| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Miss Monacob 2y 5 | P B Philpott — 15% R138 W21 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 24 (2) | 19 (6) | 23 (2) | 24 (2) | 24 (2) | 24 (3) | 17 (6) | 23 (4) | 29 (2) | 29 (3) | 55 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 41 | 37 | 2 | 9/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Orcas Iconb 2y 6 | A Welch — 15% R313 W47 P159 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | - | 22 (5) | 25 (3) | 27 (2) | 17 (6) | 25 (3) | 21 (5) | 27 (4) | 27 (2) | 20 (2) | - | 47 | 34 | - | 34 | 26 | 30 | 5 | 14/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Flitwick Triggerd 2y 24 | P T Henman — 19% R37 W7 P17 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 66 | - | 38 (6) | 47 (5) | 48 (2) | 77 (4) | 60 (1) | 75 (4) | 55 (1) | 72 (3) | 69 (2) | - | 38 | 52 | - | 51 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 1/1F | |
| 4 | ▶ Makeit Dreamb 1y 36 | F J Gray — 20% R351 W70 P186 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 42 (4) | 49 (2) | 46 (3) | 32 (1) | 27 (3) | 31 (1) | 22 (5) | 25 (3) | 24 (4) | - | 45 | 40 | - | 40 | 26 | 31 | 3 | 7/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Unknown Allieb 1y 5 | D D Porter — 17% R522 W90 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 33 (4) | 37 (3) | 42 (1) | 28 (5) | 31 (4) | 29 (6) | 42 (1) | 28 (4) | 31 (3) | 29 (4) | 4 | 17 | - | 17 | 24 | 20 | 6 | 6/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ St Edmunds Dand 2y 25 | P B Philpott — 15% R138 W21 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 22 (4) | 20 (6) | 23 (4) | 27 (3) | 24 (3) | 27 (2) | 24 (5) | 22 (6) | 21 (6) | 31 (2) | 5 | 57 | 35 | 57 | 28 | 32 | 4 | 5/1 | |
The model's selection presents the most compelling statistical profile in this race by a considerable margin — performance of 51 and composite of 50 are both at least nine points clear of any rival. Trainer P T Henman sends this dog in as a clear class act in D3 company, having been competing in A6 grade at 500m — two divisions higher than today's grade. The obvious question is whether that 500m form translates to 270m sprint conditions. The answer may be more positive than it first appears. Examining his comments across recent A6 500m runs, Flitwick Trigger carries consistent early pace markers: 'Mid,EP,SnLedToRnIn' when third on March 21; 'Mid,EP,SnLdToNrLn' when second on March 3. At 500m, he leads or disputes the lead through the early stages before being pegged back in the home straight — a pattern that is essentially ideal at 270m, where races are decided in the first three seconds out of the boxes and early pace is the premium attribute. Finishing second in A6 company from T3 at 30.04s shows genuine competitive pace at a level well above D3. The class drop from A6 to D3 is the defining factor — at D3, his rivals are simply not in the same tier of ability. Trap three is structurally dominant at 21.41% from 355 runs. The combination of best-in-field ratings, dominant trap draw, and early-pace running profile that suits the sprint format creates a strong case for this selection despite the discipline change.
PRIMARY DANGER. Best genuine D3 form in the field at this track and distance. In the dominant T1 draw. If Flitwick Trigger's class drop brings uncertainty, Miss Monaco is the natural alternative. A legitimate each-way proposition.
Below-par D3 performer. One genuine D3 result (5th, interference noted) from a dominant draw. Not competitive against the better-rated runners here.
Each-way tail at best. Can compete in D3 company (proved by his third on March 11) but is outgunned by Flitwick Trigger and slightly behind Miss Monaco on form recency and discipline-specific credentials.
No interest. Dead draw, lowest ratings, form history of interference and slow starts. At 270m Towcester, T5 is the box from which wins simply do not come at D3 level.
Structurally compromised. Genuine ability shown in the March 3 win but all form has come from dead traps, and today is no different. Cannot recommend from T6 in 270m D3 racing at Towcester.
LOW SEPARATION flag active — composite rank alone is insufficient for confident selection. T5 and T6 are confirmed dead draws in 270m D3 racing at Towcester. T1 through T4 are all dominant, meaning inside draw provides an advantage but does not differentiate between specific traps. The PICK (T3) is in a dominant position, which structurally supports the prediction rather than contradicting it. Individual form and running style become the decisive factors in this race.
T1: 23.15% (298 runs) | T2: 22.73% (396 runs) | T3: 21.41% (355 runs) | T4: 20.65% (402 runs) | T5: 13.55% (310 runs) | T6: 13.64% (220 runs)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.