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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Skeard Tomd 4y 26 | J G Hurst — 17% R267 W46 P137 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | - | 18 (5) | 17 (4) | 15 (5) | 24 (2) | 26 (2) | 20 (3) | 27 (2) | 22 (4) | 28 (1) | - | 24 | 25 | - | 31 | 21 | 21 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Hazelgrove Petrab 3y 16 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | - | 18 (5) | 24 (2) | 25 (3) | 15 (6) | 29 (1) | 20 (3) | 20 (3) | 20 (5) | 29 (4) | - | 12 | 19 | - | 24 | 22 | 19 | 6 | 4/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Crystal Twodotsb 3y 4 | I Zivkovic — 13% R588 W79 P277 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 23 (4) | 25 (3) | 21 (3) | 20 (5) | 29 (1) | 20 (4) | 21 (4) | 24 (3) | 22 (3) | 23 (3) | 22 | 14 | - | 10 | 23 | 23 | 3 | 11/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Canal View Blued 4y 15 | B Heaton — 15% R223 W34 P105 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 27 (2) | 28 (1) | 20 (5) | 23 (2) | 23 (2) | 20 (3) | 19 (4) | 21 (4) | 19 (4) | 19 (5) | 16 | 22 | - | 37 | 23 | 24 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Hazelgrove Ravenb 1y 16 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 64 | - | 53 (3) | 51 (2) | 27 (2) | 21 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 28 | - | 16 | 35 | 33 | 1 | 9/4F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Ferndale Ginb 4y 15 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 23 (3) | 20 (4) | 25 (3) | 30 (1) | 20 (5) | 25 (3) | 19 (5) | 24 (3) | 27 (2) | 27 (2) | 23 | 26 | - | 27 | 24 | 25 | 2 | 7/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skeard Tom | 16.95 | 17.27 | 17.68 | 41 | +0.73 | Off form | |
| 2 | Hazelgrove Petra | 16.99 | 17.26 | 17.69 | 40 | +0.70 | Off form | |
| 3 | Crystal Twodots | 16.98 | 17.13 | 17.12 | 51 | +0.14 | Consistent | |
| 4 | Canal View Blue | 17.09 | 17.25 | 17.11 | 48 | +0.02 | Best trap | |
| 5 | Hazelgrove Raven | 16.75 | 16.94 | 16.75 | 64 | 0.00 | Scratch mark, fastest | |
| 6 | Ferndale Gin | 16.81 | 16.98 | 17.16 | 56 | +0.35 | Second fastest |
A handicap over Kinsley's 268 metres, where the downhill run to the first bend still matters but the staggered marks mean the usual trap bias reads differently to a level break. In this small sample of handicap races here, the fastest dog on the clock has gone in nearly 29% of the time and the top-rated dog on the blended model has won over 27% — both notably stronger signals than at level grades over this trip, suggesting the marks do a reasonable job of levelling the field and letting the best dog show. Hazelgrove Raven fits that pattern perfectly: comfortably the fastest recorded time in this field and running off the scratch mark, meaning she concedes members of this field a start rather than the other way round. Ferndale Gin is the more experienced, tested alternative if the mark proves too much to give away. The rest are giving weight and pace to the front two.
Comfortably the fastest dog in this field on every recorded time — best, average and most recent — and runs off the scratch mark in this handicap, meaning she's rated the best dog here and has to concede a start to the rest rather than receive one. Only three assessable graded runs on record so it's still early days reading her form fully, and her most recent outing came over the longer 462 metres rather than this trip, so there's a slight question over whether the pace and speed carry across cleanly. But in small-sample handicap races at this course, both the fastest dog on the clock and the top-rated dog have historically been much stronger signals than at level grades, and she ticks both boxes clearly.
The second-fastest dog in this field on the clock and considerably more battle-tested than the selection, with six recent starts all at a similar level producing tidy, consistent figures — 20, 25, 30, 20, 25, 19. Fourth last time out at the level grade below today's. If the selection's inexperience or the step up in trip catches her out, this is the type with the proven pace and consistency to capitalise. A genuine each-way alternative.
Giving weight away in this handicap and the form doesn't suggest he can make up the difference — recent figures of 17, 15, 24, 26, 20, 27 are modest for this level, and he was fourth of six last time out at the level grade. Slowest recorded time of this six once his most recent run is taken into account. Trap 1 has also been the weakest box in this small handicap sample. Others look to have far more in hand.
Similar story to her kennelmate in trap 1 — giving away significant weight to the faster dogs in this field and without the recent form to suggest she can bridge it. Fifth last time out and recent figures have been in the high teens to mid-twenties, below this company. Trap 2 has been a moderate box in this small sample. Needs the run of the race to figure.
A tidy, consistent handicapper who has been racing regularly without a poor run in her recent starts — form reads 25, 21, 20, 29, 20, 21, about as reliable as it gets, if unspectacular. Third last time out. Sits mid-pack on the clock in this field. The type who'll pick up a place if the pace up front doesn't suit the faster dogs, but hard to see her beating the best of these on ability alone.
Drawn in the box that's produced the most winners in this small handicap sample, a full 25%, which gives him a structural leg-up. Form has been steady in the low-to-mid twenties with a runner-up finish last time out. Not the fastest in the field on the clock, but the trap advantage plus a workmanlike level make him worth including in the shake-up. Second string on the numbers rather than a leading claim.
Key insight: A smaller sample of handicap races at this trip, but both the top-rated dog on the blended model and the fastest dog on the clock have been unusually strong signals here — 27.3% and 28.6% respectively, well above the level-grade equivalents. Handicap marks appear to let raw ability shine through rather than being masked by draw.
T1:12.5% T2:18.4% T3:16.7% T4:25.0% T5:17.5% T6:23.7%
252 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 268m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 268m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (268m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 268m | 462m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skeard Tom | 0.644 | — |
| 2 | Hazelgrove Petra | 0.644 | — |
| 3 | Crystal Twodots | 0.640 | — |
| 4 | Canal View Blue | 0.643 | — |
| 5 | Hazelgrove Raven | 0.632 | 0.631 |
| 6 | Ferndale Gin | 0.634 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.