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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hollywell Orchidb 3y 6 | S A Saberton — 24% R360 W88 P231 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 45 | 62 (2) | 77 (1) | 53 (4) | 54 (3) | 64 (2) | 52 (3) | 67 (2) | 76 (1) | 50 (5) | 25 (4) | 46 | 53 | 48 | 47 | 62 | 51 | 3 | 9/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Coolemore Azzabib 2y 27 | B P Cooper — 38% R13 W5 P10 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 42 | 55 (4) | 57 (4) | 100 (1) | 77 (1) | 66 (2) | 57 (3) | 44 (1) | 39 (1) | 62 (2) | 47 (5) | 48 | 46 | 42 | 33 | 66 | 44 | 5 | 2/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Fortunate Roseb 4y 28 | S A Saberton — 24% R360 W88 P231 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 52 | 70 (2) | 72 (1) | 57 (2) | 72 (1) | 55 (4) | 74 (1) | 65 (2) | 47 (5) | 64 (3) | 67 (2) | 55 | 47 | 20 | 60 | 65 | 50 | 2 | 4/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Savana Catapillad 2y 18 | T J Nevin — 21% R485 W100 P253 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 57 | 73 (1) | 40 (6) | 62 (3) | 45 (4) | 71 (1) | 52 (4) | 26 (1) | 29 (5) | 71 (1) | 39 (5) | 43 | 45 | 22 | 42 | 54 | 41 | 4 | 10/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Baggins Ladd 3y 18 | D R Jinks — 16% R524 W85 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 56 | 62 (3) | 29 (3) | 69 (3) | 86 (1) | 64 (2) | 29 (4) | 79 (1) | 38 (1) | 35 (1) | 43 (5) | 40 | 47 | 48 | 48 | 68 | 50 | 1 | 13/8F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hollywell Orchid | 26.61 | 27.07 | 26.81 | 53 | +0.20 | Fastest, slow break | |
| 6 | Baggins Lad | 26.68 | 27.05 | 26.87 | 51 | +0.19 | Top rating, best box | |
| 2 | Coolemore Azzabi | 26.81 | 27.05 | 26.97 | 48 | +0.16 | Crawls away | |
| 3 | Fortunate Rose | 26.86 | 27.05 | 27.22 | 49 | +0.36 | 3W 7P here | |
| 4 | Savana Catapilla | 26.86 | 27.47 | 26.96 | 42 | +0.10 | Won LT at A6 |
The race of the night — a deep A5 over Harlow's tight 415 metres, four bends where the first turn decides more races than anywhere in Britain and the draw stats from 2,061 A5 runs favour trap six (23.2%) and trap three (21.5%) with the dead trap five slot vacant. Every runner has legitimate claims: two Saberton inmates in career form, an open-class dropper with a crawling break, a last-time-out winner and the talented but maddening Baggins Lad. The pace map has two front-runners — Baggins Lad from six and Fortunate Rose from three — burning to the bend together, with Hollywell Orchid, the fastest dog in the race, and Coolemore Azzabi plotting late raids. Baggins Lad has the sharpest break, the best box and the highest rating in the field: if the good version of him loads tonight, he controls this from the first turn and the rest are racing for second.
The most talented dog in the race, in the best box, with the right running style. His performance average tops the field, his book includes an 86-rated run in open company last month and a 79 in the spring, and he owns the sharpest break and strongest early pace here — from trap six, which wins 23.2% at this grade, the best draw on the track. Third at this grade last week and his 26.68 best is within a length of the fastest. The unavoidable caveat is his volatility: two 29-rated clunkers sit in his last six starts and you get no warning which version loads. But when the ability, the box and the style all point one way at a track that rewards exactly this profile, he is the percentage side of a genuine coin flip.
The most reliable performer in the field and the biggest threat. She has finished in the first two in seven of her ten course and distance starts, winning three, and her recent ratings — 70, 72, 57, 72 — are the most consistent high-level form here, capped by a second at this grade last week. She is a genuine front-runner from trap three, which wins 21.5% at this grade, and the Saberton kennel is flying at 30%. She and the selection will go to the first bend together; if she breaks on top, her consistency against his volatility becomes the whole race. The percentage-of-showing-up pick, outgunned only on peak ability.
The fastest dog in the race — her 26.61 course and distance best leads the field by a length and her speed figures top the card — off a 62-rated second here last week with a 77 two starts back. Nine course and distance runs have brought two wins and five places for the red-hot Saberton kennel. But she is a patient runner from trap one, a box that wins just 17.9% at this grade, and with two confirmed front-runners stringing the field out she needs gaps on the fence at precisely the moment traffic is thickest. Class and clock say she can win; the geometry of this particular race says she needs things to fall apart in front.
Ran a 100-rated race in open class three starts back — the single best performance anyone in this field has ever produced — and his Cooper kennel operates at a sharp 32%. But his break figures are the worst imaginable: he concedes the first bend to the entire field by design, and at Harlow that is a brutal tax over four tight turns. One win and three places from seven course and distance starts, and his last two runs at this grade brought mid-50s ratings in fourth. The class is unarguable; the way he uses it is all wrong for this track. A flying second is the likeliest good outcome.
Won at A6 ten days ago with a 73-rated run and has mixed it in open-class company in between, so the grade holds no fears. Three wins from nine course and distance starts is a solid record, his first-bend work is among the best here, and trap four wins a healthy 20.9% at this grade. What keeps him down this card is the speed evidence: his figures are the lowest in the field and his best results come when races collapse in front of him. With two front-runners primed for a duel tonight, that collapse is a live possibility — he is the value angle if the pace war materialises.
Key insight: At A5 over 415m the fastest dog wins 23.2% and the top-rated 22.4%. Traps 3, 4 and 6 all outperform the inside boxes — mid-to-wide draws with pace are the winning profile at this grade. 2,061 runs.
T1:17.9% T2:18.1% T3:21.5% T4:20.9% T5:15.0% T6:23.2%
2,061 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 415m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Hollywell Orchid | 50 | 57 | Closer |
2Coolemore Azzabi | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Fortunate Rose | 56 | 46 | Front Runner |
4Savana Catapilla | 48 | 33 | All-Rounder |
6Baggins Lad | 57 | 50 | Front Runner |
Only runs at exactly 415m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (415m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 238m | 415m | 592m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hollywell Orchid | 0.661 | 0.652 | — |
| 2 | Coolemore Azzabi | 0.645 | 0.652 | 0.656 |
| 3 | Fortunate Rose | — | 0.652 | — |
| 4 | Savana Catapilla | 0.648 | 0.662 | — |
| 6 | Baggins Lad | 0.653 | 0.652 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.