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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Swift Nyahb 4y 24 | C S Fereday — 18% R466 W86 P233 Trainer form — last 3 months | 58 | 47 | 50 | 34 (4) | 38 (4) | 33 (5) | 52 (1) | 38 (5) | 39 (5) | 38 (4) | 51 (3) | 49 (3) | 45 (4) | 35 | 32 | 22 | 31 | 46 | 41 | 2 | 11/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Aero Elmab 3y 34 | R Taberner — 20% R716 W143 P418 Trainer form — last 3 months | 55 | 52 | 59 | 33 (5) | 31 (3) | 38 (2) | 34 (3) | 37 (1) | 26 (4) | 25 (5) | 32 (2) | 37 (5) | 26 (3) | 34 | 26 | - | 32 | 35 | 33 | 3 | 7/4 | |
| 3 | ▶ Noduff Tropicanad 3y 24 | C S Fereday — 18% R466 W86 P233 Trainer form — last 3 months | 77 | 60 | 56 | 39 (5) | 65 (1) | 62 (2) | 59 (2) | 60 (2) | 55 (2) | 58 (2) | 63 (1) | 41 (5) | 52 (2) | 47 | 35 | 18 | 35 | 48 | 45 | 1 | 11/8F | |
| 4 | ▶ Aero Unionb 2y 25 | R Taberner — 20% R716 W143 P418 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 30 | 49 (6) | 53 (5) | 25 (1) | 47 (6) | 33 (1) | 39 (4) | 35 (3) | 23 (3) | 21 (6) | - | 40 | 29 | - | 26 | 37 | 35 | 4 | 11/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Suave Echod 2y 27 | P A Curtin — 17% R300 W51 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | 76 | 43 | 49 | 52 (1) | 30 (6) | 49 (2) | 28 (3) | 40 (3) | 51 (2) | 52 (1) | 34 (5) | 44 (3) | 29 (4) | 26 | 27 | - | 27 | 39 | 35 | 5 | 6/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Aurora Skyb 3y 7 | G A Griffiths — 20% R163 W32 P79 Trainer form — last 3 months | 86 | 49 | 50 | 62 (1) | 57 (6) | 75 (1) | 50 (2) | 40 (2) | 57 (4) | 48 (1) | 65 (2) | 57 (4) | - | 3 | 24 | 28 | 26 | 48 | 37 | 6 | 9/2 | |
Structural convergence at its best — the predicted winner with best composite (45) drawn in the DOMINANT T3 position (26.6% from 256 runs). As a Front Runner (EP 55, PC 84) with the field's best speed (60) and excellent bend rating (56), Noduff Tropicana has the pace profile to exploit the T3 advantage at Monmore 480m. Recent form shows improvement: P52 2nd with 'RanOn' followed by a half-time marker, then P45 4th with crowding at bend 1, then P13 (2nd at 480m), then P25 at 264m sprint, and P41 which was likely in a higher-class field. The P52 effort at A8 (ran on to finish 2nd) is the key form line — he was closing at the finish, suggesting 480m is his trip. Trap suit 47 and track suit 35 confirm reasonable T3 Monmore form. Trainer Fereday at 14% is below average but the structural position overrides the trainer signal.
Primary danger as the consistent All-Rounder from the rail. If Tropicana encounters first-bend trouble, Swift Nyah is best placed to capitalise. But she needs to avoid the crowding that's plagued her recent runs.
Strong raw ability (P52 A9 win, P73 at 630m) but trapped wide with a Closer profile and trap suit of just 3. The structural data is clearly against her from this draw.
Closer with proven finishing ability but the field's worst bend rating (30) and inconsistent form limit his chances. Needs a fast pace and a clear run through the bends, neither of which is guaranteed.
One A8 win (P53) in an otherwise mediocre sequence, from the near-dead T5 draw with poor suitability. Can be opposed with confidence.
Will lead through the first two bends with field-best EP (61) and bend (59) but confirmed Fader at 480m. Sets the pace for Tropicana and the closers. A pace angle, not a winning one.
T3 is massively dominant at 26.6% from 256 runs — well above any other trap. LOW SEPARATION (R1 21.8% vs R3 18.5% = 3.2pp gap). Speed rank 1 (22.4%) and speed rank 3 (21.7%) are nearly equal — speed doesn't separate well. Thompson 21.1% from 38 runs and Fereday 19.1% from 47 runs are moderate trainers. The pick in T3 has both the best composite AND the best trap — structural convergence.
T1:18.0% T2:19.9% T3:26.6% T4:17.7% T5:14.8% T6:17.0%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Swift Nyah | 51 | 51 | All-Rounder |
2Aero Elma | 61 | 30 | Fader |
3Noduff Tropicana | 55 | 49 | Front Runner |
4Aero Union | 20 | 100 | Closer |
5Suave Echo | 49 | 46 | All-Rounder |
6Aurora Sky | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.