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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Emers Lizzyb 2y 15 | A J Taylor — 18% R293 W52 P141 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 50 | 41 (5) | 49 (4) | 43 (5) | 35 (4) | 60 (1) | 38 (6) | 54 (2) | 40 (4) | 60 (1) | 42 (5) | 29 | 36 | - | 26 | 45 | 42 | 4 | 10/3 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Spot On Budb 4y 44 | K Dodington — 19% R113 W22 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 35 | 58 (1) | 48 (3) | 60 (3) | 51 (4) | 60 (4) | 63 (4) | 79 (1) | 79 (1) | 52 (5) | 68 (2) | 25 | 15 | - | 27 | 59 | 44 | 2 | 7/4F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Swift Francescab 4y 34 | K Dodington — 19% R113 W22 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 36 | 41 (5) | 42 (5) | 51 (3) | 58 (2) | 59 (3) | 40 (5) | 91 (2) | 74 (3) | 69 (2) | 55 (5) | 21 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 54 | 37 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Punk Rock Puffd 4y 16 | S Maplesden — 14% R251 W35 P148 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 73 | 45 (4) | 61 (1) | 45 (4) | 57 (1) | 32 (6) | 49 (2) | 46 (2) | 46 (2) | 33 (5) | 50 (2) | 36 | 26 | 21 | 48 | 49 | 46 | 3 | 8/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Courty Ashd 3y 111 | M J Richards — 14% R163 W23 P86 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 70 | 61 (1) | 49 (4) | 54 (3) | 49 (4) | 67 (1) | 46 (4) | 41 (5) | 52 (3) | 52 (4) | 64 (2) | 27 | 19 | 31 | 31 | 54 | 43 | 1 | 15/8 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emers Lizzy | 30.05 | 30.35 | 30.55 | 49 | +0.50 | Steady A6 form | |
| 2 | Spot On Bud | 29.88 | 30.10 | 30.02 | 58 | +0.14 | Fastest in field | |
| 3 | Swift Francesca | 30.20 | 30.55 | 30.60 | 44 | +0.40 | Slowest in field | |
| 4 | Punk Rock Puff | 30.02 | 30.28 | 30.05 | 46 | +0.03 | Best C&D record | |
| 6 | Courty Ash | 29.95 | 30.20 | 30.10 | 53 | +0.15 | Model consensus pick |
Hove's 500-metre trip is a bumpy, physical test where trap one usually leads the track-wide bias table, but in this specific A6 grade it's trap three that dominates at 24.3% from 309 runs, with trap six the weakest draw at just 15.2%. Five go to post rather than six tonight. This is a genuine middle-grade puzzle for the ratings - the composite's top-rated dog wins only about one in five at this exact level, well down on the model's usual hit rate, which means the raw speed figures deserve more weight than the composite score here. Spot On Bud is the fastest in the field by a clear margin despite a modest trap two draw, while Punk Rock Puff carries the best overall rating and the strongest course and distance record but is only the fourth-quickest on the clock. Courty Ash, stepping up after a battling win last time, is the model consensus pick and looks the biggest threat if the extra pace from trap two doesn't carry through cleanly.
Recent form in graded company throughout, no trial contamination - form reads 58, 48, 60, 51, 60, 63, with a win last time out at A8 and nothing below 48 across the last six, a genuinely consistent line. Comfortably the fastest dog in this field on the clock, which matters here because the ratings are unreliable at this exact grade - the top-rated dog only wins about one in five at A6, while the fastest dog wins closer to one in four. Stepping up two grades on the back of that win, and her career-best form came at A2, well above anything shown by these rivals, hinting at a touch more in the tank if she takes to the step up. Trap two hasn't been a stand-out draw at this grade, so this is about pace over position.
Form of 61, 49, 54, 49, 67, 46 in graded company, topped off by a win last time out at A7 - stepping up to A6 on the back of that. A peak of 67 four runs back shows the ceiling is there even though the recent numbers have been more modest. Second-fastest in the field on the clock and the pick of the rating models and the machine-learning probability score, which both land on her ahead of the field. The concern is the draw - trap six has been the weakest box in this exact grade at just over 15%, the worst of the six boxes tonight - and her trainer's strike rate in these conditions is modest. If she can overcome the outside draw, the model consensus behind her carries real weight.
Form of 61, 45, 57, 32, 49, 46 in graded company, including a win last time out at A7, now stepping up to A6. Carries the best overall rating in the race and by some distance the best course and distance record - three wins and seven places from her last ten runs at Hove over the trip, a genuinely strong angle that shouldn't be ignored. The catch is the pace figures - only the fourth-quickest in the field on the clock, meaning the rating may be flattering her relative to what she's shown on raw speed, and this is exactly the kind of grade where the composite has been letting punters down. Trap four is a moderate draw. Each-way interest given the sheer weight of course and distance form.
Form of 41, 49, 43, 35, 60, 38 in graded A6 company, workmanlike and inconsistent rather than in decline - the 60 five runs back shows she can find a level well above what she's shown lately. A versatile all-rounder who can race handy or come from off the pace, with a fair course and distance record of two wins and three places from ten runs at Hove over the trip. Not among the fastest in this field on the clock and her trainer's 22% strike rate is the best of the runners but nothing special. Trap one has been a reasonable if unspectacular draw at this grade. More of a place threat than a winning one on the pace figures shown.
Form of 41, 42, 51, 58, 59, 40 in graded A6 company, up and down without a clear direction - the 58 and 59 three and four runs back show she has been competitive at this level before, even if the last two starts have been modest. Slowest in the field on the clock and hasn't managed a win or more than a single place from six runs at this course and distance, the weakest structural case in the race. Trap three has actually been the best draw at this exact grade, winning better than one in four, which is the one thing keeping her involved. A big grade drop shows on her record from way back, but there's little in her recent running to suggest she can trouble the pace-setters tonight.
Key insight: This is a weak grade for the composite - the top-rated dog wins only about one in five here, well below the track average, while the fastest dog in the field wins nearer one in four. Speed matters more than the rating in this specific slice.
Trap 3 24.3%, Trap 1 20.4%, Trap 4 18.1%, Trap 5 16.2%, Trap 2 16.0%, Trap 6 15.2%
1,686 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Emers Lizzy | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Spot On Bud | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Swift Francesca | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Punk Rock Puff | 64 | 0 | Fader |
6Courty Ash | 67 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 450m | 460m | 500m | 645m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emers Lizzy | — | — | 0.611 | — |
| 2 | Spot On Bud | 0.613 | — | 0.606 | — |
| 3 | Swift Francesca | 0.606 | 0.627 | 0.610 | 0.650 |
| 4 | Punk Rock Puff | — | — | 0.613 | — |
| 6 | Courty Ash | — | — | 0.607 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.