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Wednesday
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Coppice Melbelleb 2y 8 | J J Fenwick — 18% R498 W92 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 42 | 61 (1) | 61 (1) | 55 (2) | 41 (4) | 42 (4) | 43 (5) | 67 (1) | 43 (5) | 62 (1) | 35 (5) | 32 | 28 | 19 | 46 | 53 | 50 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Billys Bakerd 2y 27 | P Rutherford — 18% R331 W59 P166 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 55 | 42 (3) | 45 (4) | 46 (4) | 53 (3) | 60 (2) | 48 (4) | 59 (3) | 61 (2) | 55 (3) | 58 (3) | 26 | 26 | 10 | 15 | 50 | 36 | 1 | 9/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Alnwick Aurorab 2y 7 | A Harrison — 22% R543 W118 P320 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 51 | 40 (4) | 40 (6) | 53 (4) | 61 (1) | 46 (5) | 51 (3) | 62 (1) | 51 (5) | 50 (3) | 61 (1) | 21 | 28 | 7 | 25 | 49 | 42 | 5 | 12/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Neon Puns Graveld 2y 6 | T C Heilbron — 17% R234 W39 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 35 | 41 (5) | 34 (6) | 39 (5) | 72 (1) | 40 (5) | 40 (5) | 45 (5) | 58 (3) | 52 (2) | 58 (3) | 6 | 28 | 27 | 19 | 46 | 42 | 6 | 11/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Ekitiked 2y 5 | J T Edgar — 17% R536 W89 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 55 | 57 (4) | 36 (5) | 60 (2) | 49 (5) | 50 (4) | 46 (4) | 43 (4) | 61 (2) | 31 (6) | 66 (2) | 29 | 31 | 22 | 21 | 49 | 50 | 2 | 10/11F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Hazelhill Blueb 4y 26 | D Blackbird — 16% R1120 W183 P620 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 56 | 38 (6) | 39 (6) | 50 (2) | 38 (4) | 41 (6) | 39 (5) | 67 (6) | 24 (1) | 40 (5) | - | 21 | 34 | 31 | 24 | 44 | 43 | 3 | 6/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coppice Melbelle | 29.68 | 29.91 | 29.75 | 52 | +0.07 | 2 C&D wins running | |
| 2 | Billys Baker | 29.49 | 29.79 | 30.38 | 48 | +0.89 | 0 wins from 10 here | |
| 3 | Alnwick Aurora | 29.65 | 29.86 | 30.08 | 48 | +0.43 | 30% at C&D | |
| 4 | Neon Puns Gravel | 29.51 | 29.93 | 29.87 | 53 | +0.36 | Peak 3 runs back | |
| 5 | Ekitike | 29.34 | 29.70 | 30.02 | 57 | +0.68 | 0 wins from 10 here | |
| 6 | Hazelhill Blue | 29.58 | 29.94 | 30.12 | 47 | +0.54 | Dropping in grade |
Newcastle's 480 metre trip is a fair, galloping test with a long home straight, so this isn't a track where the draw settles matters early - trap 5 has actually been the standout box here at 25 percent over the full sample, with trap 6 the weakest, but in this grade specifically the draw bias is much flatter and pace and recent form carry more weight. Coppice Melbelle looks the one to beat from trap 1, arriving on the back of two course and distance wins on the bounce and stepping up in grade off the back of that form. Ekitike goes off the fastest recent times from trap 5 and will be up with the pace early, but he's a fader who loses ground late and has never won at this course and distance despite the good draw. Alnwick Aurora and Billys Baker both race in the all-rounder mould and should sit handy without threatening to dominate, while Hazelhill Blue drops down in grade after a well-beaten run and looks the one with most to find.
Won her last two starts, both over this course and distance, and steps up in grade off the back of that form rather than being dropped in to find a soft one. Ten runs at Newcastle over 480 metres have brought four wins and five places - a serious course and distance record - and she carries the best recent form rating in this field. A confirmed closer, she'll be doing her best work in the closing stages, which suits the long home straight here. The one they all have to catch.
The fastest dog in this field on recent times and drawn in trap 5, historically the best box at this course and distance. But he's a fader who shows brilliant pace early and loses ground in the closing stages, and remarkably he has never won in ten runs over this course and distance despite the favourable draw. Last time out was well below his best, a peak of 60 in recent form suggesting he retains ability, but the finishing question is real. The one to beat the pick if the pace sets up for him.
An all-rounder who races handy without ever quite hitting the front, and his trainer has the best win rate of anyone in this race at 28%. But ten runs at this course and distance have brought no wins and just two places, and his last time out effort was well below his best time. Needs things to fall right rather than dictating matters himself.
Another all-rounder type with a reasonable record at this course and distance - three wins and three places from ten runs, a 30% strike rate that's better than most in this field. Form has been steady rather than spectacular and she'll need the run of the race, but the course and distance form means she can't be dismissed if the favoured runners disappoint.
A closer who hit a peak rating of 72 three runs back but hasn't threatened that level since, with recent form in the 34-41 range. Course and distance form is modest at just one win from ten. The speed figures are competitive but the profile doesn't inspire confidence that he reproduces that one big effort tonight.
Drops down in grade after finishing last at A5 last time out, and his pace pattern is inconsistent from race to race, which makes him hard to trust in a race like this. The lowest recent form rating and slowest speed figures in the field don't help his cause, and trap 6 has been the weakest draw at this course and distance. Others have much stronger claims.
Key insight: Composite top pick wins 21.86% at A6 here, well clear of the 15.62% for the second-rated dog - a real edge, and trap 5 remains the marginal best draw even at this grade.
T1:19.15% T2:17.05% T3:19.27% T4:18.72% T5:19.32% T6:14.89%
2,219 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Coppice Melbelle | 44 | 61 | Closer |
2Billys Baker | 54 | 38 | All-Rounder |
3Alnwick Aurora | 53 | 39 | All-Rounder |
4Neon Puns Gravel | 36 | 82 | Closer |
5Ekitike | 60 | 29 | Fader |
6Hazelhill Blue | 47 | 64 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 450m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coppice Melbelle | — | — | 0.623 |
| 2 | Billys Baker | — | — | 0.621 |
| 3 | Alnwick Aurora | — | — | 0.625 |
| 4 | Neon Puns Gravel | — | — | 0.625 |
| 5 | Ekitike | — | — | 0.619 |
| 6 | Hazelhill Blue | 0.607 | 0.628 | 0.624 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.