Loading...
Racing Again This Friday Night A1 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Roarin Ogarad 1y 16 | Scott Phelan — 27% R15 W4 P10 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | - | 99 (1) | 69 (4) | 77 (2) | 72 (2) | 67 (1) | 65 (1) | - | - | - | - | 23 | 28 | 30 | 39 | 77 | 57 | 1 | 3/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Mill Willowd 1y 11 | Barry Clancy — 21% R39 W8 P25 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 66 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 30 | - | 30 | 66 | 45 | 6 | 2/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Raha Ruad 3y 25 | Vincent McKenna — 26% R35 W9 P20 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 80 (3) | 61 (6) | 75 (3) | 47 (4) | 38 (5) | 60 (5) | 44 (5) | 51 (4) | 57 (2) | 56 (4) | - | 15 | - | 11 | 60 | 42 | 3 | 2/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Francisco Bayd 2y 25 | Michael Taggart(NI) — 29% R34 W10 P21 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | - | 45 (6) | 72 (3) | 89 (1) | 82 (1) | 71 (2) | 54 (6) | 67 (3) | 55 (5) | 57 (5) | 65 (1) | 38 | - | - | 29 | 66 | 30 | 4 | 4/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Group All Starb 1y 24 | Liam O'Rourke — 5% R42 W2 P20 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 19 | - | 81 (2) | 70 (5) | 84 (1) | 46 (4) | 63 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | 36 | 28 | 6 | 37 | 71 | 24 | 5 | 4/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Old Chicagod 4y 25 | - | - | 52 | - | 76 (3) | 72 (4) | 82 (2) | 82 (2) | 62 (6) | 70 (2) | 75 (3) | 76 (3) | 64 (3) | 50 (5) | - | 53 | 26 | 29 | 73 | 54 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roarin Ogara | 28.91 | 28.93 | 28.91 | 58 | 0.00 | Model pick, best trap | |
| 2 | Mill Willow | — | — | — | — | — | Big class rise | |
| 3 | Raha Rua | 29.04 | 29.11 | 29.04 | 51 | 0.00 | Volatile form | |
| 4 | Francisco Bay | 29.06 | 29.44 | 29.33 | 40 | +0.27 | Stepping up from A3 | |
| 5 | Group All Star | 29.69 | 29.70 | 29.69 | 19 | +0.01 | Runner-up last time here | |
| 6 | Old Chicago | 28.95 | 29.14 | 28.95 | 52 | 0.00 | Big C&D mileage, weak trap |
The top grade of the night, and trap 1 remains the box to be in at 525 metres here, winning 22.79% - trap 2 is a close second at 22.22%, while trap 6 is clearly the weakest at just 10.37%. Roarin Ogara ticks every box available - the best draw, a huge recent win at this exact grade, and suitability figures that stand out across the board, particularly over this trip. Old Chicago is the obvious danger, vastly experienced at this course and distance with a string of places but no win yet, hampered by landing in the worst box tonight. Mill Willow arrives with a big class rise having only beaten much weaker company, while Group All Star was runner-up in this grade last time but carries the poorest trainer percentage of the six.
Won last time out at this exact grade with a huge rated performance of 99, one of the standout figures produced all night, and the six-run form line of 99, 69, 77, 72, 67 and 65 shows a dog racing at a genuinely high level. Trainer Scott Phelan's 20% strike rate undersells how well this dog is going right now. The suitability figures for distance and class both rate strongly, and the draw in trap 1 is the best box at this grade and trip. Three course-and-distance runs have yet to produce a win but have brought two places. Every major factor - the draw, the recent form, and the suitability profile - points the same way.
Remarkably consistent, with the last six runs reading 76, 72, 82, 82, 62 and 70 - never far from a big figure. Eight runs at this course and distance have produced three places, showing the conditions plainly suit, even without a win to show for it yet. The track suitability figure of 53 is the strongest of anyone in the race. The one downside is the draw - trap 6 has been the weakest box at this grade and trip tonight, which is the main thing standing between this dog and a bigger chance.
Was runner-up in this exact grade last time out, rated 81, and the suitability figures across trap, track and distance are all solidly positive. The concern is trainer Liam O'Rourke's strike rate, the lowest of anyone in this field at just 6%. Trap 5 has been a productive box at this trip. Already competitive at this level, so shouldn't be dismissed lightly.
Capable of big performances, having hit 80 two runs back, but the form has been volatile - 80, 61, 75, 47, 38 and 60 - making this a harder dog to trust on any given night. Trainer Vincent McKenna's 31% strike rate is a positive. Trap 3 is a moderate box at this trip. Four course-and-distance runs have yet to produce a win or a place.
Steps up from A3 grade tonight off a well-beaten last run rated just 45, though the form before that showed a much higher level, peaking at 89 three runs back. Trainer Michael Taggart's 33% strike rate is a plus. Trap 4 has been one of the weaker boxes at this trip. The class rise off a poor recent effort is the main concern.
Won impressively last time out, but that came in a much softer novice grade, and this is a huge step up in class to take on the top level tonight off just one competitive run. Trap 2 is the second-best box at this grade and trip, which does at least give a fighting chance if the class rise doesn't overwhelm. Trainer Barry Clancy has a modest 25% record. A leap of faith on the draw alone.
Key insight: Trap 1 and trap 2 combine for nearly 45% of winners at this grade and trip, while trap 6 rarely produces the winner at just over 10%.
T1:22.79% T2:22.22% T3:16.67% T4:11.11% T5:18.8% T6:10.37%
806 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 350m | 400m | 525m | 550m | 575m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roarin Ogara | — | — | 0.551 | — | — |
| 2 | Mill Willow | — | — | 0.546 | — | — |
| 3 | Raha Rua | 0.547 | 0.533 | 0.551 | — | — |
| 4 | Francisco Bay | 0.558 | 0.545 | 0.559 | — | — |
| 5 | Group All Star | — | — | 0.556 | — | — |
| 6 | Old Chicago | — | — | 0.551 | 0.551 | 0.551 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.