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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Sugar Girl Katieb 4y 23 | C S Fereday — 19% R454 W85 P228 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 47 | 71 (3) | 43 (4) | 40 (4) | 47 (3) | 47 (3) | 48 (2) | 54 (3) | 59 (2) | 42 (5) | 55 (2) | 55 | 49 | - | 46 | 51 | 51 | 1 | 1/1F | |
| 2 | ▶ Amka Ravenb 2y 5 | C S Fereday — 19% R454 W85 P228 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 58 | 42 (4) | 55 (1) | 37 (5) | 44 (3) | 57 (1) | 49 (3) | 47 (3) | 54 (2) | 57 (1) | 35 (5) | 25 | 33 | 33 | 32 | 47 | 41 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Has A Squeakb 4y 38 | J M Walton — 20% R244 W49 P128 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 41 | 38 (4) | 92 (1) | 87 (1) | 35 (5) | 55 (6) | 89 (1) | 75 (2) | 29 (6) | 86 (1) | 37 (5) | 32 | 34 | 38 | 30 | 53 | 46 | 3 | 18/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Longrange Chicod 3y 25 | J B Thompson — 19% R518 W97 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 40 | 35 (6) | 39 (3) | 33 (6) | 39 (6) | 55 (3) | 42 (5) | 59 (1) | 24 (4) | 49 (3) | 42 (4) | 24 | 14 | 18 | 25 | 38 | 32 | 5 | 11/4 | |
| 5 | ▶ Aero Peartd 4yN/R 36 | C S Fereday — 19% R454 W85 P228 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 53 | 28 (6) | 39 (5) | 56 (2) | 63 (1) | 56 (1) | 45 (2) | 41 (3) | 33 (5) | 53 (1) | 42 (3) | 24 | 39 | 14 | 32 | 45 | 40 | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Cazzers Ellieb 3y 13 | C D Marston — 15% R452 W67 P207 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 59 | 58 (6) | 49 (1) | 51 (2) | 56 (3) | 42 (2) | 50 (5) | 52 (2) | 58 (3) | 37 (1) | - | 36 | 39 | 23 | 28 | 54 | 47 | 2 | 5/2 | |
The predicted winner with composite 51 and avgPerf 51 — clear field-leader on ratings. A Closer (EP 47, CS 72, PC 83) who consistently finishes strongly from behind — recent comments include 'LackedEPace,RanOnLate', 'MissedBreak,Rails', 'SlowAway,Rls,FinishedWell'. Form is consistent in the high-40s to mid-50s (P47→P48→P54→P59→P42). Speed 59 is the field's best and speed rank 1 wins 22.4% at A8 480m. Track suit 49 and trap suit 55 are the field's best suitability scores, confirming genuine Monmore T1 form. Trainer Fereday at 14% is below average. T1 at 18.0% from 289 runs — slightly above expected but not dominant. The concern: T3 is DOMINANT at 26.6%, and the pick is NOT in T3. The prediction is based on ratings, but the structural data argues for T3. However, Sugar Girl Katie's speed advantage and suitability provide a counter-argument.
Primary danger based on best EP and second-best avgPerf. If she gets a clean lead and the pace isn't fast enough for the closers, she might hold on. But CS 17 over four bends at 480m is very low — the fade is likely to be significant.
AI Pick candidate based on T3's overwhelming 26.6% dominance. AvgPerf 53 is second-best. But recent 480m form (P37 5th, P36 6th) and a pure Closer profile create genuine doubts about whether she can deliver from the dominant position.
Will contest the lead with Cazzers Ellie but CS 12 over four bends means the fade will be severe. A pace-setting role rather than a winning chance. The P57 win was the exception, not the rule.
Proven ability at A7-A8 level (P63 win) but recent form collapse (P28, P39) from the near-dead T5 draw makes him hard to support. Needs to reverse the decline from the worst structural position.
Closer with strong trainer (Thompson 28%) but the field's worst track suit (14) and low avgPerf (38) make it hard to see him closing the gap on better dogs. The closing role is taken by the pick.
T3 massively dominant at 26.6% but it goes to Has A Squeak (Closer with poor recent form) rather than a front-runner. The pick (T1) is at 18.0% — slightly above expected. LOW SEPARATION (3.2pp). Speed rank 1 (22.4%) is a strong signal — Sugar Girl Katie's speed 59 is field-leading.
T1:18.0% T2:19.9% T3:26.6% T4:17.7% T5:14.8% T6:17.0%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Sugar Girl Katie | 47 | 72 | Closer |
2Amka Raven | 60 | 12 | Fader |
3Has A Squeak | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Longrange Chico | 41 | 67 | Closer |
5Aero Peart | 53 | 33 | All-Rounder |
6Cazzers Ellie | 64 | 17 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.