| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Trumpers Derekd 2y 6 | N J Deas — 16% R393 W62 P200 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 52 | 63 (2) | 56 (4) | 65 (2) | 76 (1) | 56 (4) | 62 (2) | 66 (2) | 58 (3) | 53 (5) | 77 (1) | 44 | 46 | 45 | 50 | 63 | 54 | 1 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Salacres Merkelb 3y 15 | P H Harnden — 15% R361 W54 P206 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 51 | 47 (4) | 72 (1) | 37 (1) | 63 (2) | 43 (5) | 62 (2) | 31 (3) | 53 (4) | 56 (3) | 72 (1) | 27 | 35 | 17 | 47 | 61 | 43 | 6 | 6/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Fabulous Jurab 2y 14 | L G Tuffin — 21% R272 W58 P138 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 42 | 81 (2) | 55 (4) | 41 (6) | 75 (1) | 69 (1) | 68 (1) | 23 (5) | 26 (4) | 22 (5) | 27 (4) | 20 | 46 | 10 | 43 | 60 | 49 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Salacres Wildd 3y 4 | P H Harnden — 15% R361 W54 P206 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 47 | 35 (2) | 64 (2) | 57 (3) | 69 (2) | 54 (4) | 65 (3) | 42 (6) | 81 (1) | 28 (5) | 41 (1) | 37 | 33 | 31 | 29 | 62 | 49 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Ballymac Mistb 3y 15 | H J Dimmock — 25% R198 W49 P110 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 59 | 50 (4) | 75 (1) | 55 (3) | 47 (5) | 44 (6) | 64 (2) | 62 (3) | 53 (5) | 54 (4) | 63 (4) | 8 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 57 | 40 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Be More Ruthlessd 2y 18 | H J Dimmock — 25% R198 W49 P110 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 49 | 47 (5) | 56 (3) | 53 (5) | 63 (6) | 69 (2) | 56 (5) | 60 (4) | 78 (1) | 49 (5) | 73 (2) | 26 | 23 | 33 | 27 | 61 | 46 | 2 | 2/1F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trumpers Derek | 29.63 | 29.84 | 29.87 | 49 | +0.24 | Pick, model's top pick | |
| 2 | Salacres Merkel | 29.76 | 29.98 | 29.86 | 45 | +0.10 | Flagged as lay | |
| 3 | Fabulous Jura | 29.46 | 29.82 | 29.91 | 51 | +0.45 | Career star, tied fastest rating | |
| 4 | Salacres Wild | 29.54 | 29.88 | 29.79 | 51 | +0.25 | Danger, best trap in grade | |
| 5 | Ballymac Mist | 29.45 | 29.94 | 30.30 | 43 | +0.85 | Well off best last time | |
| 6 | Be More Ruthless | 29.49 | 29.81 | 30.13 | 48 | +0.64 |
Towcester's 500m rewards dogs who get into a rhythm early without getting crowded on the first bend, and this A4 grade has been one of the more reliable at this venue for the ratings — the top-rated dog winning close to a quarter of the time, better than most grades here. Trap four has been the best-performing box at nearly 23%, trap three the weakest at 16%. Trumpers Derek races tucked on the rails from trap one and has been metronomic at this exact course, distance and grade — a win and four runner-up finishes from his last six starts, all hugging the inside. Salacres Wild, from the best trap in the grade, has matched that consistency without quite getting his head in front. If those two dispute it up front, the confirmed closers further back — Be More Ruthless and Ballymac Mist — will be waiting to pounce late.
Metronomically consistent at this exact course, distance and grade — a win and four runner-up finishes from his last six starts, every single one of them hugging the rail from this same trap. He carries the highest raw performance figure of anyone in the race, and his trainer has been outstanding in these conditions, winning one in three from twenty-four runs. He's not the fastest dog on the clock, but between the consistency, the trainer and the proven running line, this looks the strongest case on the card so far.
Drawn in the best-performing trap in this grade and shares the fastest recorded rating in the field. His course and distance record over his last six starts reads two seconds and two thirds — remarkably consistent without quite getting his head in front. He's a fast-early type who tends to lose ground late, which is the pattern in most of those placed efforts. If he can find the extra yard to convert a place into a win, this is the box to do it from.
Won last time out but that was a grade lower at A5, so this is a step back up. He's the slowest recorded dog in this field and the probability model gives him less than a one-in-ten chance here. The class rise and the pace figures both work against him.
A career strike rate of 31% from thirteen starts marks him out as a proven winner, and he shares the fastest recorded rating in this field. He steps down having last run in open company, finishing fourth, so there's no shame in that formline. Trap three has been the weakest box in this grade, which is the one thing working against him.
Finished fourth last time out and his last recorded time was well over half a second slower than his best, suggesting he's not quite firing at the minute. He's a confirmed closer who does his best work late, which could suit if the pace up front is strong, but his trainer's record in these conditions is the standout positive at nearly a quarter of winners.
Finished third last time out and, like his kennel companion Ballymac Mist, is trained by a yard with a strong record in these conditions. He's another confirmed closer who does his best work from off the pace, and his last time was noticeably slower than his best. A place chance if the finish is needed rather than a banker to lead throughout.
Key insight: This is one of Towcester's more reliable grades for the ratings — the top-rated dog wins close to a quarter of the time here, clearly ahead of the track average
Trap four strongest at 23%, trap three weakest at 16%
1,480 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Trumpers Derek | 50 | 48 | All-Rounder |
2Salacres Merkel | 52 | 41 | All-Rounder |
3Fabulous Jura | 50 | 52 | All-Rounder |
4Salacres Wild | 58 | 22 | Fader |
5Ballymac Mist | 14 | 100 | Closer |
6Be More Ruthless | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 435m | 500m | 712m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trumpers Derek | — | — | 0.597 | — |
| 2 | Salacres Merkel | 0.602 | — | 0.600 | — |
| 3 | Fabulous Jura | 0.613 | — | 0.596 | 0.628 |
| 4 | Salacres Wild | 0.602 | — | 0.598 | — |
| 5 | Ballymac Mist | — | 0.612 | 0.599 | — |
| 6 | Be More Ruthless | — | — | 0.597 | 0.628 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.