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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Moorstown Braed 3y 12 | C S Fereday — 19% R462 W86 P232 Trainer form — last 3 months | 46 | 50 | 37 (6) | 34 (4) | 39 (5) | 51 (4) | 53 (3) | 46 (6) | 73 (1) | 53 (3) | 26 (5) | - | 46 | 38 | 29 | 38 | 54 | 49 | 3 | 9/1 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Vixons Opaqueb 2y 8 | J B Thompson — 18% R505 W92 P276 Trainer form — last 3 months | 48 | 58 | 54 (3) | 50 (3) | 39 (5) | 41 (5) | 51 (2) | 37 (6) | 56 (3) | 54 (4) | 37 (6) | 73 (1) | 56 | 62 | 18 | 54 | 57 | 57 | 1 | 5/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Rinn Soileirb 3y 27 | J M Walton — 21% R238 W50 P127 Trainer form — last 3 months | 54 | 48 | 46 (6) | 100 (1) | 85 (3) | 75 (4) | 98 (1) | 99 (1) | 55 (3) | 53 (3) | 67 (2) | 58 (3) | 31 | 31 | 26 | 30 | 63 | 52 | 2 | 15/8 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Peejaythedeejayd 3y 24 | J B Thompson — 18% R505 W92 P276 Trainer form — last 3 months | 47 | 54 | 50 (4) | 44 (4) | 64 (1) | 52 (3) | 55 (2) | 34 (6) | 47 (3) | 42 (5) | 44 (5) | 48 (4) | 26 | 32 | 17 | 29 | 49 | 42 | 4 | 7/2 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Portlaoise Jackd 2y 16 | C Jones — 13% R309 W39 P139 Trainer form — last 3 months | 59 | 43 | 56 (2) | 60 (3) | 76 (2) | 89 (2) | 85 (2) | 79 (2) | 73 (3) | 67 (1) | - | - | 4 | 70 | - | 50 | - | 14 | 5 | 6/4F | ||
The predicted winner with composite 57 and avgPerf 57 — solid but not the field's best on raw performance (Rinn Soileir has 63). A Fader (EP 60, bend 58, CS 17, PC 90) who will lead through the first two bends from T2. Her form at A5 480m (P57→P54→P37→P73→P59) includes the P73 win from leading all the way and the P59 3rd — genuine A5-calibre form. The most recent P57 3rd came from 'led to near line' — she was caught late, the classic Fader pattern. Suitability is outstanding: track 62, distance 54, trap 56 — the best across the field, confirming deep Monmore T2/inside form. Trainer Thompson at 28% is strong (22.4% at A5 Monmore from 58 runs). T2 at 17.2% from 250 runs is neutral — no structural help but no major headwind either. The concern: CS 17 over four bends at 480m means she'll fade, and Rinn Soileir (the closer) has the quality to catch her. But her consistency (PC 90) and the suitability edge give her the best chance of building enough of a lead.
Primary danger with the field's best avgPerf and closing speed. The class override principle is in play (63 vs field avg ~50 is 13+ points) but the near-dead T3 draw (14.7%) creates a structural fight. His staying-trip form (P94 at 630m) confirms quality but 480m may not give him enough room to close.
Dominant T1 draw and a P73 win from the rail make him a genuine contender. But the inconsistency (P73 followed by P46 6th) and mid-field avgPerf (54) limit confidence. A place contender who could win if he breaks cleanly.
Decent Fader from a neutral draw but the chronic crowding pattern (3 of last 5 runs) makes him hard to trust. When clear, he's competitive — but clearance isn't guaranteed.
Dominant T6 draw but trial-only form at A5 level is ambitious. Could be talented enough (Jones wouldn't waste an A5 entry on a no-hoper) but impossible to assess competitively. A mystery runner.
ANOMALOUS composite rank breakdown — R3 (22.6%) beats R1 (17.6%) and R2 (18.0%). This means the THIRD-best composite dog wins more than the top-rated dog at A5 480m Monmore. The prediction model's rankings are essentially noise at this grade. T1 and T6 are dual dominant traps. The pick (T2) is in a neutral-to-weak trap at 17.2%. T3 (Rinn Soileir's draw) is near-dead at 14.7% — despite him having the field's best avgPerf.
T1:22.0% T2:17.2% T3:14.7% T4:18.0% T5:17.7% T6:21.8%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Moorstown Brae | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Vixons Opaque | 60 | 17 | Fader |
3Rinn Soileir | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Peejaythedeejay | 56 | 21 | Fader |
6Portlaoise Jack | 49 | 54 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.