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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Longacres Delboyd 2y 6 | P J Doocey — 21% R140 W29 P76 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 68 (4) | 100 (1) | 46 (1) | 43 (1) | 37 (3) | 73 (4) | 37 (1) | 25 (5) | 30 (4) | 29 (4) | 60 | 81 | 25 | 70 | 43 | 53 | 1 | 9/4F | |
| 2 | ▶ Hollywell Cookieb 3y 44 | M Shaw — 6% R31 W2 P14 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 53 (4) | 49 (5) | 50 (5) | 25 (6) | 31 (5) | 61 (3) | 74 (2) | 63 (4) | 58 (4) | 36 (3) | 45 | 52 | 28 | 36 | 49 | 47 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Suave Scarletb 2y 15 | P A Curtin — 17% R300 W51 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 30 (4) | 27 (6) | 30 (4) | 42 (5) | 32 (1) | 37 (3) | 29 (1) | 36 (3) | 30 (1) | - | 47 | 59 | - | 63 | 29 | 39 | 6 | 7/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Aero Walshd 3y 3 | R Taberner — 20% R730 W143 P424 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 27 (6) | 37 (2) | 30 (5) | 40 (1) | 28 (5) | 29 (5) | 38 (1) | 20 (6) | 29 (4) | 35 (4) | 50 | 32 | 20 | 39 | 33 | 36 | 4 | 9/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Droopys Nibbleb 1y 27 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R614 W115 P345 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | - | 43 (4) | 57 (2) | 48 (3) | 37 (6) | 24 (5) | 21 (6) | 50 (3) | 50 (4) | 48 (4) | - | 7 | 40 | - | 50 | 49 | 43 | 2 | 7/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Swoop Swoopd 3y 13 | C D Marston — 15% R464 W69 P213 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 62 (5) | 28 (4) | 21 (5) | 85 (2) | 33 (2) | 39 (4) | 34 (6) | 50 (2) | 86 (2) | 48 (4) | 32 | 41 | - | 43 | 38 | 38 | 5 | 5/1 | |
The perfect storm for a 264m sprint: EP 100 (the maximum possible early pace rating) from the DOMINANT T1 position (21.7% from 115 runs). At this sprint distance, a Fader profile is irrelevant — the trip is too short for any fade to materialise. Longacres Delboy has the field's best composite (53) and far-and-away the best suitability — track 81, distance 70, trap 60, mean 59. That suitability mean of 59 is nearly 20 points clear of anyone else. His form includes a P72 at Doncaster 275m (sprint form, albeit 4th) and back-to-back Monmore sprint wins (P24 at 264m, P24 at 210m) from the rail. The P41 win at 264m from rails with 'AlwaysLed' confirms the profile. Trainer Doocey at 30% is strong — a real trainer edge. The only concern is the P72 Doncaster effort where he finished 4th despite running on, suggesting D2 sprint competition may have been a step up. But at Monmore where he's clearly proven (track suit 81), this is a strong pick.
Primary danger from second dominant trap. Mixed sprint form is the concern but the structural advantage and All-Rounder profile give her a realistic chance if Longacres Delboy encounters any early trouble.
The field's best speed rating at 59 but completely wrong pace profile for a 264m sprint. A Closer simply can't recover at this distance. Would need a catastrophe ahead of her to feature — can be confidently opposed.
Proven sprint winner with improving form but faces a T3 structural headwind (14.8%) and a step up in class to D2. The sprint aptitude is real but the draw works against her.
Has shown sprint-winning ability from wide but inconsistent and missed break tendency makes her unreliable at 264m. Mid-pack chance at best.
Capable sprinter with proven early pace and good speed, but the dead T4 draw (8.9%) is a crushing structural headwind. Would need to be significantly the best dog in the field to overcome it, and he's not.
NORMAL SEPARATION (6.6pp) — composite ranking has predictive value at D2 264m. T4 is near-dead at just 8.9% from 90 runs. T1 and T2 dominate the inside traps. Thompson (28.6% from 28 runs) is the standout trainer. Speed rank 1 at 18.6% is a weaker signal than composite rank 1 at 19.0%.
T1:21.7% T2:20.5% T3:14.8% T4:8.9% T5:18.8% T6:17.6%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 264m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.