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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Mustang Razord 3y 25 | J M Liles — 18% R422 W77 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 58 | 34 (4) | 42 (5) | 57 (3) | 36 (4) | 42 (2) | 42 (4) | 63 (1) | 70 (2) | 86 (1) | 74 (1) | 52 | 43 | 38 | 44 | 46 | 46 | 5 | 10/3 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Trapstyle Blueyd 3y 4 | J M Liles — 18% R422 W77 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 47 | 58 (3) | 55 (4) | 49 (5) | 65 (3) | 54 (5) | 50 (5) | 50 (5) | 48 (4) | 75 (4) | 77 (4) | 53 | 32 | 32 | 37 | 65 | 56 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Bogger Prod 2y 23 | A Welch — 14% R315 W44 P155 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 47 | 59 (5) | 69 (3) | 57 (4) | 75 (3) | 82 (1) | 79 (1) | 60 (4) | 58 (3) | 65 (3) | 28 (3) | 29 | 35 | - | 35 | 66 | 54 | 4 | 9/4F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Makeitpaddingtond 2y 25 | F J Gray — 18% R349 W63 P186 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 65 | 51 (5) | 70 (3) | 56 (5) | 47 (1) | 31 (4) | 75 (3) | 89 (1) | 36 (2) | 47 (1) | 39 (2) | 66 | 64 | - | 58 | 54 | 57 | 1 | 3/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Grafton Stard 2y 24 | H J Dimmock — 19% R177 W34 P97 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 40 | 61 (4) | 83 (1) | 66 (2) | 69 (3) | 73 (2) | 68 (2) | 48 (6) | 58 (5) | 86 (1) | 71 (2) | 42 | 43 | 40 | 44 | 67 | 59 | 3 | 5/2 | - | |
Makeitpaddington is the pick by composite score (57, highest in field) and predicted position. This dog occupies T4 which wins 25.83% at A2 500m — above neutral — and the trap suitability of 66 is the highest in the field, providing strong individual alignment with the structural draw advantage: this dog has historically done well from T4 at these conditions. Track suitability 64 and distance suit 58 are both high, confirming genuine Towcester 500m experience. EP 65 and bend 65 give this dog an excellent profile for getting to the first bend cleanly and leading into the early sections. The primary concerns are the trial warning (2 of last 6 races are trials, including the most recent) and the Fader profile (CS 0). The recent trial form (1st T1 trial in 29.69s) shows a quick time but trials must be discounted. The most recent meaningful open form was an OR (old rating) level run showing P75 (4th) and P89 (3rd) — these are older data points. In a LOW SEPARATION race, the structural position (T4, 25.83%) and the individual trap suitability (66) become the primary factors, which supports the prediction. The Fader concern at 500m remains real — CS 0 means no closing ability at all, and if Bogger Pro (CS 89) or Grafton Star (CS 56) get close in the final stretch, this dog has no gear to respond.
Two consecutive wins, best closing speed in field (CS 89), form danger at A2. Moderate draw and weak trainer offset the strong form. Main danger if the predicted winner fades.
Best performance rating and composite in field, consistent A2 form with two recent 2nds, but weak trainer and neutral draw. Strong danger to the pick — in a low-separation grade, consistent A2 form like this can win on any given day.
Structurally favoured T1 with a strong recent A3 win. But Fader profile at 500m and inconsistent wider form make this a watch rather than a backing proposition. Could outrun the predictions but not the pick.
Competitive A2 form before the recent D1 aberration. Below-neutral draw is a structural negative in a low-separation grade. Hard to fully trust until the D1 run is explained.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 wins 23.45% vs R3 at 18.89% — just 4.56pp gap. Ratings offer minimal predictive separation at A2. Multiple traps (T1, T4) are above neutral. Trap bias and suitability should lead analysis over raw performance ratings. Speed rank 1 wins 27.03% — speed is more predictive than composite rank in this grade.
T1:25.9% T2:16.9% T3:18.52% T4:25.83% T5:19.15% T6:26.51%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Mustang Razor | 55 | 13 | Fader |
2Trapstyle Bluey | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Bogger Pro | 47 | 89 | Closer |
4Makeitpaddington | 65 | 0 | Fader |
5Grafton Star | 50 | 56 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 280m | 450m | 460m | 480m | 500m | 712m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mustang Razor | 0.596 | 0.586 | — | 0.589 | — | 0.590 | — |
| 2 | Trapstyle Bluey | — | — | — | — | 0.587 | 0.600 | 0.625 |
| 3 | Bogger Pro | 0.611 | — | 0.611 | — | — | 0.592 | — |
| 4 | Makeitpaddington | 0.593 | — | — | — | — | 0.596 | — |
| 5 | Grafton Star | — | — | — | — | — | 0.593 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.