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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Savana Rippleb 2y 15 | T J Nevin — 21% R485 W100 P253 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 46 (3) | 31 (6) | 67 (1) | 64 (1) | 48 (3) | 64 (1) | 49 (3) | 62 (1) | 16 (4) | 22 (1) | 44 | 50 | - | - | 19 | 17 | 2 | 11/8F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Rings Rubyb 4y 13 | P S Rea — 17% R492 W83 P267 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | - | 23 (3) | 29 (1) | 19 (5) | 17 (4) | 42 (5) | 56 (4) | 44 (6) | 44 (5) | 66 (3) | 62 (3) | - | 18 | 17 | 18 | 23 | 20 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Tagalong Gerd 2y 29 | D R Jinks — 16% R524 W85 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 43 (4) | 62 (1) | 21 (4) | 28 (2) | 28 (2) | 37 (5) | 42 (4) | 49 (3) | 52 (2) | 46 (4) | 21 | 35 | 41 | 42 | 25 | 16 | 3 | 7/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Portora Goldb 4y 16 | P S Rea — 17% R492 W83 P267 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 22 (4) | 49 (3) | 30 (1) | 15 (4) | 13 (5) | 52 (3) | 67 (1) | 53 (3) | 55 (3) | 61 (3) | 26 | 22 | 30 | 24 | 21 | 18 | 1 | 5/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Savana Turtleb 2y 8 | T J Nevin — 21% R485 W100 P253 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 30 (1) | 25 (2) | 24 (4) | 26 (2) | 21 (4) | 29 (1) | 23 (2) | 19 (4) | 20 (2) | 15 (4) | 20 | 34 | 41 | 44 | 25 | 27 | 6 | 7/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Maybe Laterd 4y 17 | D R Jinks — 16% R524 W85 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 23 (3) | 25 (3) | 20 (5) | 25 (3) | 18 (6) | 20 (2) | 28 (2) | 21 (4) | 17 (6) | 26 (2) | 36 | 29 | 23 | 15 | 22 | 25 | 5 | 9/4 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Maybe Later | 15.64 | 15.99 | 15.95 | 55 | +0.31 | Fastest, 0 from 10 | |
| 3 | Tagalong Ger | 15.80 | 15.97 | 15.99 | 51 | +0.19 | Drops from 415m | |
| 4 | Portora Gold | 15.89 | 16.03 | 16.07 | 49 | +0.18 | Explosive break | |
| 5 | Savana Turtle | 15.96 | 16.10 | 15.97 | 49 | +0.01 | Won last time | |
| 2 | Rings Ruby | 16.04 | 16.27 | 16.03 | 43 | -0.01 | Crawls away | |
| 1 | Savana Ripple | No form at this distance — times not comparable. | — | Never sprinted | ||||
The penultimate race — a D5 over Harlow's one-bend 238 metres, where the fastest dog wins one in four at this grade and trap six (21.9%) heads the draw stats from 6,761 runs with trap five (14.6%) the dud. The clock and the draw point the same way tonight: Maybe Later, three lengths faster than anything else here on best time, breaks from the golden wide box. His problem is chronic — ten course and distance starts without a win — and the dogs best placed to punish another flat finish are Savana Turtle, last week's winner with eight top-two finishes from ten, and Portora Gold, who owns the most explosive break in the race. The wildcard is Savana Ripple, dropping from months of far superior 415-metre form but with no sprint evidence whatsoever. Maybe Later should lead at the bend; what happens in the last fifty metres is the race.
The two strongest signals at this grade — raw speed and the wide draw — both belong to him. His 15.64 course and distance best is three lengths clear of anything else in this field, his speed figures top the race, and he breaks from trap six, which wins 21.9% at D5, the best box on the track. His latest run was a solid third in 15.95. And yet: ten course and distance starts, three places, no wins. He keeps being the fastest dog in slow finishes. At some point the arithmetic of speed plus draw forces the issue, and against a field this modest, tonight is the logical night — but a dog who has found ten ways not to win here has earned the sceptical tier.
Won this exact contest last week with his best rating of the summer and owns the most dependable record in the field — two wins and eight top-two finishes from ten course and distance starts, with ratings that never dip below the high teens. He is not quick on the clock, with a 15.96 best that trails the pick by three lengths, and he has drawn trap five, the worst box at this grade at 14.6%. But winners find ways: he beat a similar field from a similar setup seven days ago, and if the favourite's finish fails again, the most reliable closer in the race is the one collecting. The obvious danger.
The most explosive break in the race by a distance — his early-pace rating dwarfs the field — and he has won one of his two course and distance starts with a place in the other. His book is a jumble: a 49 at A7 over the longer trip last month, a 67 in the spring, trial-grade runs in the teens. He drops from D4 tonight, a grade above this, and his June trials were quick. Trap four is fair at 18.6%. If he transfers that break to race night he leads at the bend and the 21.9% box stat next door stops mattering; his form volatility is what keeps him third on this card. Live outsider.
The class dropper with no map. Her recent form — 46, 31, 67, 64 at A6 and A7 over 415 metres — is by rating the best in this race by a wide margin, and she has decent early pace. But she has never raced over 238 metres: no course and distance runs, no comparable time, nothing to say her longer-trip engine converts to a one-bend dash. Sprints reward the first fifty metres, and dogs bred on four-bend rhythm often find the race over before they hit stride. From trap one at 16.7% she also has the least forgiving draw for a learner. Ability to win easily; evidence to finish anywhere.
Another arriving from the 415-metre ranks, where he ran a 62-rated race two starts back — form well above tonight's grade. His sprint record is short but respectable: three course and distance runs, two places, and a 15.80 best that sits second in this field. Trap three is a good box at this grade at 20%. His break is ordinary and his last sprint outings came in the low-to-mid 20s for rating, so the class edge is partly theoretical. Still, second-fastest clock from the second-best box earns place respect at minimum.
Her spring form at A4 over the longer trip — ratings of 42 to 56 — is ancient history on this card: since dropping to sprints she has managed 17 to 29, and her break rating is close to the theoretical minimum. A one-bend dash for a dog who concedes the start to the entire field is a structural nonsense, and trap two at 16.2% compounds it. One win from four course and distance starts came on a better night. Third last week was creditable; more of the same is her ceiling.
Key insight: The fastest dog wins 24.9% at D5 over 238m and trap 6 wins 21.9% — tonight both signals sit on one dog, but he is 0-from-10 at these conditions. Signal stack versus finishing record. 6,761 runs.
T1:16.7% T2:16.2% T3:20.0% T4:18.6% T5:14.6% T6:21.9%
6,761 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 238m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 238m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (238m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 238m | 388m | 415m | 462m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Savana Ripple | — | — | 0.664 | — |
| 2 | Rings Ruby | 0.684 | — | — | 0.624 |
| 3 | Tagalong Ger | 0.671 | — | 0.670 | — |
| 4 | Portora Gold | 0.674 | 0.634 | 0.668 | — |
| 5 | Savana Turtle | 0.676 | — | — | — |
| 6 | Maybe Later | 0.672 | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.