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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Darrens Dogd 2y 5 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 38 | 19 (5) | 42 (4) | 50 (2) | 36 (5) | 57 (2) | 62 (1) | 51 (3) | 41 (4) | 53 (2) | 18 (3) | 2 | 23 | 26 | 28 | 46 | 38 | 2 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Long Ago Fadod 2y 7 | S A Saberton — 24% R360 W88 P231 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 52 | 51 (2) | 63 (1) | 52 (2) | 59 (1) | 34 (5) | 37 (4) | 44 (4) | 16 (6) | 22 (4) | 27 (6) | 57 | 32 | 32 | 43 | 49 | 44 | 4 | 11/4JF | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Mud Dogd 3y 14 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 24 (4) | 23 (4) | 31 (1) | 23 (2) | 19 (6) | 17 (6) | 19 (6) | 21 (3) | - | - | 18 | 17 | - | - | 23 | 39 | 3 | 11/4JF | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Samrose Taylorb 3y 7 | P S Rea — 17% R492 W83 P267 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 57 | 45 (3) | 45 (4) | 34 (5) | 66 (1) | 13 (5) | 37 (4) | 53 (2) | 36 (5) | 30 (5) | 42 (5) | 18 | 20 | 26 | 18 | 41 | 44 | 1 | 7/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Jimbo Juniord 4y 25 | D R Jinks — 16% R524 W85 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 49 | 42 (4) | 23 (5) | 24 (4) | 36 (5) | 55 (6) | 16 (3) | 17 (3) | 59 (2) | - | - | 11 | 18 | 37 | 13 | 38 | 37 | 6 | 10/3 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Breakaway Bellb 2y 16 | D R Jinks — 16% R524 W85 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 19 (5) | 31 (1) | 20 (4) | 23 (4) | 13 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | 5 | 17 | - | - | 22 | 37 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Samrose Taylor | 27.10 | 27.84 | 27.69 | 52 | +0.59 | Fastest + best bend | |
| 5 | Jimbo Junior | 27.33 | 27.71 | 27.83 | 49 | +0.50 | 0 wins from 8 | |
| 1 | Darrens Dog | 27.37 | 27.76 | 27.74 | 52 | +0.37 | Best box, poor LT | |
| 2 | Long Ago Fado | 27.58 | 28.06 | 27.56 | 42 | -0.02 | 30% kennel, 2nd LT | |
| 3 | Mud Dog | No form at this distance — times not comparable. | — | Never run 415m | ||||
| 6 | Breakaway Bell | No form at this distance — times not comparable. | — | Never run 415m | ||||
Four bends of Harlow's tight 415 metres to open the evening's longer-trip racing — the first bend here is the most decisive in Britain and at A7 the draw stats from 5,761 runs crown trap one (22.9%) with trap five the dud at 16%. This is a race of two halves: four proven 415-metre dogs and two complete unknowns at the trip. Mud Dog and Breakaway Bell have never raced beyond the 238-metre sprint — both have flashed speed in trials, but four bends in race traffic is a different sport. Of the proven quartet, Samrose Taylor brings the fastest clock and the sharpest first-bend work in the field, and at this track that combination is worth more than anything else on the card. Long Ago Fado has the steadiest recent form and will be grinding away late, while Darrens Dog has the golden rail box without the current form to exploit it. Taylor should control this from the bend; the question is whether his suspect finish holds off the stayer.
The speed of the race, at the track where speed into the first bend matters more than anywhere in Britain. His 27.10 course and distance best is the fastest in the field by two lengths, his first-bend work is the best here, and he arrives in form — back-to-back 45-rated runs including a third last week, with a 66-rated performance in his book from June that would demolish this field. The honest reservations: one win from ten course and distance starts, form that has swung violently in the past, and a middling box at 17.8%. But in a race where a third of the field has never attempted the trip, the dog who owns the fastest clock and the best bend at a bend-dominated track is the right side of the argument.
The most solid citizen in the race and the biggest threat to the selection. His last four runs at this grade and trip read second, then ratings of 63, 52 and 59 — the best and most consistent recent form in the field — and he has won two of his eight course and distance starts with four top-two finishes. The Saberton kennel is operating at a powerful 30% strike rate, the strongest trainer signal on the card. He is not quick early and trap two is statistically modest, so he will need to work through traffic, but he stays every yard of this trip and will be finishing hardest of all. If the selection's stride shortens late, this is the dog arriving.
Gets trap one, the best box at this grade at nearly 23%, and his book contains real quality — ratings of 57 and 62 at this trip earlier in the summer, plus four top-two finishes from eight course and distance starts. But his arrow is pointing the wrong way: a 19-rated fifth over the sprint trip last week capped a month-long slide, and he is a slow starter whose record from the rail is oddly poor. The draw stats say he should be feared; his recent form says he has drifted a long way from the dog who ran that 62. The box gives him every chance of a revival, but revivals need evidence.
Improved to a 42 when fourth at this grade last week and there are flashes of ability through his record — a 55 in June, a 59 last winter. But the ledger reads no wins and two places from eight course and distance starts, his form yo-yos run to run, and he has drawn trap five, the worst box at this grade at 16%. A patient runner from the dead draw in a race with proven pace ahead of him has too much to organise. The fast sprint trial last month hints connections are exploring options; tonight looks a holding pattern.
A total unknown at the trip — every one of his races has been over the 238-metre sprint, where his ratings have plateaued in the low 20s at D4 and D5 level. He has never completed 415 metres in competition, so there is no time to compare and no evidence he stays. His trial work in the spring was quick over the sprint course, and stepping a sprinter up in trip is a legitimate training move, but the record of one-bend dogs guessing at four bends is poor, and his sprint form gives him plenty to find with the proven dogs even if he does stay. Watch and learn.
Just five career races, all over the 238-metre sprint, with ratings between 13 and 31 — and now a first attempt at four bends against experienced 415-metre campaigners. Her trial work has shown pace in patches, including a quick spin in May, and trap six is a fair box at this grade at 20.3%. But she is doubly unproven: short on racing experience full stop, and completely untested at the trip. Even a clean run would tell us more than it wins her. The kennel will learn plenty; punters should wait to.
Key insight: Trap 1 wins 22.9% at A7 over 415m — the best box. Two of tonight's six runners have never raced beyond 238m, effectively narrowing this to a four-dog contest among the distance-proven. 5,761 runs.
T1:22.9% T2:16.7% T3:17.1% T4:17.8% T5:16.0% T6:20.3%
5,761 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 415m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Darrens Dog | 35 | 76 | Closer |
2Long Ago Fado | 50 | 27 | All-Rounder |
3Mud Dog | — | — | No data |
4Samrose Taylor | 50 | 42 | All-Rounder |
5Jimbo Junior | 51 | 58 | Closer |
6Breakaway Bell | — | — | No data |
Only runs at exactly 415m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (415m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 238m | 415m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrens Dog | 0.680 | 0.669 |
| 2 | Long Ago Fado | 0.686 | 0.676 |
| 3 | Mud Dog | 0.677 | — |
| 4 | Samrose Taylor | — | 0.672 |
| 5 | Jimbo Junior | 0.671 | 0.665 |
| 6 | Breakaway Bell | 0.682 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.