Arena Racing Company Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Coppice Cochised 2y 18 | J J Fenwick — 18% R498 W92 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 52 | 56 (1) | 56 (1) | 30 (4) | 28 (5) | 34 (1) | 24 (6) | 42 (2) | 41 (5) | 30 (5) | 29 (5) | 25 | 23 | 43 | 21 | 37 | 35 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Millroad Mysteryb 1y 4 | T C Heilbron — 17% R234 W39 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 39 | 37 (4) | 53 (2) | 52 (2) | 43 (4) | 52 (3) | 61 (3) | 43 (4) | - | - | - | 18 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 48 | 43 | 1 | 6/5F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Canny Smilerb 1y 7 | P Rutherford — 18% R331 W59 P166 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 35 | 45 (4) | 38 (4) | 30 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | 34 | 32 | 4 | 9/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Howay Matteod 2y 1 | J J Fenwick — 18% R498 W92 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | - | 25 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Whitehills Louisd 2yN/R 15 | R J Buckton — 20% R208 W42 P115 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 52 | 36 (4) | 43 (5) | 36 (5) | 37 (5) | 46 (3) | 38 (5) | 48 (3) | 61 (1) | 49 (2) | 57 (1) | 24 | 21 | 23 | 13 | 42 | 40 | - | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Canny Adelaideb 5y 14 | P Rutherford — 18% R331 W59 P166 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 55 | 50 (2) | 44 (5) | 56 (6) | 44 (2) | 32 (1) | 50 (3) | 54 (4) | 19 (2) | - | - | 30 | 26 | 34 | 27 | 47 | 44 | 3 | 11/4 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coppice Cochise | 29.95 | 30.27 | 29.96 | 50 | +0.01 | Won LTO, improving | |
| 2 | Millroad Mystery | 29.76 | 30.00 | 30.29 | 54 | +0.53 | 0 wins from 7 here | |
| 3 | Canny Smiler | 30.13 | 30.34 | 30.13 | 44 | 0.00 | Only 2 races logged | |
| 4 | Howay Matteo | No recent races on file - a complete unknown with nothing to judge him on. | — | No recorded form | ||||
| 5 | Whitehills Louis | 29.75 | 29.98 | 30.18 | 56 | +0.43 | Drops in grade, best trap | |
| 6 | Canny Adelaide | 29.99 | 30.17 | 30.09 | 50 | +0.10 | Model pick, 25% C&D | |
Newcastle's 480 metres plays fair with a long home straight, and at A8 level trap 5 has been by far the best box at 24.57%, with trap 2 the weakest at 14.45%. This looks a modest but competitive grade with no standout on pure pace. Canny Adelaide is the model's top pick and has the best course and distance record in the field, though she's a fader who tends to give up ground late. Coppice Cochise is the one bringing the most improving momentum, having just won last time out with the best rating anyone here has shown recently after a string of quieter efforts. Millroad Mystery is the fastest through the middle stages and a strong finisher but has never actually won at this course and distance. Howay Matteo has no recorded form at all and is a complete unknown tonight.
The model's top-rated dog here and has the best course and distance record in the field - two wins and four places from eight runs, a 25% strike rate backed up by a 50% place record. Trainer P Rutherford shares the best win rate in this race at 28%. A fader who shows early pace but weakens late, which is a small concern on this long straight, but the underlying form and course and distance data give her the edge.
Won last time out with a rating of 56 - the best figure anyone in this field has produced recently - after a string of quieter efforts beforehand. That win suggests he's found his form at just the right time. Nine runs at this course and distance have brought one win and two places, a modest record, but the current momentum is the strongest story in this race.
Carries the highest average performance rating in this field and is a strong finisher who does his best work late, which suits the long run to the line here. But seven runs at this course and distance have produced no wins at all, which is hard to square with his otherwise solid figures, and he's drawn in the weakest box at this grade.
Drops down in grade after finishing fourth at a higher level last time out, which could bring some relief tonight, and carries the fastest recorded time in this field from the best-performing box at this grade. Course and distance form is fair at two wins and three places from ten. An all-rounder who races flexibly, giving him a squeak if the pace sets up right.
Only two races on file so far, both modest, and no course and distance form to speak of yet. A closer who does his best work late, but with so little evidence available it's hard to make a strong case either way. Trainer P Rutherford has a decent win rate at 28% which offers some encouragement.
A complete unknown tonight with no recorded races on file at all, so there is nothing concrete to judge him on beyond the fact that his trainer also handles the improving Coppice Cochise. Impossible to make a genuine case for or against him with no form to reference.
Key insight: The composite top pick wins 20.6% at this grade, a workable if modest edge, with trap 5 standing out as by far the best box at nearly 25%.
T1:19.47% T2:14.45% T3:21.24% T4:17.69% T5:24.57% T6:18.18%
1,420 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Coppice Cochise | 50 | 35 | All-Rounder |
2Millroad Mystery | 39 | 81 | Closer |
3Canny Smiler | 28 | 88 | Closer |
4Howay Matteo | — | — | No data |
5Whitehills Louis | 52 | 50 | All-Rounder |
6Canny Adelaide | 56 | 25 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coppice Cochise | 0.608 | 0.631 |
| 2 | Millroad Mystery | — | 0.626 |
| 3 | Canny Smiler | — | 0.630 |
| 4 | Howay Matteo | — | — |
| 6 | Canny Adelaide | 0.619 | 0.628 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.