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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Punk Rock Willowb 4y 17 | S Maplesden — 14% R251 W35 P148 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 55 | 40 (2) | 43 (2) | 31 (5) | 40 (5) | 42 (2) | 43 (2) | 34 (1) | 34 (2) | 25 (2) | - | 42 | 37 | 31 | 41 | 38 | 45 | 1 | 5/4F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Sladeys Knightd 3y 16 | S Maplesden — 14% R251 W35 P148 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 34 | 29 (5) | 44 (1) | 32 (2) | 24 (5) | 28 (5) | 27 (4) | 33 (2) | 35 (3) | 27 (5) | 42 (1) | 31 | 11 | 5 | 31 | 33 | 33 | 5 | 16/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Roanna Lilyb 3y 7 | B S Green — 21% R422 W89 P249 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 50 | 32 (5) | 48 (1) | 40 (3) | 32 (5) | 33 (5) | 49 (1) | 36 (3) | 31 (3) | 24 (5) | 32 (4) | 22 | 29 | 37 | 27 | 37 | 41 | 4 | 10/3 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Southdowns Roseb 4y 14 | C Gardiner — 19% R341 W66 P178 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 42 | 32 (4) | 35 (2) | 40 (3) | 35 (5) | 42 (2) | 47 (1) | 40 (2) | 28 (6) | 29 (6) | 36 (4) | 31 | 24 | 35 | 31 | 36 | 40 | 3 | 6/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Sharp Surprised 2y 18 | J J Heath — 21% R347 W72 P213 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 53 | 36 (3) | 43 (2) | 35 (4) | 39 (2) | 47 (2) | 51 (1) | 39 (4) | 40 (3) | 49 (2) | 45 (3) | 27 | 32 | 26 | 30 | 41 | 42 | 2 | 7/4 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punk Rock Willow | 30.15 | 30.45 | 30.30 | 52 | +0.15 | Best C&D, weak trap | |
| 2 | Sladeys Knight | 30.45 | 30.75 | 30.35 | 42 | -0.10 | Worst draw here | |
| 3 | Roanna Lily | 30.25 | 30.55 | 30.45 | 48 | +0.20 | Fair draw | |
| 5 | Southdowns Rose | 30.10 | 30.40 | 30.35 | 51 | +0.25 | Second-best trap | |
| 6 | Sharp Surprise | 30.05 | 30.35 | 30.20 | 53 | +0.15 | Best trap, fastest |
Hove's 500-metre trip usually rewards trap one on the track-wide numbers, but this A10 grade flips that on its head completely - trap six is by far the best draw here at 30.6% from 85 runs, with trap five close behind at 29.5%, while trap two is a near-death trap at just 10.9%. Only five go to post. This is low-grade racing where the ratings are tightly bunched and none of the runners are pulling away on raw ability, so the draw carries extra weight. Sharp Surprise gets the best box in the race and is also the fastest on the clock, a genuine combination in a grade like this. Punk Rock Willow carries the highest composite score and by far the best course and distance record, seven places from ten runs, but comes from a much weaker draw and will need her placing consistency to carry her through traffic from trap one.
Consistent A10 form of 36, 43, 35, 39, 47, 51 with a placed run last time out at the grade above and nothing wildly out of line, no trial contamination in the mix. Fastest in the field on the clock, which is the more reliable guide at this grade where the ratings are tightly bunched and don't separate the field clearly. Drawn in trap six, comfortably the best-performing box at this exact grade, winning better than three in ten. Course and distance form is solid too, with a win and five places from ten runs at Hove over the trip. At a grade this competitive, the combination of the best draw and the fastest clocking is the strongest case on offer, even if nothing here is a certainty.
Remarkably consistent A10 form - 40, 43, 31, 40, 42, 43 - nothing far from the low 40s across the last six, no trial contamination anywhere. Carries the highest composite score in the field and the machine-learning probability model rates her the clear most likely winner. Her course and distance record is outstanding for this level - a win and seven places from ten runs at Hove over the trip, a 70% place rate that's the best in the race. The catch is the draw - trap one has been a below-average box at this exact grade, sitting under 18% against trap six's 30.6% - which is the main obstacle between her and adding to that placing record with an actual win.
Form of 32, 35, 40, 35, 42, 47 in graded A10 company, a gentle downward drift from a stronger level a few runs back rather than a collapse - the 47 five runs ago shows there's a bit more in the tank than recent scores suggest. Course and distance form is modest at one win and four places from ten runs at Hove over the trip. Drawn in trap five, the second-best box at this exact grade at close to 30%, a genuine structural plus. Her trainer's 24% strike rate is one of the better figures in the race. The draw keeps her involved even without a standout figure on the clock.
Form of 32, 48, 40, 32, 33, 49 in graded company, up and down without a clear direction - the 48 and 49 among the six show she's capable of more than her last-time-out effort suggested. Course and distance form is fair at two wins and two places from ten runs at Hove over the trip. Slowest last-time-out clocking of the main contenders, and trap three has been a reasonable if not standout draw at this grade. Trainer B S Green's 26% strike rate is the best in the field, a point worth noting even at this level. A workmanlike sort who could pick up minor money without troubling the top two.
Won last time out at A11, a grade below this level, and now steps up to A10 off the back of it - form of 44, 32, 24, 28, 27, 33 is modest company-wide but shows a clear upward trend into that win. Lowest composite score and slowest recorded speed figure of the five, the weakest overall profile in the race on raw numbers. Course and distance form is fair at two wins and four places from ten runs at Hove over the trip. Trap two has been comfortably the weakest draw at this exact grade, sitting at just 10.9% - the worst combination of pace and position in the field. The improving trend into the recent win is the one point of interest.
Key insight: A lower grade where the composite recovers a little compared to the A7-A8 danger zone, but the draw is doing more work here than the rating - trap six and trap five combine for well over half the wins between them.
Trap 6 30.6%, Trap 5 29.5%, Trap 3 25.3%, Trap 1 17.4%, Trap 4 12.6%, Trap 2 10.9%
519 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Punk Rock Willow | 51 | 27 | All-Rounder |
2Sladeys Knight | 34 | 92 | Closer |
3Roanna Lily | 51 | 28 | All-Rounder |
5Southdowns Rose | 46 | 62 | Closer |
6Sharp Surprise | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.