Owns both the fastest best time in the field — 15.64 — and the best winning record, three wins and five places from ten course and distance starts. On those two facts she should be the pick; the draw is why she is not. Trap five wins just 16.1% at this grade, the worst box on the track, and her last-time 16.15 was four lengths off that best, suggesting the edge needs sharpening. The Jinks kennel also runs the selection's main rival, which says something about where the stable's confidence sits. If she breaks clean from the bad box her record wins this; the stats say clean breaks from five are the exception.

Steps up from D5 off a win, and his last-time 15.61 was the fastest recent clocking in this entire field — quicker than anything the D4 regulars managed last week. His overall course record is modest, one win and two places from ten starts, and his ratings have lived in the teens and low 20s until that 31-rated breakthrough. Trap two is the second-worst box at this grade at 16.8%, and dogs improving off one good run always carry regression risk. But on pure last-race evidence he is the form horse of the race. Interesting at a price.

Two wins from ten course and distance starts show she has done it at these conditions, and her 15.78 best is within touch of the field. But her latest run was a 16-rated sixth, her last clocking of 16.29 was five lengths off her best, and her ratings have been sliding for a month. Trap four is fair at 17.9% and her February trials were tidy, so a bounce is not impossible — dogs of her type cycle in and out of form — but nothing on the current card recommends anticipating it tonight.

The back numbers — a 40 and a 57 from last winter — belong to a different dog than the one racing now: four of his last five runs have rated 21 or lower, he was last of six on his latest start a fortnight ago, and his 16.23 last clocking was the slowest recent time in the field. He does have decent early pace when right, and one win from five course and distance starts, but trap three's fair 18% draw cannot carry a dog running six lengths below his old level. The deepest reclamation project on the card.