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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Makeit Poppyb 2y 16 | F J Gray — 21% R350 W73 P188 Trainer form — last 3 months | 58 | 62 | 79 (2) | 59 (4) | 46 (6) | 52 (5) | 73 (3) | 99 (1) | 69 (5) | 81 (3) | 77 (1) | 72 (1) | 58 | 55 | 30 | 30 | 75 | 65 | 1 | 7/4F | ||
| 2 | ▶ Ballycowen Lilb 3y 17 | P V Swadden — 21% R104 W22 P54 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | 97 (1) | 55 (3) | 93 (1) | 53 (4) | 52 (4) | 46 (5) | 51 (5) | 58 (4) | 71 (3) | 66 (3) | 34 | 16 | - | - | 65 | 51 | 5 | 3/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Fabulous Sorab 2yN/R 23 | L G Tuffin — 25% R277 W68 P147 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | 41 (6) | 52 (3) | 62 (4) | 41 (6) | 41 (6) | 67 (2) | 48 (4) | 52 (3) | 46 (5) | 53 (5) | 54 | 28 | - | - | 53 | 49 | - | - | ||
| 4 | ▶ Silverhill Hankd 4y 24 | R E Allder — 7% R15 W1 P10 Trainer form — last 3 months | 41 | 18 | 48 (4) | 52 (4) | 56 (2) | 97 (1) | 42 (4) | 57 (3) | 79 (3) | 74 (3) | 92 (2) | 69 (2) | 42 | 45 | 11 | 23 | 71 | 59 | 4 | 6/1 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Essjay Soniab 2y 26 | F J Gray — 21% R350 W73 P188 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | 74 | 55 (5) | 99 (1) | 89 (2) | 71 (3) | 84 (1) | 95 (2) | 93 (2) | 87 (3) | 78 (2) | 65 (4) | 37 | 39 | 15 | 31 | 81 | 65 | 2 | 5/2 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Wellstreet Cathb 3y 25 | K J Crocker — 15% R143 W22 P77 Trainer form — last 3 months | 47 | 38 | 49 (5) | 79 (1) | 67 (2) | 55 (3) | 98 (1) | 59 (4) | 68 (3) | 63 (2) | 52 (5) | 58 (4) | 41 | 32 | 30 | 30 | 67 | 56 | 3 | 4/1 | ||
Makeit Poppy is the pick and has the most compelling staying credentials in the race. The most recent run produced a P99 — a win at S2 Towcester in 43.43s — which is an exceptional staying performance by any standard. Before that, two runs at Romford OR3 (5th and 3rd) in 35-36 second times show versatility across staying trips. Further back are wins at A4 (29.73s) and A5 (29.82s). The trajectory P99→P69→P81→P77→P72 (newest to oldest) shows genuine quality, with the staying win being the standout. Pure Closer (CS 100, EP 0) is exactly the right profile for 712m — this distance requires a dog to save energy early and power home over the final sections, which is precisely what CS 100 delivers. Bend 62 is above average. Speed 58 is the second-highest in the field. Trainer F J Gray at 26% is a moderate-awareness signal but Gray also trains Essjay Sonia (T5) in this race. Track suitability 55 and trap suit 58 are both good. Distance suit 30 is somewhat low — but the recent S2 win demonstrates proven staying ability regardless of the algorithm's score. T1 trap data (20%) is unreliable at this sample size. The main rival is Essjay Sonia (T5, Gray stablemate) who was 2nd last time in S2 (P94).
Best bend in field (74), highest perf (81), P94 in S2 last time. Same trainer as pick. The primary threat to Makeit Poppy — these two will fight out the finish. Market will separate them. Mark as danger.
Distance debutant at 712m with Fader profile — both indicate a dog likely to lead early and tie up badly in the back straight. Hard to support at this trip.
Distance debutant at 712m, poor recent A3 form, and Fader profile. Strong trainer is the only positive. Unlikely to feature competitively over this trip.
Genuine S2 experience with a P93 recently, but bend 18 (worst in field) and trainer 8% are significant negatives. Competitive at this trip but unlikely to beat the pick.
Previous S2 win is notable but Fader (CS 0) at 712m is an extreme pace mismatch. Will lead early and fade badly in the final 200-300m. Hard to support against pure closers at this distance.
CAUTION: Only 56 total runs at Towcester 712m S2 in the ML dataset. No trap data is reliable at this sample size. Analysis must rely on individual form, pace profiles, and staying distance characteristics. Composite rank 1 shows 27.27% from 22 runs — marginally meaningful. Race dominated by pure staying dogs versus distance debutants.
T1:20% T2:0% T3:11.11% T4:40% T5:28.57% T6:22.22%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 712m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Makeit Poppy | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Ballycowen Lil | 100 | 0 | Fader |
3Fabulous Sora | 100 | 0 | Fader |
4Silverhill Hank | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Essjay Sonia | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Wellstreet Cath | 100 | 0 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.