| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Blue Spartab 3yN/R 4 | S J Rayner — 17% R139 W23 P75 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 50 | 56 (1) | 32 (5) | 40 (4) | 26 (6) | 41 (5) | 37 (5) | 39 (5) | 50 (2) | 35 (5) | 39 (5) | 24 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 40 | 45 | - | - | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Synchronicityb 5y 47 | H J Dimmock — 25% R198 W49 P110 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 58 | 45 (4) | 31 (5) | 36 (4) | 37 (5) | 43 (2) | 43 (4) | 34 (6) | 39 (4) | 58 (1) | 32 (5) | 8 | 20 | - | 2 | 37 | 22 | 5 | 13/8 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ballyclearyflashd 3y 7 | D D Porter — 17% R479 W80 P257 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 55 | 56 (1) | 30 (5) | 37 (3) | 25 (5) | 39 (5) | 49 (2) | 35 (5) | 37 (5) | 43 (4) | 33 (5) | 28 | 22 | 29 | 25 | 39 | 41 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Magical Pippab 3y 5 | D Jeans — 15% R219 W33 P96 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 44 | 38 (3) | 57 (1) | 43 (2) | 46 (2) | 47 (2) | 30 (6) | 30 (6) | 35 (6) | 25 (6) | 33 (5) | 18 | 24 | 11 | 33 | 41 | 44 | 2 | 5/4F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Magical Herod 3y 14 | D Jeans — 15% R219 W33 P96 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 45 | 27 (6) | 33 (5) | 58 (1) | 48 (2) | 35 (4) | 33 (5) | 35 (5) | 38 (4) | 45 (4) | 57 (1) | 27 | 23 | - | 26 | 42 | 38 | 3 | 7/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Moredramakirstieb 3y 6 | A Welch — 13% R309 W40 P144 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 51 | 30 (6) | 35 (5) | 60 (5) | 61 (1) | 45 (5) | 37 (3) | 39 (6) | 61 (6) | 44 (1) | - | 28 | 23 | 44 | 25 | 44 | 46 | 1 | 5/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blue Sparta | 30.33 | 30.66 | 30.33 | 55 | 0.00 | Model pick | |
| 2 | Synchronicity | 30.77 | 30.77 | 30.77 | 40 | 0.00 | Flagged as lay | |
| 3 | Ballyclearyflash | 30.39 | 30.98 | 30.39 | 47 | 0.00 | ||
| 4 | Magical Pippa | 30.27 | 30.65 | 30.69 | 51 | +0.42 | ||
| 5 | Magical Hero | 30.00 | 30.62 | 31.15 | 49 | +1.15 | Well off best last time | |
| 6 | Moredramakirstie | 30.15 | 30.52 | 30.86 | 53 | +0.71 | Danger |
Towcester's 500m looks like a galloping test on paper but the tight first bend still rewards dogs who get there in good order, and trap three has traditionally been the standout box here — though in this A7 grade it's traps two and five that have shared top billing, both winning close to 21% of the time, with trap one the weakest at just under 16%. Blue Sparta goes from the rail and, on pure early gate speed, should be the one setting the pace — he led all the way when winning here last time out with a similarly quick getaway. Moredramakirstie always races wide from the sixth box and needs the pace up front to be strong enough to set up a strong finish, which is exactly her pattern when she's won at this course before. Magical Hero and Magical Pippa are the traditional all-rounders in the field who can sit just off that pace and pick up the pieces if the leaders fade in the closing stages.
Won last time out from this exact trap by getting away quickest and leading throughout, and his time that day matches his fastest recorded run — he's arriving in form, not fading off it. He's also the quickest dog in this field on the clock, and when the fastest dog and the top-rated dog are the same runner at Towcester over 500 metres that combination has been one of the strongest signals anywhere in the data. Trap one has actually been this grade's weakest box, and his trainer's record in these conditions is modest, but his own running style — quick away and rails-hugging — has repeatedly got the better of that draw disadvantage personally. Steps up from an A8 win, which is a test, but he looks up to it on the balance of the evidence.
Carries the highest raw performance figure of anyone in the race and her trainer has a strong record in these conditions, winning one in four. She always races wide from the sixth box, and while that's cost her before, she's shown she can finish strongly from off the pace when things fall right — winning from this exact trap five races back by picking up the leaders late. If the pace up front is genuine, she's the one best placed to run through it.
Steps up from B4 over a shorter trip and drops in significantly, but the early signs aren't encouraging — she's the slowest recorded dog in this field by a clear margin and her stamina profile shows a fast starter who fades hard late, which is a tough combination over a full 500 metres. Worth noting the probability model gives her less than a one-in-ten chance here, effectively flagging her as one to leave alone rather than back.
Won last time out at A8 level and has been a picture of consistency in her pace figures, though this is a step up in company. Fast away but tends to lose ground in the closing stages, and her trainer's record in these conditions is on the modest side. Respected without being able to match the top two on the clock.
Placed third last time out and races as a balanced all-rounder who can sit close to the pace throughout — the type who benefits if the front-runners go too hard too early. Her trainer has a fair record in these conditions and she's not far off the pace on the clock either. A each-way sort rather than a banker.
Actually owns the fastest recorded time of anyone in this field, but his last run was well over a second slower than that best effort, so the true current form looks closer to his average than his peak. Drawn in one of the two best boxes in this grade, which helps his cause, and he's a balanced runner who doesn't rely purely on early speed. The gap between his best and his last suggests he's not quite firing at the minute.
Key insight: The fastest dog and the top-rated dog are the same runner here, and when that happens at Towcester over 500 metres it's one of the strongest signals in the data — even though that dog is drawn in this grade's weakest box
Trap two and trap five share top spot at around 21%, trap one weakest at 16%
1,122 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Blue Sparta | 49 | 51 | All-Rounder |
2Synchronicity | 100 | 0 | Fader |
3Ballyclearyflash | 55 | 10 | Fader |
4Magical Pippa | 48 | 54 | All-Rounder |
5Magical Hero | 51 | 49 | All-Rounder |
6Moredramakirstie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 460m | 500m | 712m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Synchronicity | 0.605 | 0.608 | — |
| 3 | Ballyclearyflash | — | 0.620 | — |
| 4 | Magical Pippa | — | 0.613 | — |
| 5 | Magical Hero | — | 0.613 | — |
| 6 | Moredramakirstie | — | 0.610 | 0.629 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.