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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tommys Magicald 1y 1 | J B Thompson — 18% R535 W97 P307 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 6 | 39 | 45 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | 45 | 10 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Swift Jenkinsd 3y 38 | A K Jenkins — 15% R164 W25 P85 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 51 | 74 (4) | 85 (3) | 52 (5) | 76 (4) | 77 (3) | 79 (1) | 63 (2) | 78 (1) | 66 (3) | 76 (2) | 32 | 33 | 52 | 51 | 73 | 47 | 5 | 6/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Pappys Jiverb 3yN/R 45 | G A Griffiths — 23% R157 W36 P74 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 49 | 53 (4) | 59 (4) | 53 (4) | 36 (2) | 80 (1) | 79 (1) | 56 (3) | 51 (4) | 60 (3) | 65 (2) | 21 | 43 | 23 | 33 | 61 | 44 | - | - | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Good Bobcatd 2y 17 | A K Jenkins — 15% R164 W25 P85 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 65 | 56 (4) | 70 (3) | 60 (2) | 77 (2) | 36 (3) | 68 (3) | 77 (1) | 44 (5) | 44 (5) | 73 (1) | 31 | 38 | 20 | 29 | 64 | 52 | 2 | 6/4F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Aero Replaceb 1y 1 | R Taberner — 18% R742 W134 P412 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 45 | 74 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 25 | - | 30 | 74 | 56 | 1 | 7/4 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Ragdoll Rosieb 2y 36 | R Taberner — 18% R742 W134 P412 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 61 | 61 (5) | 84 (2) | 59 (4) | 75 (1) | 66 (5) | 80 (4) | 100 (1) | 71 (5) | 93 (1) | 64 (2) | 49 | 40 | 37 | 36 | 73 | 50 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tommys Magical | 30.00 | 30.00 | 30.00 | 6 | 0.00 | Only 1 run | |
| 2 | Swift Jenkins | 28.82 | 29.02 | 29.27 | 52 | +0.45 | LTO at 630m | |
| 3 | Pappys Jiver | 28.73 | 29.11 | 29.58 | 46 | +0.85 | Same grade/trip LTO | |
| 4 | Good Bobcat | 28.71 | 29.09 | 29.16 | 53 | +0.45 | Dropped from A3 | |
| 5 | Aero Replace | 28.90 | 28.90 | 28.90 | 58 | 0.00 | Model pick, won LTO | |
| 6 | Ragdoll Rosie | 28.74 | 29.05 | 29.37 | 50 | +0.63 | LTO at 660m OR2 |
Monmore's 480 metres is a fair test where the long run to the first bend means early speed alone rarely decides it, and this is a much stronger field than most of the card, with several genuine performers. Aero Replace steps up in grade off the back of an impressive winning debut at the level below and is fastest and best-rated in this field, though it's still just the one run to judge her on. Good Bobcat dropped from a grade higher last time and ran to a solid level, giving her the clearest like-for-like benchmark in the race, though she does have a habit of fading in the closing stages. Swift Jenkins and Ragdoll Rosie both have big figures in their history but those came at very different distances or grades, so they need treating with some caution rather than taken at face value.
Fastest in the field on the clock and rates best on average performance, having won impressively on her only recorded outing at the grade below. That's still just one run to go on, so there's an element of taking a step into the unknown at this higher level, but the sheer quality of that debut effort — both on time and on the winning margin implied by her rating — makes her hard to leave out. Trainer R Taberner has a modest strike rate at the track. The clock and the rating both point to her as the one to beat, with the obvious caveat of limited experience.
Dropped down from the grade above last time out and ran a solid race there, which gives her arguably the clearest like-for-like benchmark of anyone in this field — she's already shown she can live with tougher opposition than tonight's. Owns the best first-bend figure in the race but has a weak closing speed figure, meaning she needs to be up with the pace rather than relying on a strong finish. Trainer A K Jenkins has a strong strike rate at the track. A leading contender if she can get to the front early.
Only one recorded run at this level so there's very little to judge her on beyond a third-place finish. Well off the pace of this field on the clock. Trainer J B Thompson has a modest strike rate at the track. Too little evidence against a field with much stronger recent form.
Has shown some big figures in the past, including an 85-rated effort a few runs back, but her most recent outing came over a much longer marathon trip, so it's not directly comparable to tonight's test. A pure finisher who does all her best work late. Trainer A K Jenkins has one of the better strike rates among these connections. The underlying quality is there but the recent evidence is muddled by the change in distance.
Ran at this exact grade and distance last time out, finishing fourth with a workmanlike effort, which at least makes her form directly comparable to tonight's task. Earlier peaks of 79 and 80 show there's more in the tank than her recent runs suggest. Trainer G A Griffiths has the best strike rate in this field. A versatile racer who should cope with however the race is run.
Has touched a big level in the past with an 84-rated effort a few runs back, and boasts one of the strongest closing speed figures in the field. But her most recent outing came at a considerably higher grade over a much longer marathon trip, so that figure needs treating with real caution at tonight's shorter distance. Trainer R Taberner has a modest strike rate at the track. Interesting on the raw numbers but the context around her recent form is mixed.
Key insight: Trap 1 is a strong draw at this grade, winning close to a quarter of races, and the ratings model holds up reasonably well at this level — better than the middle grades either side of it.
T1:24.7% T2:15.5% T3:21.6% T4:16.0% T5:17.0% T6:18.3%
1,280 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Tommys Magical | 47 | 0 | All-Rounder |
2Swift Jenkins | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Pappys Jiver | 53 | 52 | All-Rounder |
4Good Bobcat | 67 | 8 | Fader |
5Aero Replace | 53 | 48 | All-Rounder |
6Ragdoll Rosie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 480m | 630m | 660m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tommys Magical | — | 0.625 | — | — |
| 2 | Swift Jenkins | — | 0.605 | 0.620 | — |
| 4 | Good Bobcat | 0.594 | 0.606 | — | — |
| 5 | Aero Replace | — | 0.602 | — | — |
| 6 | Ragdoll Rosie | — | 0.605 | 0.616 | 0.618 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.