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Tuesday Night Racing @ Shelbourne A3 525 Semi-Final
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Emilias Angelb 2y 23 | Laurence Kelly — 67% R3 W2 P2 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | - | 84 (1) | 44 (6) | 61 (4) | 57 (4) | 71 (2) | 46 (6) | 69 (2) | 58 (3) | 54 (4) | 42 (5) | 16 | 25 | - | 13 | 61 | 33 | 4 | 5/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Nushkas Madrab 2y 34 | Maureen Finnegan — 0% R6 W0 P2 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | - | 60 (4) | 46 (6) | 63 (3) | 86 (1) | 53 (4) | 61 (5) | 58 (4) | 55 (6) | 68 (3) | 74 (3) | 38 | 29 | 26 | 26 | 61 | 36 | 1 | 3/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Smooth Samd 2y 34 | - | - | 42 | - | 49 (6) | 70 (2) | 65 (2) | 64 (4) | 41 (6) | 54 (5) | 51 (6) | 60 (4) | 51 (5) | 60 (4) | 10 | 28 | - | 11 | 57 | 32 | 3 | 4/5 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Beat It Slowd 3y 25 | - | - | 51 | - | 64 (2) | 80 (1) | 62 (2) | 56 (4) | 37 (6) | 51 (6) | 40 (6) | 44 (6) | 48 (6) | 50 (6) | 29 | 17 | - | 33 | 57 | 39 | 2 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emilias Angel | Last run was over 350m - stepping up to 525m tonight, a big rise in trip. | — | Distance rise | ||||
| 2 | Nushkas Madra | 28.94 | 29.30 | 29.35 | 57 | +0.41 | Model pick, class drop | |
| 3 | Lolos Lady | 29.27 | 29.39 | 29.27 | 52 | 0.00 | Consistent | |
| 4 | Duty First | Only raced over 350m before - big step up in trip and drawn in the worst box. | — | Distance rise, weak trap | ||||
| 5 | Darraghs Cashout | 29.00 | 29.55 | 30.52 | 37 | +1.52 | Well below best last time | |
| 6 | Beat It Slow | 29.23 | 29.52 | 29.23 | 51 | 0.00 | Big C&D mileage | |
Same conditions as the earlier A3 heat over 525 metres tonight - trap 1 leads the way at 23.46%, trap 2 is next best at 20%, and trap 4 is the one to avoid at just 11.54%. This looks a genuinely tricky race to separate. Nushkas Madra drops down from A2 grade with a well-rounded profile across trap, track and distance suitability, and already has course-and-distance form in the book. Beat It Slow has the most experience of anyone at this course and distance and steps up here off an encouraging run. Emilias Angel arrives with the strongest trainer percentage in the field but is stepping up sharply in trip, having only raced over half this distance before, which is a real question mark. Darraghs Cashout has shown a big level in the recent past but their last effort was well below that.
Drops down from A2 grade tonight having been competitive there, finishing fourth last time out rated 60. The suitability figures for this dog stand out across the board - trap, track and distance all rate well, which is unusual to see all line up together. Seven runs at this course and distance have brought a win and a place, solid proof this combination suits. Trap 2 is the second-best box at this trip tonight, adding a further tick. The best-rounded case in the field.
Steps up from A4 grade off a promising second-place run rated 64 last time out. Ten runs at this course and distance is more experience than anyone else in the field, and it has yielded a win and three places - clear evidence the conditions suit. Form has been mixed, with a peak of 80 five runs back showing the ceiling. Trap 6 has been one of the weaker boxes at this trip, which is the main knock.
A fairly consistent, if unspectacular, performer with form of 53, 54, 49, 48, 70 and 23 - the 70 four runs back shows there's a bit more in the locker than the recent scores suggest. Five course-and-distance runs have produced a win and two places. Trap 3 is a moderate draw at this trip. Solid without being spectacular.
Trainer Laurence Kelly's 50% strike rate is the strongest in the field by some way, and the draw in trap 1 is the best box at this trip tonight, both plus points. But the last win came over just 350 metres - barely two-thirds of tonight's trip - and there's no evidence yet she can last out the extra distance. That's a significant unknown to carry into a step up this size, even with the trainer form and draw in her favour.
Capable of running to a big figure, having hit 87 three runs back, but the last run was well below that level, rated just 39. Form has been volatile - 39, 69, 87, 72, 65 and 54 - showing genuine ability but no guarantee it turns up on the night. Trap 5 is a reasonably productive box at this trip. The peak form is there, but the last effort raises a question over current shape.
Only two runs to date, both over a much shorter 350 metres, so tonight's step up to 525 metres is a significant unknown on top of drawing the worst box at this trip. Trainer Owen McKenna has a modest 24% strike rate. Very little to go on here relative to the rest of this field.
Key insight: Trap 1 wins nearly a quarter of races at this grade and trip, and the model's top pick converts at 32.97% here - a strong signal when it lines up with the right dog.
T1:23.46% T2:20% T3:16.25% T4:11.54% T5:17.72% T6:13.92%
477 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 350m | 525m | 550m | 575m | 600m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emilias Angel | 0.566 | 0.539 | 0.564 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Nushkas Madra | — | — | 0.558 | 0.554 | 0.555 | 0.562 |
| 3 | Smooth Sam | — | — | 0.565 | 0.551 | — | — |
| 6 | Beat It Slow | — | — | 0.562 | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.