The pace of the race by a country mile — her break rating is the maximum the figures allow, and she won over the sprint course last week, so she is sharp. Her back form includes open-class outings and 60-plus ratings at this trip. But the record at these exact conditions is stark: five course and distance starts, no wins, no places — she leads them round two bends and gets picked off late every time, the classic sharp-breaking fader at a stamina-testing four-bend trip. Fresh off a sprint win, she will be even quicker early tonight. History says the finish line comes two lengths too late.

Quietly holds the fastest recent clocking in the field — a 26.72 when second at this grade a fortnight ago, quicker than her own official best — and she has two wins and four places from nine course and distance starts. Her 73-rated run in June shows the ceiling and her speed figures sit second in the field. Trap one wins a modest 17.4% at this grade and she is neither the quickest breaker nor the strongest finisher, which leaves her doing a bit of everything without a defining weapon. Solid each-way credentials in an open race; needs the top two to underperform for the win.

Ran an 82-rated race in open company last month — the best single performance in this field's collective book — and she gets trap six, the strongest box at this grade at 21.6%. Her recent graded form is steady in the 51-61 band with a third here last week. The fundamental problem is her break: she concedes the start to the whole field by design, and one win from nine course and distance attempts is the price she keeps paying for it. The wide draw at least gives her a clean sweep round the field late. If the pace duel up front turns into carnage she inherits; otherwise another fast-finishing third beckons.