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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Crystal Camilab 1y 24 | T D Coote — 19% R521 W97 P280 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 52 | 48 (4) | 62 (3) | 46 (5) | 67 (1) | 49 (4) | 34 (6) | 43 (6) | 19 (5) | 26 (2) | - | - | 20 | - | 19 | 52 | 34 | 5 | 9/4F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Swift Womanb 3y 6 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 59 | 61 (2) | 44 (5) | 76 (1) | 60 (3) | 48 (5) | 75 (1) | 51 (4) | 60 (3) | 46 (4) | 63 (2) | 32 | 32 | 36 | 30 | 59 | 46 | 1 | 9/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Cotswold Miladyb 2y 18 | M N May — 23% R222 W50 P107 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 37 | 56 (3) | 47 (5) | 60 (2) | 62 (3) | 64 (3) | 60 (4) | 76 (1) | 54 (4) | 60 (3) | 71 (1) | 37 | 30 | 17 | 29 | 60 | 45 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Nellys Promiseb 3y 23 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 39 | 44 (6) | 53 (4) | 71 (1) | 31 (3) | 41 (5) | 21 (5) | 41 (6) | 45 (6) | 45 (6) | 41 (6) | 27 | 24 | 17 | 20 | 50 | 35 | 6 | 6/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Swift Qayd 3y 4 | J G Hurst — 17% R267 W46 P137 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 52 | 49 (4) | 31 (6) | 56 (3) | 63 (4) | 50 (2) | 74 (5) | 58 (1) | 58 (4) | 55 (3) | - | 29 | 31 | 15 | 19 | 59 | 45 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Swift Hooleyb 3y 27 | J Robinson — 19% R288 W54 P160 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 51 | 48 (5) | 56 (2) | 55 (3) | 76 (1) | 55 (3) | 74 (1) | 70 (1) | 65 (2) | 58 (3) | 45 (6) | 30 | 31 | 37 | 42 | 61 | 46 | 2 | 11/4 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crystal Camila | 28.41 | 29.06 | 28.75 | 46 | +0.34 | Fader, fastest early | |
| 2 | Swift Woman | 28.60 | 28.82 | 28.60 | 50 | 0.00 | All-Rounder | |
| 3 | Cotswold Milady | 28.46 | 28.73 | 28.92 | 50 | +0.46 | Closer, best trap | |
| 4 | Nellys Promise | 28.65 | 29.05 | 28.69 | 43 | +0.04 | All-Rounder | |
| 5 | Swift Qay | 28.63 | 28.74 | 28.64 | 51 | +0.01 | All-Rounder | |
| 6 | Swift Hooley | 28.49 | 28.79 | 28.70 | 51 | +0.21 | Model pick |
Kinsley's 462-metre trip still carries the effect of that downhill run into the first bend, though four bends give the field time to sort itself out and closers get more chance to recover than they would at the shorter trip. Trap 3 has been the standout box in this A5 sample, winning just over 21%, with trap 1 the weakest by some way at under 14%. The model that normally decides these races barely helps here — the top-rated dog on the blended score wins only around 18% at this course and distance, essentially the same as the second and third best, so raw ability and running style carry more weight than the ranking suggests. Swift Hooley, drawn out in trap 6, has the strongest recent form of anyone in the field and is the one the data-scoring systems agree on most. Cotswold Milady gets the plum draw in trap 3 but is a confirmed closer, which is still a live risk this close to that downhill run. Crystal Camila is fastest early from trap 1 but that's the weakest box in this sample.
The highest average performance rating in this field and the dog the site's scoring systems agree on most consistently — several of them independently land on her as the one to beat. She races in a balanced, versatile style that travels well regardless of how the race is run, which matters at a track where the blended model barely separates the field. Runner-up last time out and has been racing at a good level throughout her recent starts. Trap 6 is a solid if unspectacular draw, above the sample average.
Versatile sort who can race handy or come from off the pace as the race dictates, and she's been the most consistent runner in the field for pace shape even if her overall form has bounced around — 61, 44, 76, 60, 48, 75. Second last time out and shares the highest composite rating in the race with the selection. Trap 2 is a moderate draw here, not the best but not a liability either. A big danger to the selection if she brings her better level.
Quickest away of this field early on but she's a fader by profile, tending to lead before losing ground in the closing stages, and she's drawn in trap 1 which has been the weakest box in this sample by some distance. Form has been volatile — 62, 46, 67, 49, 34, 43 — with a place last time out but nothing to suggest she's building toward a win. A couple of the site's raw computer models fancy her price given her early speed, but the draw and the fading profile work against her over four bends.
Extremely consistent by the numbers — one of the steadiest pace profiles in the field — but she's a confirmed closer, relying on coming from off the pace, and that's still a risk this close to Kinsley's downhill run into the first bend even over the longer trip. She does have the best-performing draw in this sample working in her favour, which offsets some of that concern. Placed fifth last time but with a solid recent level. The trap helps, but the running style is a lingering doubt.
The slowest recorded time of this six and the lowest average performance rating in the field, though she is at least versatile in how she races. Form has been up and down — 53, 71, 31, 41, 21, 41 — with a big effort a few runs back but nothing recent to match it. Trainer strike rate is modest at 14%. Hard to make a strong case for her against this opposition.
Shares the fastest recorded speed rating in the field and races in a balanced, versatile style that should suit however this one unfolds. But he was well beaten last time out, sixth of six, and his trap here has been the second-weakest in this sample. Earlier form was stronger, including a big effort a few runs back, so there's ability there — just a lot to find on his most recent piece of form.
Key insight: The composite's top pick wins only 18.3% here, statistically identical to the second-best dog — one of the flattest, hardest-to-predict conditions in the dataset. Speed Rank 1 does slightly better at 19.8%, but neither figure is a strong signal. Trap 3 is the standout draw at 21.1%, trap 1 the weakest at 13.7%.
T1:13.7% T2:17.3% T3:21.1% T4:17.2% T5:15.9% T6:18.2%
2,287 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Crystal Camila | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Swift Woman | 54 | 43 | All-Rounder |
3Cotswold Milady | 36 | 81 | Closer |
4Nellys Promise | 41 | 49 | All-Rounder |
5Swift Qay | 51 | 51 | All-Rounder |
6Swift Hooley | 49 | 51 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 462m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (462m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 268m | 462m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crystal Camila | 0.635 | 0.629 | 0.615 |
| 2 | Swift Woman | 0.623 | 0.624 | — |
| 3 | Cotswold Milady | — | 0.622 | — |
| 4 | Nellys Promise | 0.630 | 0.629 | — |
| 5 | Swift Qay | 0.622 | 0.622 | — |
| 6 | Swift Hooley | — | 0.623 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.