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Arena Racing Company Summer Dash - Heat One
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Niosfearrnaboltd 4y 28 | C L Hardy — 19% R236 W45 P140 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 70 | 84 | 97 (1) | 93 (2) | 100 (1) | 58 (5) | 82 (2) | 80 (3) | 70 (4) | 63 (5) | 78 (2) | 80 (2) | 32 | 37 | 45 | 39 | 84 | 69 | 1 | 7/4F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Here Comes Bobd 2y 24 | J Watson — 32% R25 W8 P15 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 17 | 30 | 78 (2) | 67 0 | 98 (4) | 67 (1) | 68 (2) | 58 (4) | 66 (4) | 39 (4) | 59 (2) | - | 41 | - | 10 | - | 73 | 40 | 4 | 9/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Mossend Lavd 2y 35 | S Roberts — 16% R178 W29 P98 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 23 | 44 (6) | 95 (1) | 59 (5) | 67 (4) | 88 (1) | 88 (1) | 67 (4) | 52 (3) | 53 (3) | 61 (3) | 24 | 25 | - | - | 68 | 19 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Romeo Hanyud 2y 35 | T C Heilbron — 17% R234 W39 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 90 | 53 (6) | 47 (6) | 94 (6) | 64 (6) | 90 (1) | 51 (1) | 43 (1) | 90 (5) | - | - | 34 | 17 | - | - | 65 | 35 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Midas Migueld 3y 27 | J T Edgar — 17% R536 W89 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 72 | 35 (2) | 83 (2) | 40 (2) | 33 (2) | 32 (2) | 62 (3) | 85 (2) | 43 (5) | 52 (3) | 62 (4) | 30 | 34 | - | 58 | 67 | 50 | 6 | 25/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Inclement Queenb 2y 35 | R Knights — 22% R18 W4 P13 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 0 | 76 (3) | 84 (2) | 83 (2) | 96 (1) | 77 (2) | 87 (2) | 90 (2) | 88 (2) | 80 (2) | 81 (2) | 65 | - | - | - | 83 | 50 | 2 | 11/4 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niosfearrnabolt | 16.86 | 17.02 | 17.00 | 70 | +0.14 | ||
| 4 | Romeo Hanyu | No 290m form | — | No form at distance | ||||
| 6 | Inclement Queen | No 290m form | — | No form at distance | ||||
| 5 | Midas Miguel | 17.17 | 17.17 | 17.17 | 59 | 0.00 | ||
| 3 | Mossend Lav | No 290m form | — | No form at distance | ||||
| 2 | Here Comes Bob | No 290m form | — | No form at distance | ||||
This is a sprint over 290 metres at Newcastle where early pace and speed are everything — there is simply not enough ground for closers to make up lost lengths. The sample at this specific grade and distance is small at just 39 runs, but trap 1 and trap 5 share the best win rate at 28.6 per cent, while trap 3 has drawn a blank. The fastest dog in the field wins 30 per cent of races here, confirming speed as the dominant factor. Niosfearrnabolt is the clear standout — she has the fastest time, the highest speed rating by a wide margin, and devastating early pace. She should blast out of trap 1 and never be headed. The rest are scrapping for places. Here Comes Bob and Inclement Queen are switching from 435 metres and have no form at this distance, which makes them genuine unknowns. Midas Miguel knows the trip but has never won here in five attempts.
Head and shoulders above these on every measure. The fastest time in the field at 16.86, the highest speed rating by 11 points, and a performance average of 84 that towers over the opposition. Recent form reads 97, 93, 100 — three consecutive outstanding runs at open-race level. She has the sharpest early pace in the field and will blast out of trap 1, which shares the best win rate here at 28.6 per cent. Course and distance form of one win and two places from three runs confirms she handles this track and trip. Trainer Hardy runs at 22 per cent. She looks an absolute standout and would need to run well below her best to get beaten.
The only dog in the field with proven form at this course and distance — five runs at Newcastle over 290 metres, placing in all five but failing to win any of them. The 100 per cent place rate from five attempts says he always turns up, but the zero win rate says he cannot quite get his head in front. The second-best speed rating in the field at 59 confirms he has the raw pace. Last run was a disappointing 35 at D1 grade, but he was still placed second. Has been mixing grades between D1 and A3 which suggests inconsistency. Drawn in trap 5 which shares the best win rate here at 28.6 per cent. If there is to be a surprise, he is the most likely source.
Has been running at open-race level over 435 metres and now tries 290 metres for the first time — a completely different test. No course or distance form at all, and the distance suitability of zero means this is a genuine unknown. His best time of 18.02 comes from the longer trip and is not comparable to sprint times. Trainer Watson operates at 33 per cent which is the strongest in the field, suggesting this isn't a throwaway run. But with no sprint experience and no Newcastle 290 metre form, it is impossible to assess whether he has the raw speed for this trip. One to watch rather than back.
Has been running at open-race level over 435 metres and is now dropping back to 290 metres with no course or distance form. The distance suitability of zero is a major concern, but the bigger issue is running style — she tends to come from behind and that is a losing profile at a sprint distance. There simply is not enough ground for a closer to make up lengths at 290 metres. Last race was two months ago with a poor performance of 44, and the form before that was mixed. Drawn in trap 3 which has a zero win rate at this combo from a small sample. Very hard to fancy.
Has been running over 480 metres at OR1 and OR2 level and now tries 290 metres for the first time. No course or distance form, but unlike some of the others switching distance, he does have strong early pace and likes to lead from the front — that is at least the right profile for a sprint. His best bend rating of 90 is exceptional and suggests he handles tight turns well. However, the speed rating of 46 is based on times from 480 metres and cannot be compared to sprint times. Last run was a disappointing 53 at OR1. An interesting contender but unproven at this trip.
Has outstanding recent form over 435 metres at open-race level — ratings of 76, 84, 83, 96, 77 and 87 are the best figures on the card from any dog at any distance. The performance average of 83 is the joint-highest in the field. However, she is switching from 435 metres to 290 metres with no sprint form whatsoever, and crucially she tends to come from behind with very little early pace. At 290 metres, a closer with no early speed has almost no chance regardless of ability. She may have too much class for this field if she can adapt, but the running style makes her a risky proposition at this trip. One to note for longer distances rather than back today.
Key insight: Trap 1 best at 28.6% from 7 runs. Trap 3 weakest at 0.0%.
T1:28.6% T2:14.3% T3:0.0% T4:20.0% T5:28.6% T6:14.3%
39 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 290m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 290m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (290m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 245m | 261m | 264m | 280m | 290m | 305m | 400m | 435m | 450m | 480m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niosfearrnabolt | — | 0.608 | 0.591 | — | 0.587 | 0.603 | 0.612 | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | Here Comes Bob | 0.606 | 0.621 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.601 | 0.621 | — | — |
| 3 | Mossend Lav | — | — | — | 0.583 | — | — | — | 0.606 | 0.623 | 0.604 | — |
| 4 | Romeo Hanyu | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.608 | 0.611 | 0.588 |
| 5 | Midas Miguel | — | — | — | — | 0.596 | — | — | — | — | 0.614 | — |
| 6 | Inclement Queen | 0.599 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.595 | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.