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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Kenderd 2y 17 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 79 (1) | 30 (2) | 32 (2) | 48 (5) | 28 (4) | 43 (5) | 31 (3) | 79 (1) | 74 (1) | 59 (2) | 40 | 57 | 15 | 37 | 30 | 27 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Jimmys Chewd 3y 5 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 33 (3) | 32 (3) | 34 (1) | 38 (2) | 36 (4) | 36 (4) | 42 (1) | 14 (6) | 33 (3) | 35 (3) | 37 | 23 | 19 | 20 | 34 | 28 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Signet Duded 3y 7 | D R Jinks — 16% R524 W85 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | - | 33 (2) | 33 (2) | 68 (5) | 30 (4) | 20 (5) | 38 (1) | 39 (1) | 33 (2) | 31 (3) | 40 (1) | 54 | 45 | 47 | 45 | 32 | 37 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Spade Workb 2y 16 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 29 (4) | 49 (5) | 73 (1) | 68 (1) | 54 (3) | 34 (1) | 29 (2) | 24 (4) | 22 (2) | 33 (2) | 20 | 35 | 14 | 50 | 29 | 27 | 3 | 12/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Rileys Daughterb 3y 19 | M J Rice — 18% R93 W17 P52 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 28 (4) | 67 (2) | 68 (2) | 78 (1) | 48 (5) | 78 (1) | 53 (3) | 77 (1) | 60 (2) | 78 (1) | 50 | 52 | 54 | 50 | 28 | 24 | 1 | 4/6F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Signet Dude | 15.26 | 15.56 | 15.44 | 58 | +0.18 | Fastest, dead box | |
| 5 | Spade Work | 15.44 | 15.67 | 15.68 | 49 | +0.24 | A6 class dropper | |
| 2 | Jimmys Chew | 15.45 | 15.54 | 15.65 | 52 | +0.20 | Drops from D1 | |
| 1 | Kender | 15.55 | 15.64 | 15.52 | 49 | -0.03 | Won A5 415m LT | |
| 6 | Rileys Daughter | 15.68 | 15.68 | 15.68 | 45 | 0.00 | A5 dropper, gold box |
A fascinating D3 sprint over Harlow's one-bend 238 metres, where the grade-specific draw stats are the most lopsided on the card: trap six wins a remarkable 28.4% at D3 from 1,768 runs — nearly double the dead trap three at 14.4%. That collision defines the race, because the fastest dog on the clock, Signet Dude, is stuck in that dead box, while the classiest dog in the field, Rileys Daughter — dropping in from a summer of 67-to-78-rated A5 racing over four bends — lands the golden trap six with the sharpest break in the race. This is a heat full of class droppers: Kender won an A5 over 415 metres last week, Spade Work ran 73 at A6 last month. Expect Rileys Daughter to use her break and the wide lane to lead at the bend, with Signet Dude's superior clock fighting through from the worst possible starting point.
The class and the draw meet on one card. She spent the summer running 67, 68, 78 and 78-rated races at A5 over 415 metres — form levels this D3 sprint field simply has not visited — and now she drops to the dash with the sharpest break in the race, from trap six, which wins an extraordinary 28.4% at this exact grade, the strongest draw bias anywhere at Harlow. Her style — fast early, thinning late — is made for one bend, where the fade never gets time to bite. The honest caveat is a thin sprint book: one course and distance run, no win, and a 15.68 clocking that trails the quickest here. But breeding a race from the best break, the best box and the best class usually ends one way.
On the stopwatch he wins this: a 15.26 course and distance best that leads the field by two lengths, a sharp 15.44 last week when second, the best speed figures in the race and a 68-rated run in open company last month. Three wins and six top-two finishes from ten course and distance starts complete a genuinely strong card. The problem is one number: trap three wins just 14.4% at D3 over this trip — the deadest box at any Harlow grade, from a meaningful sample. Dogs win from there at half the rate of the selection's draw. If he breaks clean and finds a lane he runs them all down; the draw stats say that first clause fails more often than not.
Down in grade from a spring campaign at D1 — two full grades above tonight's company — where he held his own with ratings in the mid-to-high 30s. His 15.45 course and distance best sits second in the field, he won one of his three starts at the trip, and his June trials were quick, including a 15.60 spin from the rail. Third at this grade last week on his second run back. Trap two is unremarkable at 17.8% and his break is more solid than spectacular, but class droppers with his profile usually figure. The each-way play if the market focuses on the top two.
Arrives off the biggest single performance in the field — a 79-rated win in an A5 over 415 metres last week — and his back form includes open-class outings. His sprint credentials are respectable too: a 15.52 clocking at the trip last time he tried it and two places from four course and distance starts. The catch is the fit: he is a patient runner switching from four bends to one, from trap one, a box that wins just 17.1% at this grade and rewards fast breakers, not finishers. The engine is the best here; the race is over before dogs like him usually get going. Fascinating to watch, hard to back.
Another class dropper — 73 and 68-rated runs at A6 and A7 within his last four starts — with a solid sprint pedigree: one win and four places from six course and distance runs and a 15.44 best that sits third in the field. Fourth at this grade last week on his return to sprinting. His break is ordinary and he has drawn trap five, which wins just 16.4% at this grade, a tough spot in a race with genuine early pace on both sides. The class keeps him relevant; the draw and the break leave him needing a messy bend to exploit. Place claims are real.
Key insight: Trap 6 wins 28.4% at D3 over 238m — the strongest trap bias at any Harlow condition — while trap 3 is the dead box at 14.4%. Tonight the best break in the race breaks from six and the fastest clock from three: the draw quirk is the whole race. 1,768 runs.
T1:17.1% T2:17.8% T3:14.4% T4:17.9% T5:16.4% T6:28.4%
1,768 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 238m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 238m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (238m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 238m | 305m | 415m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kender | 0.657 | — | 0.652 |
| 2 | Jimmys Chew | 0.653 | 0.604 | — |
| 3 | Signet Dude | 0.655 | — | — |
| 5 | Spade Work | 0.657 | — | 0.655 |
| 6 | Rileys Daughter | 0.659 | — | 0.649 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.