan | — | 0.636 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.