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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Selker Bay Emilyb 4y 24 | K Dodington — 16% R121 W19 P61 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 44 | 17 (6) | 24 (4) | 29 (2) | 69 (4) | 23 (5) | 28 (5) | 31 (1) | 24 (4) | 25 (4) | 27 (4) | 38 | 31 | 25 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 5 | 3/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Yo Savanab 2y 14 | T J Nevin — 17% R443 W77 P216 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 31 (1) | 16 (6) | 27 (2) | 26 (2) | 20 (4) | 22 (3) | 16 (5) | 12 (6) | 18 (3) | 29 (1) | 45 | 52 | - | 56 | 29 | 37 | 4 | 8/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Mohican Bend 4y 42 | S R Pilgrim — 12% R59 W7 P19 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 15 | 48 | 25 (5) | 9 (6) | 11 (5) | 8 (5) | 25 (5) | 48 (1) | 40 (3) | 31 (4) | 15 (5) | 37 (1) | 42 | 32 | 11 | - | 41 | 40 | 3 | 7/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Savana Dakotab 4y 24 | T J Nevin — 17% R443 W77 P216 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 24 (4) | 18 (6) | 24 (4) | 22 (5) | 24 (5) | 35 (1) | 19 (5) | 28 (4) | 36 (1) | 20 (6) | 34 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 24 | 27 | 6 | 3/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Antigua Heatd 3y 17 | D O Pearce — 21% R143 W30 P86 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 51 | 31 (1) | 21 (3) | 21 (5) | 22 (5) | 27 (6) | 28 (2) | 22 (2) | 27 (4) | 35 (3) | - | 18 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 24 | 24 | 2 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Footfield Stitchd 4y 36 | B G Backhurst — 17% R223 W37 P122 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 55 | 26 (6) | 27 (4) | 29 (5) | 27 (3) | 32 (3) | 42 (4) | 27 (3) | 38 (5) | 42 (3) | - | 28 | 23 | 22 | 28 | 33 | 31 | 1 | 2/1F | |
Footfield Stitch presents the best convergence of sprint-relevant metrics in this race. T6 is DOMINANT at 21.23% from 179 runs. Best speed in the field (55, tied with T1). Best bend rating (55). Best early pace (57). Fader profile at 253m is not a concern — the trip is too short for the fade to kick in. Exceptional pace consistency (93) means he delivers this pace repeatedly, not just occasionally. Form reads 3,3,4,3,5,3 (P29,27,32,42,28,38) — relentlessly consistent mid-range performer who rarely wins but always places. The P42 and P38 show he can operate above his average. AvgP 34.3 is second-best behind Mohican Ben (whose speed issues disqualify him). Trained by Backhurst at 10% (weak) is the one negative. With NORMAL SEPARATION (6.8pp), the combination of best sprint metrics + dominant trap + second-best AvgP is the strongest analytical case.
Strongest structural case: dominant trap + Pearce. But the dog is running flat P21-28 performances with no improvement. The trap will keep her competitive but the ability gap is real.
Can be opposed at this distance. Closer at 253m has no mechanism to win — the race is decided before her closing speed engages. The P69 was almost certainly at a longer distance or a pace-collapse scenario.
Limited form dog with genuine CD suitability and a trainer who thrives at these exact conditions. The structural trap weakness is a concern but Nevin's condition-specific 30.77% is hard to ignore.
Best dog on ratings but the sprint distance exposes a fundamental weakness. Speed 15 at 253m means he's already beaten before the first bend. Won last time (P37) but has P11 and P16 in recent form — the sprint is killing him.
Mid-pack D3 sprinter with one win in six. T4's decent structural position keeps him in the mix but there's no standout factor to elevate him above the better candidates.
NORMAL SEPARATION: R1 23.33% vs R3 16.57% = 6.8pp. Ratings have predictive value. Outside traps (T5, T6) dominate this sprint. Speed rank 1 wins 22.87% — sprint pace matters. Trainer Nevin 30.77% from 26 runs is the standout trainer signal.
T1:17.22%(151) T2:17.39%(207) T3:18.22%(214) T4:20%(175) T5:23.08%(156) T6:21.23%(179)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 253m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.