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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Fabulous Shelbyb 3yN/R 22 | L G Tuffin — 25% R277 W68 P147 Trainer form — last 3 months | 22 | 50 | 25 (4) | 35 (5) | 44 (6) | 59 (4) | 37 (1) | 22 (6) | 44 (5) | 73 (1) | 46 (4) | 28 (4) | 54 | 39 | - | 25 | 43 | 42 | - | - | ||
| 2 | ▶ Fabulous Shonab 2yN/R 12 | L G Tuffin — 25% R277 W68 P147 Trainer form — last 3 months | 35 | 37 | 74 (2) | 78 (4) | 48 (5) | 46 (6) | 61 (4) | 91 (1) | 55 (1) | 48 (6) | 46 (4) | - | 30 | 49 | 38 | 26 | 56 | 49 | - | - | ||
| 3 | ▶ Makeit Lottieb 1y 25 | F J Gray — 21% R350 W73 P188 Trainer form — last 3 months | 53 | 64 | 47 (5) | 63 (1) | 66 (3) | 48 (2) | 90 (1) | 67 (2) | 61 (1) | 40 (4) | 63 (2) | 67 (1) | 43 | 60 | 18 | 61 | 56 | 56 | 1 | 4/7F | ||
| 4 | ▶ Lamorna Rudieb 3y 24 | A D Scott — 15% R41 W6 P19 Trainer form — last 3 months | 57 | 50 | 37 (5) | 19 (5) | 24 (3) | 61 (4) | 69 (1) | 53 (4) | 70 (1) | 63 (1) | 56 (2) | 56 (2) | 39 | 32 | - | 38 | 52 | 47 | 2 | 15/8 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Ballycleary Bonod 4y 15 | D D Porter — 17% R509 W89 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | 50 | 54 | 60 (2) | 48 (4) | 52 (4) | 56 (3) | 71 (1) | 51 (3) | 45 (5) | 68 (1) | 41 (4) | 50 (4) | 29 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 56 | 47 | 3 | 9/2 | ||
| 6 | ▶ So Its Flashb 2yN/R 6 | K J Crocker — 15% R143 W22 P77 Trainer form — last 3 months | 51 | 50 | 75 (1) | 54 (2) | 43 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 54 | 50 | - | 50 | - | 18 | - | - | ||
Makeit Lottie is the predicted winner and the composite score (56 — highest in the field) supports the selection. The most recent open race form is genuinely strong: 2nd at A5 in 29.57s (P64) just last week, and a win at A6 in 29.86s (P67) the time before. Those are fast, competitive times. EP 71 and bend 64 confirm this dog moves well early and handles the first bend cleanly. Trainer F J Gray at 26% is a moderate-awareness signal. Track suitability 60 and distance suitability 61 are both solid — this is a genuine Towcester 500m performer. The two major concerns must be acknowledged honestly. First, the critical trial warning: 3 of the last 6 races have been trials, which inflates the apparent density of recent runs and makes form assessment less reliable. Second and more structurally significant: Makeit Lottie is a confirmed Fader (CS 0) at 500m on Towcester's galloping layout. A Fader at this trip will lead through the early bends but is at real risk of weakening in the final 100-150m as the closers come through. T3 sits at 17.48% — a neutral trap, no structural tailwind or headwind. The prediction model has selected this dog based on composite score and form, and the open race form does justify it — but punters should be aware the Fader concern is genuine at this distance.
Best recent open form in the field, two consecutive wins at A6/A7, improving trajectory P70→P63→P57→P56, Closer profile at 500m. Main danger to the prediction and the AI Pick selection. Neutral draw is the only structural negative.
Dominant draw and strong trainer but worst speed in field and declining recent form. The structural T1 advantage is real but the individual data undermines it too severely to make this a credible pick.
Extraordinary S3 win most recently but distance suitability is low for this 500m test and EP 0 means starting from the back. Strong trainer signal keeps this in the mix for a place but a win requires pace collapse that may not materialise.
Good last run (2nd, P68) but inconsistent broader form, weak trainer, borderline-dead draw. Not expected to feature at the business end of this race.
Dead trap, no open form, only trial performances. Cannot be assessed reliably. Structural and individual signals both point away from a competitive run. Oppose.
T1 is very strongly dominant at 31.67% from 221 runs — nearly double the expected baseline. But Fabulous Shelby in T1 has speed 22 (worst in field) and declining recent form. The structural advantage of T1 is not matched by a strong individual. T3 (pick) sits at 17.48% — neutral, slight headwind. Fader profile at 500m galloping Towcester is the primary analytical concern for the predicted winner.
T1:31.67% T2:22.47% T3:17.48% T4:17.47% T5:14.85% T6:12.3%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Fabulous Shelby | 51 | 37 | All-Rounder |
2Fabulous Shona | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Makeit Lottie | 71 | 0 | Fader |
4Lamorna Rudie | 49 | 63 | Closer |
5Ballycleary Bono | 45 | 75 | Closer |
6So Its Flash | 60 | 35 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.