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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Eden Rebeld 4y 26 | D T Yeates — 17% R48 W8 P26 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 54 | 75 (1) | 63 (2) | 53 (4) | 64 (2) | 70 (2) | 81 (2) | 68 (2) | 36 (4) | 65 (4) | 85 (2) | 46 | 37 | 56 | 41 | 66 | 57 | 1 | 11/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Ballyborna Lassb 2y 35 | C D Hamblin — 24% R63 W15 P43 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 60 | 56 (2) | 29 (2) | 30 (5) | 34 (3) | 29 (4) | 68 (4) | 75 (3) | 56 (1) | 50 (3) | - | 68 | 39 | 34 | 41 | 65 | 60 | 2 | 7/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Santas Ferrarid 2y 25 | D O Pearce — 21% R143 W30 P86 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 42 | 58 (4) | 52 (4) | 60 (4) | 77 (1) | 42 (5) | 50 (4) | 51 (4) | 84 (1) | 76 (1) | 17 (5) | 31 | 28 | 22 | 28 | 59 | 49 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Mr Fraserd 2y 14 | R L Hill — 18% R60 W11 P29 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 42 | 57 (4) | 86 (3) | 88 (1) | 59 (2) | 75 (1) | 46 (5) | 42 (5) | 38 (1) | 26 (2) | 30 (3) | 20 | 57 | 18 | 28 | 48 | 43 | 5 | 11/4 | |
| 5 | ▶ Distant Dollyb 2y 49 | C D Hamblin — 24% R63 W15 P43 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 50 | 30 (6) | 68 (5) | 73 (5) | 83 (2) | 70 (2) | 62 (6) | 89 (2) | 89 (1) | 73 (3) | 68 (5) | 44 | 57 | 40 | 44 | 75 | 66 | 3 | 11/8F | |
Eden Rebel has the strongest convergence of factors in this race. T1 is DOMINANT at 22.69% from 260 runs. He's a Front Runner (EP 56, CS 46, PC 98) — not a Fader who'll collapse, but a genuine pace-setter who sustains. That PC 98 is extraordinary: this dog delivers the same level of performance almost every single time. Form reads 1,2,4,2,2,2 (P76,63,53,65,70,81) — the trajectory of the last four is 53→65→70→81, a sustained improvement that suggests he's peaking now. AvgP 66.4 with NORMAL SEPARATION (R1 wins 21.66%) places him as a genuine composite contender. Suitability mean of 45.0 is joint-best with class suit 56 (the highest, confirming he belongs at A3). Trainer Yeates at 18% is modest but the dog's consistency makes the trainer less relevant. The combination of dominant trap + Front Runner profile + PC 98 consistency + improving form peaking at P81 is the strongest case in the race.
DANGER: Dominant trap with the individual suitability (68!) to match. When she turns up she's a 76-79 performer who can win from the front. When she doesn't, she's a 17. The value is there if you can tolerate the volatility.
Pearce is always worth respecting but T3's structural weakness (16.61%) and the dog's low suitability suggest this isn't the right spot. The All-Rounder profile is flexible but there's not enough going right structurally.
Hard to make a case at all. Five consecutive declining performances ending at P26 — this dog is dropping grade-by-grade and A3 is well beyond current ability. Can be confidently opposed.
The best dog in the race on raw ability — P75.1 average with a P90 peak is operating at A1/A2 level. But the positions tell the story: pure Closer who consistently runs the best race sectionals but can't convert. Needs the pace to completely collapse from behind.
NORMAL SEPARATION: R1 21.66% vs R3 15.86% = 5.8pp gap. Ratings matter. T1 and T2 are the dominant traps from the large 1,489-run sample. Trainer Backhurst 31.25% from 16 runs at these conditions — a strong signal.
T1:22.69%(260) T2:21.07%(261) T3:16.61%(277) T4:18.28%(268) T5:20.08%(249) T6:15.52%(174)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Eden Rebel | 56 | 46 | Front Runner |
2Ballyborna Lass | 60 | 30 | Fader |
3Santas Ferrari | 49 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Mr Fraser | 50 | 61 | Closer |
5Distant Dolly | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.