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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Pearls Oscard 4y 24 | S R Pilgrim — 12% R59 W7 P19 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 60 | 15 (5) | 7 (6) | 67 (6) | 51 (1) | 52 (3) | 59 (3) | 49 (3) | 65 (3) | 67 (1) | - | 39 | 36 | 29 | 35 | 56 | 49 | 3 | 11/10F | |
| 2 | ▶ Sussex Cosmosb 2y 26 | B G Backhurst — 17% R223 W37 P122 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 38 | 33 (5) | 37 (4) | 53 (4) | 49 (2) | 40 (5) | 79 (3) | 57 (4) | 75 (2) | 65 (2) | 64 (3) | 38 | 34 | 28 | 31 | 55 | 48 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Savana Catapillad 2y 23 | T J Nevin — 17% R443 W77 P216 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 51 | 26 (1) | 29 (5) | 71 (1) | 39 (5) | 23 (1) | 22 (1) | 21 (1) | 10 (6) | 61 (1) | 61 (1) | 50 | 38 | - | 40 | 38 | 40 | 6 | 9/4 | |
| 4 | ▶ Ima Rocket Franb 2y 15 | B G Backhurst — 17% R223 W37 P122 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 45 | 27 (4) | 21 (5) | 54 (2) | 50 (2) | 63 (3) | 32 (6) | 38 (5) | 46 (4) | 74 (1) | 61 (2) | 25 | 41 | 31 | 36 | 52 | 46 | 5 | 3/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Alohas Rascald 2y 36 | T J Nevin — 17% R443 W77 P216 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 58 | 32 (4) | 11 (6) | 11 (6) | 8 (6) | 34 (4) | 51 (4) | 43 (3) | 46 (3) | 60 (1) | 60 (1) | 38 | 39 | 45 | 39 | 51 | 47 | 1 | 7/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Toems Sadieb 4y 24 | D O Pearce — 21% R143 W30 P86 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 48 | 25 (3) | 46 (5) | 32 (2) | 58 (5) | 58 (2) | 49 (2) | 37 (3) | 68 (5) | 58 (1) | - | 43 | 49 | 20 | 49 | 51 | 50 | 2 | 7/1 | |
Alohas Rascal presents the best convergence of factors in this race. T5 is DOMINANT at 21.18% from 170 runs. Form is strong and improving: P51,44,46,61,60,50 — the recent trajectory of 46→61→60 shows a dog finding form, with two consecutive wins (P61, P60) in recent starts. Fader profile (EP 57, CS 40) at 450m is a manageable concern — CS 40 is not a pure fade, and the EP (57) and bend (58) mean he'll be prominent early. The best class suitability in the field (45) confirms he's comfortable at this grade. Trained by Nevin at 16% is modest, but the structural + form convergence overrides the trainer discount. Suitability mean of 40.2 is joint-best. This is the dog where the condition data, the form book, and the suitability all point the same way.
DANGER: Pearce at 32% is the best trainer signal in the race, and T6's structural advantage from 90 runs supports the draw. Closer who'll be finishing strongly. If Alohas Rascal fades, Toems Sadie is the one to pick up the pieces.
Improving form (52→52→59→49→65→67) but Fader in a dead trap is a double negative. The improving trajectory deserves respect but the data says T1 dogs lose more often than they should here.
Best rated dog in the dominant trap but zero early pace means she's at the mercy of others. The P80 ceiling is tantalising but the P38-41 floor is a regular occurrence.
Structural heaven, ability-wise the weakest link. T3's 26.82% is the strongest signal in the race but the dog has collapsed since an opening P61 win. Speculative each-way proposition at best.
Dead trap with declining form. The Closer profile means she'll be running on but from the wrong position. Hard to see a path to victory from T4 at these conditions.
LOW SEPARATION (4.1pp). Four dominant traps (T2,T3,T5,T6) and two dead traps (T1,T4). T3 is the strongest at 26.82% from 179 runs. Ratings offer limited separation but T1 and T4 face genuine structural headwinds.
T1:14.79%(142) T2:23.9%(159) T3:26.82%(179) T4:15.31%(209) T5:21.18%(170) T6:23.33%(90)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Pearls Oscar | 63 | 25 | Fader |
2Sussex Cosmos | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Savana Catapilla | 50 | 24 | All-Rounder |
4Ima Rocket Fran | 46 | 70 | Closer |
5Alohas Rascal | 57 | 40 | Fader |
6Toems Sadie | 50 | 60 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.