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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Guinness Ladd 2y 15 | A Welch — 15% R313 W47 P159 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 43 | 36 (5) | 36 (3) | 34 (5) | 55 (1) | 32 (5) | 40 (4) | 46 (2) | 37 (3) | 26 (6) | 38 (3) | 18 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 28 | 3 | 9/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Freyas Tigerb 2y 7 | D D Porter — 17% R521 W90 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 48 | 47 (4) | 33 (5) | 56 (2) | 50 (3) | 38 (4) | 33 (6) | 44 (2) | 45 (4) | 60 (1) | 35 (3) | 13 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 28 | 5 | 11/4 | |
| 3 | ▶ Ardera Ellab 3y 18 | K J Crocker — 16% R142 W23 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 55 | 30 (5) | 30 (4) | 40 (4) | 34 (4) | 40 (3) | 36 (4) | 32 (5) | 28 (5) | 43 (3) | 35 (5) | 12 | 6 | - | 6 | 34 | 25 | 4 | 6/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Wessex Baby Blueb 4y 43 | K J Crocker — 16% R142 W23 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 34 | 61 | 27 (5) | 16 (6) | 27 (5) | 28 (6) | 25 (6) | 25 (5) | 25 (4) | 46 (4) | 38 (4) | 36 (2) | 38 | 11 | 25 | 11 | 24 | 23 | 6 | 16/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Rowington Rused 2y 16 | D D Porter — 17% R521 W90 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 49 | 29 (6) | 28 (6) | 41 (5) | 37 (3) | 53 (1) | 36 (4) | 39 (3) | 32 (6) | 39 (4) | 40 (4) | 20 | 16 | 17 | 22 | 36 | 30 | 1 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Carlow Townd 4y 27 | A Welch — 15% R313 W47 P159 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 60 | 62 (1) | 53 (2) | 56 (1) | 25 (3) | 24 (3) | 28 (1) | 23 (3) | 26 (6) | 18 (6) | 40 (4) | 20 | 20 | 25 | 17 | 35 | 29 | 2 | 2/1F | |
The model's first selection, Rowington Ruse holds the highest performance score in the field at 36 (shared with Guinness Lad) and the best composite at 30. He is trained by D D Porter alongside Freyas Tiger, and both carry modest win percentages under this handler at this venue. The honest concern with Rowington Ruse is his recent form trajectory: fourths in his last three outings from different trap positions — T6 on March 24, T6 on March 17, and T5 on February 26 — running times of 30.88, 30.64, and 31.07. These are not the performances of a dog with a strike about to happen; they suggest a consistent mid-field runner who finds the right level of competition but cannot convert. Suitability scores of 16/22/20 are better than most of his rivals but still modest in absolute terms. Trap five trends at 14.29% in the thin A8 data — below neutral. His All-Rounder running style at 500m means he neither gains nor loses significantly from positional factors, but the lack of recent forward progress is a concern. The model identifies him as the most complete overall profile in a very compressed field — a marginal edge at best.
PRIMARY DANGER. Recent winner at this track and distance in the best time produced by any runner in today's field. If taking a position in R9, the Carlow Town / Rowington Ruse combination makes sense. The model slightly favours Ruse, but Carlow Town's winning form gives a legitimate alternative case.
Outside chance at best. Runs consistently in A8 company but cannot convert placings into wins and lacks the ratings profile to be competitive with the front two in this field. Likely to again find trouble in the early bend and finish mid-field.
Third-place finisher, almost by disposition. Cannot be backed with confidence to challenge the market leaders and is likely to finish in the same positional range as her recent runs suggest.
Set to struggle. Worst-suited dog in the field and recent form shows no forward momentum. Expect another finish in the bottom half.
CRITICAL TRIAL WARNING. Disregard. Trial form cannot be equated with genuine competitive racing. This runner presents near-zero betting interest until proven otherwise in classified company.
THIN SAMPLE WARNING: The entire A8 500m dataset at Towcester spans fewer than 100 runs, making any structural trap conclusions unreliable. T6 trends at 27.59% and T3 at 25% historically but with sample sizes of 29 and 32 runs respectively, these figures carry wide confidence intervals. Analysis must weight individual form and running styles above ML structural signals.
T6: 27.59% (29 runs) | T3: 25.00% (32 runs) | T5: 14.29% (14 runs) | T1: 10.34% (29 runs) | T2: 10.34% (29 runs)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Guinness Lad | 46 | 64 | Closer |
2Freyas Tiger | 47 | 69 | Closer |
3Ardera Ella | 55 | 31 | Fader |
4Wessex Baby Blue | 45 | 55 | Closer |
5Rowington Ruse | 53 | 45 | All-Rounder |
6Carlow Town | 62 | 18 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.