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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Spot On Tpolb 4y 53 | K Dodington — 16% R121 W19 P61 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 47 | 47 (2) | 44 (2) | 41 (4) | 54 (4) | 45 (4) | 55 (4) | 62 (3) | 78 (1) | 73 (3) | 83 (2) | 45 | 40 | 43 | 40 | 61 | 54 | 1 | 9/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Savana Rusticd 4y 33 | B G Backhurst — 17% R223 W37 P122 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 49 | 76 (4) | 72 (3) | 49 (1) | 54 (4) | 56 (3) | 45 (3) | 28 (5) | 24 (2) | 66 (5) | - | 28 | 38 | 31 | 24 | 57 | 48 | 5 | 4/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Scrahan Cruiserd 2yN/R 12 | T J Nevin — 17% R443 W77 P216 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 42 | 40 (5) | 66 (5) | 40 (1) | 28 (5) | 15 (6) | 12 (3) | 17 (5) | 17 (2) | 77 (2) | - | 26 | 28 | 19 | 23 | 55 | 45 | - | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Marjories Boyd 2y 6 | B G Backhurst — 17% R223 W37 P122 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 51 | 76 (6) | 56 (1) | 59 (2) | 56 (3) | 59 (3) | 72 (2) | 56 (1) | 49 (3) | 47 (4) | - | 35 | 45 | 14 | 41 | 59 | 52 | 4 | 11/10F | |
| 5 | ▶ Boston Boundd 3y 25 | D O Pearce — 21% R143 W30 P86 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 58 | 74 (2) | 97 (1) | 46 (6) | 64 (4) | 41 (6) | 95 (1) | 81 (1) | 60 (3) | 57 (3) | 77 (1) | 37 | 51 | 23 | 21 | 70 | 58 | 2 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Savana Grandadd 2y 34 | T J Nevin — 17% R443 W77 P216 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 54 | 50 (3) | 22 (5) | 18 (3) | 43 (5) | 30 (2) | 15 (4) | 22 (1) | 14 (4) | 13 (4) | 61 (4) | 39 | 56 | 42 | 39 | 65 | 58 | 3 | 11/2 | |
Spot On Tpol sits in the DOMINANT T1 at 27.22% from 180 runs — the strongest trap signal in the entire Oxford A4 dataset. She's a confirmed Fader (EP 100, CS 0) with the best suitability profile in the race (trap 45, track 40, distance 40, class 43, mean 42.0). Form is improving strongly: P54,45,55,62,79,73 — the last two runs at 79 and 73 represent a clear step up. Speed 55 is best in the field. Trained by Dodington at 20%. The concern: EP 100, CS 0 means she leads with everything and has nothing left. At 450m with two other Faders for company (T3 and T4), the early pace will be brutal. But T1's 27.22% dominance is real and her recent form (79, 73) shows she can sustain better than the pure Fader label suggests — those are winning performances, not front-running collapses. The combination of massively dominant trap + best speed + best suitability + improving form makes her the pick despite the Fader tag.
DANGER: The class standout with the perfect closing profile for this race shape. Three Faders will ensure the pace burns out and Boston Bound will be closing hardest. Pearce knows this — the placement is deliberate. If he fires, nothing else can live with him.
Right profile (Closer) for this race shape but wrong ability level. The P77 and P72 were likely at lower grades. Current A4 form around P50 isn't enough to beat the better closers in the field.
Dominant trap but the underlying metrics don't support it. Speed and bend are too low for a front-runner to dominate, and the P85 looks like a one-off. Will be in the mix early but likely to weaken and get caught.
Structural headwind, pace profile liability, and moderate ability. Adds to the early pace that benefits the closers but won't be there at the finish.
Strong closing candidate in a race tailor-made for closers, but behind Boston Bound on ability, trainer, and trap position. Will place if the pace collapses but T6's structural weakness limits the ceiling.
LOW SEPARATION (3.5pp). T1 massively dominant at 27.22% from 180 runs — strongest single-trap signal. But this race has THREE Faders in T1/T3/T4 and THREE Closers in T2/T5/T6. Pace dynamics override normal trap analysis. The early pace will be suicidally fast.
T1:27.22%(180) T2:20.81%(197) T3:24.03%(258) T4:15.91%(264) T5:18.29%(175) T6:16.26%(123)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Spot On Tpol | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Savana Rustic | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Scrahan Cruiser | 100 | 0 | Fader |
4Marjories Boy | 100 | 0 | Fader |
5Boston Bound | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Savana Grandad | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.